Breaking down the American League Championship Series
Oct 5, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; ; Baltimore Orioles fans celebrate after game three of the 2014 ALDS baseball playoff game at Comerica Park. The Orioles move on to the ALCS with 2-1 win over the Tigers. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
The only way you could have picked the Kansas City Royals and the Baltimore Orioles to make the American League Championship Series is if you were just picking names out of a hat. The last time the Royals were in the ALCS, they didn’t have to win an ALDS series because the ALDS didn’t exist. The last time the Orioles were in this position, Cal Ripken was playing third, not sitting in the play-by-play booth. But now, with the help of outstanding pitching and two very different offenses, the Royals and Orioles will fight for American League supremacy.
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The Royals stole each of the three games in their series with a combination of foot speed and an uncommon power surge from the line-up, while the Orioles blew the Detroit Tigers away with the pure power that they showed throughout the season. Both teams will carry and unbelievable amount of momentum into the ALCS, but which of these unexpected combatants will move on to the World Series.
Oct 5, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Baltimore Orioles relief pitcher
Andrew Miller(48) pitches against the Detroit Tigers during game three of the 2014 ALDS baseball playoff game at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Pitching
Both of these teams started this season with some questions in the starting rotation.
The Royals entered the season with a 37-year-old in Bruce Chen, a rookie in Yordano Ventura and just one guy, James Shields, with a career ERA under four entering the season. Danny Duffy jumped into the rotation mid-season, and the rotation put up the fourth-best ERA in the American League.
The Orioles added one of the most expensive additions to their rotation in the offseason, with the addition of Ubaldo Jimenez. But the big contract would not make the rotation any better, as Jimenez would be a combination of hurt and bad during the season. But the rest of the rotation for the Orioles made them number five in the American League in ERA. They were tenth in the AL in innings pitched but they were able to rely on their deep bullpen.
Both of these teams are keeping their rotation close to the vest — only three starters have been announced to this point — so it’s hard to tell who will have the advantage, and with the season ERAs of the rotations seperated by 0.01, there’s no help there either. So, the rotations are a toss-up.
Even though the rotations posted good numbers this season, both of these teams are defined by their bullpens. The Orioles and Royals tied for the most saves in the American League with 53, and each had an ERA under 3.30. The Royals relied heavily on three main relievers, Kelvin Herrera (70 games), Wade Davis (71 games) and Greg Holland (65 games). These three relievers combined for a 1.28 ERA.
But the Orioles have a great trio of their own. Zach Britton(1.65 ERA), Darren O’Day(1.70 ERA) and Andrew Miller(2.02 ERA) make up one of the best used bullpen in the Major Leagues. The Orioles will have more depth, with some combination of Brian Matusz, T.J. McFarland and Miguel Gonzalez.
The Royals look like they are wearing down a bit, with Herrera leaving a game in the ALDS and Wade Davis getting hit hard, the Orioles have a narrow edge in bullpen. Plus, when Buck Showalter is pushing the buttons, the Orioles will be in a good position to hold a lead in the late innings.
The Orioles will have a small edge in pitching.
Sep 25, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Kansas City Royals base runner
Terrance Gore(0) scores a run against the Chicago White Sox during the eighth inning at U.S Cellular Field. Kansas City defeats Chicago 6-3. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
Offense
Like I said in the opening, these teams couldn’t be more different offensively. This is the first playoff series that the team with the most steals in the regular season will face the team with the least steals in the regular season. The last playoff series matching the regualr season’s most homer happy team with the team with the least homers in the Majors was the 1985 World Series.
Despite having just 95 homers in the regular season, the Royals will bring power bats to the series as well. The Royals slugged as many homers in the ALDS as the Orioles did, but scored the fewest runs of any of the four teams that advanced to the championship series.
Mike Moustakas is hotter now than he has been all year, which isn’t saying much, but you can’t argue with a pair of homers in three games. Eric Hosmer, who is hitting .500 in the playoffs, Billy Butler, who is stealing bases now, and Alex Gordon, who is getting on base at a .368 clip in the playoffs, round out a middle of the order that is playing as well as they have all year.
The Orioles have the most powerful line-up from top to bottom. Guys like Jonathan Schoop, Nick Markakis and Steve Pearce have supplemented the middle of the order power of Nelson Cruz and Adam Jones. In the playoffs, nearly ever game comes down to the wire, and when you can put a few runs on the board with one swing you can flip the games.
While the Royals line-up lacks deep power, they make up for it with blazing speed. In the late innings, a walk to Billy Butler can turn into a triple with guys like Terrance Gore and Jarrod Dyson coming off the bench, the Royals can flip the game just as quickly.
The Royals have suddenly found their power, while this Orioles team will never be able to just find speed. For that reason, I give the Royals a slight edge on the offensive side.
Oct 5, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder
Lorenzo Cain(6) makes a diving catch for the out as left fielder
Alex Gordon(4) celebrates in the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Angels during game three of the 2014 ALDS baseball playoff game at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 8-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Defense
The Royals and Orioles were the top two defensive teams in Major League Baseball in the regular season in Fangraphs defensive rating. The Royals outfield has been flashy with the leather in the outfield all season long, which continued into the playoffs. They have three of the best outfielders in the sport at defensive runs saved(DRS) in Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain and Nori Aoki.
While the Royals use their outfield as the cornerstone of their fielding, the Orioles have some of the best defensive infielders in the game. Unfortunately for them, however, most of them are hurt. Manny Machado, a Gold Glover in 2013, and Chris Davis, one of the most athletic defenders at first base, will not play in this series. One guy who will play in this series is J.J. Hardy, two-time reigning Gold Glove winner. Behind him is the second part of the Orioles strong up the middle defense, Adam Jones. Jones is also a two time reigning Gold Glove winner, and has the second best center field arm in baseball.
The one position the Orioles might rely on most heavily in this series is catcher. Caleb Joseph had the best caught stealing percentage of any AL catcher with more than 75 games played.The problem is he only hit .207. The Orioles have been going with Nick Hundley, who hit .233 during the regular season, and threw out just 19 percent of base stealers. I think Buck will end up going with Joseph to try to slow down the Royals.
Even though they have a good defense, the Orioles are not on the same level as the Royals. The Orioles like to hit the ball in the air, and the Royals outfield likes to not let flyballs hit the ground. The Royals have a good advantage here.
Oct 5, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals players celebrate after defeating the Los Angeles Angels in game three of the 2014 ALDS baseball playoff game at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 8-3 advancing to the ALCS against the Baltimore Orioles. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports
The Verdict
When you’re running this fast it’s hard to slow down. The Royals are clicking on all cylinders right now. Not to say the Orioles are playing poorly, but the Royals just have more going on for them. They have speed, defense, pitching and now some power. For that reason, I think the Royals win in seven games.