Breaking down the National League Championship Series
Oct 7, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants high five fans along the outfield wall after defeating the Washington Nationals in game four of the 2014 NLDS baseball playoff game at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
The St. Louis Cardinals and the San Francisco Giants are meeting again in the National League Championship Series. The Cardinals made it four straight trips to the NLCS and the Giants have never lost a playoff series with Bruce Bochy as their manager. The Cardinals made it here by beating the best pitcher in the game twice, while the Giants beat the best team in the National League in four games.
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The Giants hit .125 with runners in scoring position against the Nationals and the Cardinals scored 72 percent of their runs in the seventh inning of the games.
The rematch of the 2012 NLCS will have many of the same faces, but some of the players that came up the biggest will not be there. Angel Pagan, Marco Scutaro and Barry Zito for the Giants, and Carlos Beltran, David Freese and Chris Carpenter for the Cardinals all played key roles in the result in 2012 and won’t play in this series.
This is a rematch in name and hopefully in drama, and this is how they stack up now.
October 3, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Pitching
Both of these teams finished off their series early, meaning they could save their aces that would have probably pitched in game five. Because of that we are in store for the best pitching match-ups that these two teams can offer in this series, which will start in game one. The Giants will sent their ace, Madison Bumgarner, to the mound while the Cardinals will counter with Adam Wainwright.
Despite both being aces, these two starters have been very different down the stretch in 2014. Since August, Adam Wainwright has been fighting some dead-arm, resulting in a 5.17 ERA in the month. He appeared to figure it out in September with a 1.38 ERA and a 5-0 record. He was smacked around by the Dodgers in game one, raising the question of dead-arm again.
Madison Bumgarner was 6-2 from August on and has been the best starting pitcher in the playoffs so far. He has 16 innings pitched with an ERA of 1.13 and just 10 hits allowed. The Giants might have an advantage in game one, but if Wainwright can return to form the Cardinals will have a good answer.
The Cardinals have announced their rotation for the first four games. It will be the same as their first round. Lance Lynn, John Lackey and Shelby Miller will follow Wainwright.
The Giants have done exactly the opposite. Bumgardner is the only starter they have announced for the series but he will be followed by Tim Hudson, Ryan Vogelsong and Jake Peavy in some order. Hudson will be making the first Championship Series start of his 15 year career.
The Cardinals had a starters ERA 0.30 points better than the Giants this season, which they earned from their depth. The Cardinals should have an advantage after the first game.
As for the bullpens, the Giants had a distinct regular season advantage. Their bullpen ERA was 0.61 points better than that of the Cardinals. The Giants will bring depth from the bullpen, with four bullpen pitchers with ERAs below 3.15. Yhe Cardinals have just three.
The Cardinals will have an advantage in the closer department, as they have a playoff experienced closer in Trevor Rosenthal. However, the Giants might have the better closer in Santiago Casilla. Casilla is yet to allow a hit in three playoff appearances this season.
The most important pitcher in this series might be Jeremy Affeldt. The Cardinals’ left-handed hitters slugged five of the team’s seven home runs. Affeldt will have the task of trying to get Matt Carpenter, the hottest hitter in baseball, out in this series.
In his career, Carpenter is 3-for-5 with walk against Affeldt but each of the hits are singles. If Affeldt can keep Carpenter from piling up the extra-base hits, the Giant will probably be happy with his performance. Affeldt has also retired Matt Adams both times he faced him, Kolton Wong the one time he faced him and Jon Jay five of the six times he faced him.
Affeldt will be key in this series and if Bruce Bochy can keep him in good situations, he should be successful.
The pitching is a toss-up. The Giants have a slight edge in the bullpen and the Cardinals have a bit more rotational depth, so the deciding factor will likely be Adam Wainwright.
Oct 4, 2014; Washington, DC, USA; Mandatory Credit:
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
The Cardinals, much like the Kansas City Royals in the American League, struggled to hit home runs in the regular season and, just as the Royals did, the Cardinals found their power stroke for the playoffs. The Cardinals homered seven times in the four-game NLDS, taking Clayton Kershaw deep three times and piling it on against the Dodgers bullpen. The Giants were able to pick up a timely home run from Brandon Belt but were anemic otherwise.
The Giants hit just .125 with runners in scoring position on 40 at-bats. Of the runs scored in the clinching game four, the Giants scored three runs on plays that never left the infield: a bases loaded walk, a groundout to first and a wild pitch.
The Cardinals regained some of the RISP magic of the 2013 season, hitting .310 with RISP in 29 at-bats. They strung together hits against Kershaw, often ending their rallys with multi-run home runs. The Cardinals swatted two three-run home runs and a pair of two-run shots. If the Cardinals can carry this power into the NLCS, they will have a big advantage.
The Cardinals appear to have a large advantage, bringing the much hotter offense into the series.
Oct 6, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Defense
The Cardinals will bring one of the best defenses in the baseball into this series. According to Fangraphs, the Cardinals were 30.5 runs better than the league average throughout the season, while the Giants were 1.4 runs below league average.
The spot where the Cardinals were the weakest this season was in left field but Matt Holliday will likely be the best left fielder in this series. In the NLDS the Giants used Travis Ishikawa, a natural first baseman, in left field.
Mike Morse might be able to play in this series but even he isn’t an improvement in left. Morse was a negative 10.8 in Fangraph UZR in 579 innings in the outfield. If expanded over a full season, Morse would have been 25 runs below the league average.
The Cardinals also have defensive replacements they can bring in in the late innings. Peter Bourjos and Pete Kozma are available off the bench to bring range to the defense up the middle.
I think the Cardinals have a big defensive advantage in this sereis.
Oct 7, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Verdict
The Cardinals are playing about as well as they have all season and with home-field advantage in this seires, I think they will sneak past the Giants. The Cardinals have some mojo going after defeating the NL Cy Young award winner for the second straight year.
If they can get to the Giants ace one or more times this could be a short series, but I don’t see that happening. I think home-field swings this the Cardinal’s way and they win in six games.