Coming up through the Texas Rangers system Justin Smoak looked like he was power hitter in the making. Kevin Goldstein, of Baseball Prospectus, ranked Smoak has a Five-Star (out of five) prospect, and projects him as a “third-slot hitter in the lineup of a championship-level team,”with at worst him being a fifth-place hitter (read the rest of the scouting report) .
Smoak possessed, maybe still does, the type of power that make scouts drool. Unfortunately for Justin, he was rushed to the majors due to Chris Davis‘ struggles in 2010. After 70 games with the Rangers, Justin was traded to the Seattle Mariners in the trade that sent Cliff Lee to the Rangers.
As a 23 year old with less than 3 years in the minor, Justin struggled adjust to what major league pitchers were throwing him and couldn’t make consistent contact. He would bat .209/.316/.353 with 8 home runs with the Rangers and saw a modest improvement of .239/.287/.407 with 5 home runs with the Mariners.
Smoak spent the next 3 years with the mariners and would hit 15,19,20 home runs, but never hit over .238. The ability is there, Smoak has the eye to draw a walk and he doesn’t strikeout as much as you might think. Smoak is a true fastball hitter and really struggles against breaking/offspeed pitches where he is likely to swing and miss between 31 and 42 percent of the time (BrooksBaseball).
| Year | Age | Tm | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 23 | TOT | 100 | 348 | 40 | 76 | 14 | 0 | 13 | 48 | 46 | 91 | .218 | .307 | .371 | .678 | 82 |
| 2010 | 23 | TEX | 70 | 235 | 29 | 49 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 38 | 57 | .209 | .316 | .353 | .670 | 77 |
| 2010 | 23 | SEA | 30 | 113 | 11 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 34 | .239 | .287 | .407 | .694 | 93 |
| 2011 | 24 | SEA | 123 | 427 | 38 | 100 | 24 | 0 | 15 | 55 | 55 | 105 | .234 | .323 | .396 | .719 | 106 |
| 2012 | 25 | SEA | 132 | 483 | 49 | 105 | 14 | 0 | 19 | 51 | 49 | 111 | .217 | .290 | .364 | .654 | 85 |
| 2013 | 26 | SEA | 131 | 454 | 53 | 108 | 19 | 0 | 20 | 50 | 64 | 119 | .238 | .334 | .412 | .746 | 113 |
| 2014 | 27 | SEA | 80 | 248 | 28 | 50 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 24 | 66 | .202 | .275 | .339 | .614 | 77 |
| 5 Yrs | 566 | 1960 | 208 | 439 | 84 | 0 | 74 | 234 | 238 | 492 | .224 | .309 | .380 | .689 | 94 | ||
| 162 Game Avg. | 162 | 561 | 60 | 126 | 24 | 0 | 21 | 67 | 68 | 141 | .224 | .309 | .380 | .689 | 94 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/4/2014.
So why would the Blue Jays want to take a chance on Smoak? The answer is simple is that the Blue Jays have zero depth minor league depth at first base.
With the Triple-A Buffalo Bison, Brett Wallace (Minor League FA) and Matt Hague split time between first and DH at the end of 2014 and neither appears ready excel in the Majors. Mike McDade was the starting first baseman for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats and unless he takes great strides to start 2015, he is unlikely to even see time with the Buffalo Bisons in 2015.
You have to dig deeper, you need to go all the way down to Low-A ball Lansing Lugnuts to see the Jays most promising first base prospects: Rowdy Tellez and Matt Dean.
Matt Dean (Matthew Dean) is the more advanced of the two after spending all of 2014 with the Lugnuts. He is expected to jump to High-A Ball Dunedin Blue Jays in 2015. Unfortunately, Matt has a propensity to strikeout too much and doesn’t walk enough. At 21 years old, Dean still has a lot of maturing to do, but a solid .147 ISO and .761 OPS is something to look forward to.
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/4/2014.
Rowdy Tellez is a 19 year old, 30th round selection, who has a projectable body. At 6’4” 220 lbs, Tellez could develop into a very potent power hitter in the future. In only 12 games at Low-A Ball, Rowdy walked 14.3% and struck out 20.4%…..too small of a sample size to make any assumptions. Tellez hasn’t produced ISO numbers below .131 over three levels since 2013.
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/4/2014.
Both Dean and Tellez have plus upside, but neither will be able to help Toronto until 2016 at the earliest. Until then Toronto Blue Jays deem Justin Smoak as a necessary evil and pay him $1 million on a one year deal, to prove that he can hit major league pitching. The LH switch hitter has a chance to flourish in the hitter friendly stadiums in the American League East after spending playing half his games at Safeco Field.
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