In the postseason everyone is watching; therefore, a player’s performance within such a small sample size is blown out of proportion. This recency bias turns bad players good and vice versa. Most of the time, however, that is not the case and the adage that “talent plays” usually holds true.
Yusmeiro Petit‘s talent has somewhat played this postseason, as he was covertly excellent in the regular season, but in the playoffs so far, though admittedly in an extremely small sample size, he has been overtly fantastic. And in nine innings of work this October, Petit has allowed zero runs to score while striking out eleven batters per nine innings. He is pitching well at the right time, pundits will declare, yet unknown to them he has been pitching “well” all season long.
In 39 games (117 innings pitched) in 2014, twelve of which were starts, the right-handed pitcher posted a 3.69 ERA, 2.78 FIP, and 1.7 fWAR. His 10.23 K/9 was an astonishing 2.5 percentage point above the 7.73 K/9 2014 MLB average, while his 1.69 BB/9 was an astonishing 1.2 percentage points below the 2.89 BB/9 2014 MLB average. As one should be able to see, Petit’s peripherals were tremendous in the regular season.
So, no, it should not be assumed that his success was, in large part, due to pitching half his games in the pitcher friendly confines of AT&T Park — that is, of course, if one was hypothesizing that was the case. Petit does, though, allow a lot of fly balls. In fact, he produced a 44.8 FB% in 2014, which was 10.2 percentage above the 34.4 FB% 2014 MLB average. Throughout his career he has been a fly ball pitcher, and while pitching half his games in AT&T Park certainly does not hurt, as I said previously, it is not a huge factor in his prosperity.
Hopefully, the prior paragraphs have assuaged any reserves some may have had about Petit’s talent. If not, then maybe his almost equally impressive 2013 numbers below will convince you otherwise.
2013 (48 IP): 3.56 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 0.8 fWAR
Okay. Is everyone on board with the fact that Petit has conversation-worthy talent? At this juncture it should be obvious that he is, indeed, a very good pitcher. This, now, takes me into what I came here to talk about: the San Francisco Giants should start Yusmeiro Petit in 2015.
Yes, I am well-aware of the splits. Petit composed a masterful 1.84 ERA in 49 innings out of the pen, compared to an ugly 5.03 ERA in 68 innings as a starter in 2014. Those numbers, however, are in a small sample size and should not be read too much into. Even if the small sample size argument that I use quite frequently fails to persuade you, perhaps the 29-year-old’s underlying numbers shown below composed as a starter and reliever in ’14 will.
Numbers as a starter in 2014: 3.59 FIP, 9.79 K/9, 1.46 BB/9, 1.46 HR/9 .309 BABIP, 59.1 LOB%
Numbers as a reliever in 2014: 1.66 FIP, 10.84 K/9, 2.02 BB/9, 0.18 HR/9, .261 BABIP, 78.8 LOB%
There are a few interesting things here that are worth talking about. With that said, the difference between his left on base percentages as a starter and reliever tell us a lot of what we need to know: he encountered some very bad luck preventing runners from scoring when they reached base. It is worth nothing that the 2014 MLB average was a 73.0 LOB%.
So, yeah, unless Petit has a subjective psychological problem keeping runners from scoring as a starter, opposed to as a reliever (where one actually inherit runners), then this should deviate towards the league-average in’15. Also, if one is thinking that he possibly is one of those “unclutch” pitchers, I implore you to keep in his mind his 0.00 postseason ERA.
Anyway, Petit is not a free agent until 2017, and right now he is costing the National League Champions pennies on the dollar. Jake Peavy, from my understanding of his 2015 player option, is a free agent; Matt Cain has health and performance questions; Tim Lincecum was relegated to the bullpen towards the end of the year; and Ryan Vogelsong is a free agent. There are numerous question marks surrounding the Giants’ 2015 rotation. Giving Petit a chance to start will alleviate a lot of that looming uncertainty.