Breaking down the National League Division Series

Oct 2, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Workers prepare the field for workouts the day before game one of the 2014 NLDS at Dodgers Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

At points during this National League season, it looked like the San Francisco Giants and Milwaukee Brewers would run away with their divisions. But here we are in the postseason without the Brewers, and with the Giants sneaking in with a Wild Card victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

So now we have a rematch of last year’s NLCS and the championship series we were supposed to have in 2012 if the Cardinals hadn’t spoiled it. This round will start with the Giants looking to extend their even year magic against Stephen Strasburg in his first career postseason start, and will be followed up with the best pitching matchup of the first round, featuring Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers.

These series should go far beyond these initial matchups, so here’s the breakdown of the National League Division Series.

Sep 27, 2014; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher

(37) throws during the second inning inning against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit:

-USA TODAY Sports

Pitching

There may not have been a team in the wild card games that would have been effected as much as the Giants were by pitching their ace. Bumgarner was never in any danger of letting up runs in the NL Wild Card game, and dominated in all nine innings, but now he won’t be able to pitch until at least Game Three. On the other hand, the Nationals have been able to set up their rotation since the middle of September. Because of this, the pitching match-ups look like they may be lopsided for the games that they have set:

1. Jake Peavy RHP (7-13, 3.73 ERA) vs Stephen Strasburg RHP (14-11, 3.14 ERA)
2. Tim Hudson RHP (9-13, 3.57 ERA) vs Jordan Zimmerman RHP (14-5, 2.66 ERA)
3. Doug Fister RHP (16-6, 2.41 ERA) vs TBD

Strasburg will be pitching at home, where he is most comfortable — his home ERA is 1.25 points better at home — but he will go up against one of the hottest pitchers in the NL. Peavy has a 1.15 ERA in his last six starts. Zimmerman should have an advantage over Tim Hudson, especially with his momentum coming in. And the rest will be determined later.

As for the bullpens, neither team is working with the bullpen they thought they had. Rafael Soriano has been shaky lately, and will not be closing games in the playoffs, while the Giants replaced Sergio Romo as their closer during the regular season. Both will be on the playoff rosters, but the bullpens are just about even. Despite these changes, the Giants and Nationals were both in the top five in bullpen earned run average.

With Mad-Bum not being available until the middle game of the series, the Nationals have the advantage in pitching.

Hitting

During the regular season, these two teams were comparable on offense, the Giants scored just 21 runs fewer than the Nationals, but there is a distinct advantage in this series. The Nationals are just starting to get to full strength in their lineup, while the Giants are drowning in injuries. Morse and Pagan will not be playing, while Ryan Zimmerman will be close to full strength for the first time in weeks.

Without Pagan, the Giants have struggled mightily, and that will probably continue. I give the Nationals a large advantage here.

Jul 13, 2013; San Diego, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants right fielder

(8) makes a diving catch during the eighth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

 Fielding

Neither team has been outstanding defensively this year, but the Nationals have been a bit better. That being said, one thing to look out for is throwing across the diamond for the Nationals. Anthony Rendon and Ian Desmond have combined for 24 throwing errors this season, even with Adam LaRoche playing first.

The Giants’ leaders in errors are Pablo Sandoval and Brandon Crawford, so the left side of the infield will be the spot to watch defensively in this series, but because of the throwing errors, I give the slightest of margins to the Giants.

X-Factor

For each of these teams, the X-factor will be a player who will need to adjust to a new role. The Giants have sent Tim Lincecum to the bullpen for another postseason run, and although he did it in the 2012 postseason, he has a majority of his appearances as a starter. He may need to dominate in a number of outings with Hudson expected to pitch two games in this series. Hudson has averaged just over four innings per start in September, so Lincecum may be asked to get more than three outs regularly.

As for the Nats, Ryan Zimmerman will be coming off the bench all series long. Zimmerman has just 24 plate appearances as a pinch hitter in his 10-year career. But in those limited roles, he has been successful. He has seven hits, three for extra bases and seven RBIs. If he can make an impact on a few games this series, the Nats will have a good chance.

Verdict: WAS in 5

To be honest, I wanted to say Nats in 4, but it’s an even year and the Giants will get Bumgarner for at least one start. I think the Nats have too much going for them this year, but I’m sure the Giants will make it interesting.

