Go on Yoan: Teams play waiting game for Moncada

Yoan Moncada (pronounced Jo-hon) has become a hot conversation of topic as MLB organizations wait for him to be cleared to by the Office of Foreign Assets Control to legally be able work in the United States.  The 6-foot, 210 pound infielder is arguably the best player teenager to leave Cuba since Chicago Cubs prospect Jorge Soler. Once he’s cleared, teams can offer him deals.

The switch hitting infielder’s potential is tremendous, as with potential to grow into an All-Star talent. He has more speed than Boston Red Sox signee Rusney Castillo and his line drive swing shows developing power to be a gap to gap hitter.  His strikeout rate is a concern, but being that he’s been playing in an advanced league at 17 and 18 years old, that’s somewhat expected.  During his debut season with Cienfuegos Moncada was teammates with MLB Rookie of the year Jose Abreu and Dodgers shortstop Erisbel Arruebarrena. Despite being among elite Cuban players and only 17, he held his own, batting .283 with a 414 on-base-percentage in 172 plate appearances. He also exhibited above average quickness, stealing 13 bases.  Add in a win against the aforementioned Castillo in two base-running competitions during the Serie Nacional All-Star festivities in Cuba and it’s clear that Moncada already has Major League ready speed.

This past season, in 195 plate appearances, his production dipped slightly to the tune of a .273 average with a .365 OBP. However, his slugging percentage did increase over 50 percentage points and his ISO (Isolated Power) increased over 80 points to .133.  With a 118 OPS+ (on-base-plus-slugging plus), Moncada not only proved he was an above average player in comparison with his senior colleagues, but also that he’s developing more strength as he grows older.

The question with Moncada is whether he’ll be able to sign within the next few months or some time during the 2015 regular season.   Because he is under 23 and has not played in a professional league for at least five seasons, Moncada will be subject to international restrictions. To sign him, a team would have to go over their allocated signing bonus pool level and be subject to penalties including a 100% tax on the overage. The teams capable of signing Moncada will pay close to attention to his timetable.  If he’s cleared during the current signing period, the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Angels would be at the top of the list of suitors.  Those teams are already subject to the maximum penalty as a result of going more than 15% of their pools, which consequently prohibits them from signing any pool-eligible player for more than $300,000 during the next two international signing periods.  Because his signing bonus will likely be in the $30-40 million range and teams can’t be penalized twice in the same signing period, those teams will only be able to afford him if he’s cleared before the current period ends on June 15th. Two other major-market clubs, the Cubs and Rangers, on the other hand, are hoping that Moncada is cleared after the 15th because they are facing their own restrictions for exceeding their bonus pools during previous years.

Moncada’s agent will likely play a large role in where he lands. Oddly, Moncada’s chosen a CPA from Florida as his representation rather than a traditional agent.  However, his agent has already shown capable of handling himself as he had two representatives of mega-agent Scott Boras removed from the premises at Moncada’s November 12th showcase.  Whether his agent’s inexperience catches up with Moncada remains to be seen, but it could play a role in the future.

More notably, Moncada’s clearance, whether in this period or next, could be the jumping off point for the creation of an international draft. All bonus taxes from international signings are placed in a fund to be used by the Commissioner to further the international development of baseball unless an international draft is implemented. With that fund likely to exceed $60 million after taxes from Moncada’s contract are collected, it’s likely that money will eventually be used to facilitate resources in other countries to begin a foundation for that draft.  In other words, no matter where Moncada lands his contract is likely going to have a major impact on recruiting in the international arena.