Prepare yourselves, Red Sox Nation. Could the unthinkable happen? Could Jon Lester jump ship to sign a deal with the New York Yankees this winter? It’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility.
The southpaw, who was traded from Boston to Oakland near the trade deadline this season, has said he remains open to a return to the Red Sox, but a recent report from MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch in which he answers readers’ questions, indicate that Lester, as well as Max Scherzer and James Shields, could be pursued by the Bronx Bombers this offseason.
New York, which has not made the postseason since 2012, has countless question marks heading into 2014. Will Alex Rodriguez produce at age 40 after missing the entire 2014 season due to his PED suspension? Will C.C. Sabathia‘s arm hold up for the duration of a season? Will Masahiro Tanaka return to his early season form before he was marred by injury? These are just a handful of the question marks for recently-extended GM Brian Cashman and his team heading into 2015.
Will Sabathia and Tanaka be healthy? What production will the Yankees get from A-Rod?
According to Hoch, New York is expected to be a major player in the free agent market, although signing another top-level starting pitcher is contingent on the Steinbrenners signing off on another big deal just once season removed from inking Tanaka, the most highly-sought after arm on last winter’s market, to a seven-year, $155 million deal that includes an opt-out clause after the 2017 campaign – which would take the right-hander through his age 28 season.
"It would not be a shock to see the Yankees connected early in free agency to any of the big names out there: Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields pacing the way, particularly if Hal Steinbrenner gives the OK to double down after last year’s $175 million investment in Masahiro Tanaka."
Shields, in my opinion, would be the most affordable, but least attractive option for New York. His struggles during the postseason (he’s allowed 15 earned runs in 19 innings of playoff work this year) are well-documented by this point, although his consistency (he’s notched at least 200 innings in every season dating back to 2007) is something that is sorely needed in the Yankees’ rotation.
Holder of a career 3.52 ERA, Shields is 33 years old come December and has not ever experienced the culture of a winning organization. Sure, Tampa Bay won during the latter portion of his tenure there, but each season, the club was an underdog contender – despite their obvious talent. Same goes for Kansas City. Even today, down 1-0 to the San Francisco Giants in the World Series, the team is a major underdog. Playing in the high-pressure market of New York is an entirely different animal.
As for Lester, the left-hander is likely to be the highest-paid free agent arm available, given his extensive postseason experience and his overall consistency and durability. This season, between the Athletics and Red Sox, he pitched to a 2.46 ERA in 32 games, although his performance in the American League Wild Card game left a bad taste in Oakland fans’ mouths. A recent ESPN New York piece offering a take on the Yankees’ potential offseason moves delved into signing Lester and what it could take to make it happen. Their verdict is one that I completely agree with, despite the admitted concerns of cost and innings pitched in the son-to-be 31-year-old’s career.
"Go for it. The Yankees should be in on Lester. They don’t have to go crazy, maybe putting a five-year limit on their offer. If someone wants to be beat that, so be it."
Scherzer, although he did not receive the praise he did during his 2013 American League Cy Young Award campaign during which he went 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA and minuscule 0.970 WHIP across 214 1/3 innings, was easily one of – if not the – best starting pitcher in the American League this side of Felix Hernandez again in 2014. He pitched more innings (220 1/3) and had more strikeouts (252 as opposed to 240) – although he did allow 44 more base hits.
Detroit hasn’t ruled out resigning him, although some have questioned the feasibility of such a move given the front office’s rules on large, long-term contracts and those already on the books for the Tigers, but should he get better offers elsewhere (which I assume he likely will), New York could be an attractive option as the team looks to move out of the Derek Jeter era and into the future.
It’s not to say that the Yankees will make big free agent splashes this winter. It was proven last year that doing so is by no means a ticket to the postseason. Focusing more resources on developing young prospects would be a long-term solution for New York, although the fan base and the media are already growing restless for postseason baseball.
Bottom line is this: Cashman needs to deliver a division-contender in 2015 or that extension he signed recently won’t look too stable for very long. Adding a front-of-the-rotation starter would be a solid first step.