Jul 20, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher

(22) throws to a St. Louis Cardinals batter during the sixth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Cardinals vs Dodgers

The Cardinals and Dodgers squared off in one of the most exciting series of last year’s playoffs, and now they square off in the first round. Despite making it all the way to the World Series, the Cardinals look completely different. They have a new second baseman, shortstop and right fielder – and Matt Adams is playing every day.

The Dodgers have stayed almost the same, except for some additions to the bullpen and rotation. They will be dealing with injuries with their starter, Huyn-jin Ryu, who was recently cleared to start Game Three.

The NLCS was decided by a couple of losses from Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw, and that may be what the Cardinals need again this year.

Sep 17, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher

(50) throws to a Milwaukee Brewers batter during the third inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Pitching

It’s rare that Wainwright is the second-best starter on the mound, but in his games in this series, he will probably be just that. The Game One matchup will likely be the best of the entire playoffs, but the rest of the series will be just as intriguing. The matchups are as follows:

1. Wainwright RHP (20-9, 2.38 ERA) vs Kershaw LHP (21-3, 1.77 ERA)
2. Lance Lynn RHP (15-10, 2.74 ERA) vs Zack Greinke (17-8, 2..71 ERA)
3. Ryu LHP (14-7, 3.38 ERA) vs John Lackey RHP (14-10, 3.82 ERA)
4. TBD vs Shelby Miller RHP (10-9, 3.74 ERA)

There’s no debating that Kershaw is the best starter in the series, but beyond that, the Cardinals might have a slight edge. Starters 2-3-4 is where the Cardinals get some separation, especially if the Dodgers have go go to a fourth starter.

In the bullpen, the Dodgers have a slew of former closers, but the only one that really performed well this season has been their current closer, Kenley Jansen. They also have Brandon League and J.P. Howell, who have been effective, but Brian Wilson has been less-than-impressive.

The Cardinals have had issues of their own. Trevor Rosenthal has struggled at times this year, Pat Neshek has been hit-or-miss lately and Carlos Martinez was up-and-down this season. However, Martinez has been good lately, Neshek still had a 1.87 ERA this season, and Rosenthal was near the league lead in saves.

This should be one of the better-pitched series in the playoffs, but Kershaw gives the Dodgers a slight edge.

Offense

The Cardinals would be a close offensive match for the Cubs, Rays or Reds, but none of those teams made the playoffs because of their struggling offenses. The Dodgers have the sixth-highest scoring offense in baseball. There is no match here, especially with Matt Kemp swinging a hot bat.

Unless the Cardinals can get Jhonny Peralta and Matt Holliday hot in the middle of the order, they will have a tough time scoring.

The Dodgers have a clear advantage here.

Sep 4, 2014; Milwaukee, WI, USA; St. Louis Cardinals center fielder

(19) makes a leaping catch on a fly ball during the sixth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Defense

The Cardinals did improve one aspect of their team with their offseason moves this year, their defense. The Cardinals had the second-most defensive runs saved in the National League, behind only the Reds. Their infield has been one of the best all year long, and Jon Jay made big strides in improving his range.

The Dodgers have 26 DRS, good for fifth in the NL, but the rest of their metrics show that they can struggle with the routine plays. Hanley Ramirez has 15 errors and the worst range rating of any NL shortstop.

The Cardinals have an edge here.

X-Factor

The Cardinals have starters that are prepared to go deep into games, but if they don’t, they will be backed by last season’s breakout playoff performer, Michael Wacha. Wacha beat Kershaw twice in the NLCS and didn’t lose a game until the final game of the World Series against the Boston Red Sox. Now, Wacha will be coming out of the bullpen. If he can get his control back, something he has struggled with since coming of the DL, he will play a key role in this series.

For the Dodgers, they will be relying on a guy who is also working his way back from injury. Ryu hasn’t pitched since Sept. 12, but the Dodgers will be counting on him to pitch the first game in St. Louis. If the Cardinals win one of the two games in LA, Ryu may have the most important start of the series.

Verdict: LA in 5

This is part hope, part belief. I really want to see a Kershaw-Wainwright Game Five for all the marbles. For this to happen, the Redbirds will have to find some offense. I think the Dodgers are the better team, but  anything can happen with the Cardinals in the playoffs.