Joe Maddon’s departure doesn’t mean the Rays won’t be competitive in 2015

As you should have heard by now, esteemed manager Joe Maddon has opted out of his contract with the Tampa Bay Rays. The devastating departure comes just over a week from when Andrew Friedman, one of the most highly regarded executives in baseball, left his position as the Rays’ general manager to join the lavish Los Angeles Dodgers as their President of Baseball Operations. Both, make no mistake about it, are enormous blows to an organization that has thrived despite having one of the smallest payrolls in baseball since the magical 2008 season which saw the Rays become American League Champions. With that being said, you still have to be optimistic about the Rays’ chances in 2015.

From their surplus of talented outfielders to their stunning pitching rotation, the Tampa Bay Rays seem poised to compete all year long no matter who’s managing next season. Matt Moore should be healthy at some point in ’15, bolstering an already formidable pitching staff that includes changeup-wizard Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, and Jeremy Hellickson. To really get a feel for how good this group is and is projected to be, below are the five men’s 2014 stats and their projected 2015 stats.

(Note: All projections for 2015 are courtesy of Steamer Projections) 

Alex Cobb

2014 stats: 166 1/3 IP, 3.17 K/BB, 56.2 GB%, 2.87 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 2.7 fWAR

2015 projections: 189 IP, 2.91 K/BB, 3.46 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 3.1 fWAR

Drew Smyly

2014 stats: 153 IP, 3.17 K/BB, 36.6 GB%, 3.24 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 2.3 fWAR

2015 projections: 96 IP, 2.88 K/BB, 3.53 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 0.9 fWAR

Chris Archer

2014 stats: 194 2/3 IP, 2.40 K/BB, 46.5 GB%, 3.33 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 3.1 fWAR

2015 projections: 192 IP, 2.30 K/BB, 3.94 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 1.8 fWAR

Jake Odorizzi

2014 stats: 168 IP, 2.95 K/BB, 29.9 GB%, 4.13 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 2.0 fWAR

2015 projections: 192 IP, 2.52 K/BB, 3.98 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 0.8 fWAR

Jeremy Hellickson

2014 stats: 63 2/3 IP, 2.57 K/BB, 36.5 GB%, 4.52 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 0.3 fWAR

2015 projections: 144 IP, 2.45 K/BB, 4.25 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 0.6 fWAR

What we are looking at is four to five quality pitchers (depending on your opinion of Hellickson) plus Matt Moore who was tremendous in 2013. This is young but deep and talented group that should be solid even without the guidance of Maddon.

Okay. Now that we have reviewed the Rays’ projected ’15 pitching corps, let’s review Tampa Bay’s position players.

As aforementioned the Rays have a surplus in the outfield with Wil Myers, Desmond Jennings, David DeJesus, Kevin Kiermaier, and Matt Joyce. Kiermaier shocked the world with his stupendous play last season that resonated into an impressive 119 wRC+ and 3.8 fWAR in just 364 plate appearances. Steamer sees him as a 2.6 fWAR player in ’15, and while that is still a down year in juxtaposition to his rookie season, he still is projected to be a very valuable commodity.

Myers is the headline name out of the five because of his rookie season in 2013 that saw him take home the Rookie of the Year hardware for the American League. However, he struggled in ’14, which can be largely attributed to injuries, but even when he did play (361 plate appearances) he was mediocre. Due to his excellent minor-league track record, though, Steamer has him as a respectable 2.7 fWAR player next year.

Then there is Jennings who has been a 3.2 fWAR+ player the prior three seasons. And the group is rounded out by the consistently above-average Matt Joyce and David DeJesus (sans maybe last year).

So, it is not erroneous at all to expect one of the outfielders to be dealt in the offseason, and if we are being realistic any of those outfielders could draw a sizable return.

Now that we have gotten past talking about the Rays’ plethora of outfielders, let’s discuss the rest of the team’s position players.

I’m sure you are aware of one Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay’s All-Star third basemen. Subsequently I presume you are cognizant that Longoria had his worst full season, well, ever, as he compiled a slightly above-average 107 wRC+ and 3.4 fWAR in 162 games played in ’14. Considering his .285 BABIP in 2014, which is .16 points below his career .301 BABIP, in juxtaposition to his insignificant batted ball nuances from his career and ’14 totals, I am confident saying that the third basemen’s season was an aberration. Yeah, so that is good news for the Rays, but what about the rest of the infield?

Well, Ben Zobrist is one of the most underrated players in baseball, James Loney is a quality first basemen, and Yunel Escobar is a decent shortstop. Oh, and let’s not forget that they got Nick Franklin in that David Price trade. He has a nice minor league track record that should resonate into the major leagues — if he was ever to get the opportunity at the Trop.

Finally, we conclude with pitch-framing superstar Jose Molina and defense-whiz and former on-base machine Ryan Hanigan taking turns manning behind the dish. This is probably the Rays’ biggest weakness, in truth, but then again they really don’t have too many weakness.

The last facet of the Rays, the bullpen, is hard to predict year to year because relievers are so very volatile. But you got to like that Jake McGee guy!

In conclusion, what we have here is a talented all-around club even without offseason refinements. The American League East was uncharacteristically weak in 2014, and I’m not sold on the Baltimore Orioles being close to as good as they were in ’15. So, the Rays have a very good shot at the division next season no matter who their brass are. Again, I am not saying the loss of Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman are not going to hurt, because they will. All I am saying is this Tampa Bay Rays club is in a good position to succeed in 2015.