Is Clay Buchholz the ace-in-waiting for the Red Sox?
For the first time since 2010, the Boston Red Sox Opening Day starter will not be Jon Lester.
The longtime Boston southpaw recently signed a six-year deal with the Chicago Cubs, and the Boston brass reacted to the moves by acquiring three proven starting pitchers to fill a gaping hole in the rotation. On paper, the Red Sox have five starters, including two holdovers from 2014 – Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly – and a trio of new acquisitions in Rick Porcello, Wade Miley and Justin Masterson. Many argue that Boston is still lacking a top-of-the-rotation guy, but Red Sox GM Ben Cherington is adamant that his team can win with the five starters on the roster right now. He might be right.
Herein lies the saga of Clay Buchholz.
Seven years ago, on a brisk September night in only his second Major League start, 22-year-old Clay Buchholz no-hit the Baltimore Orioles. From that moment on, the bar was set mile-high for Buchholz, who was widely regarded as the Red Sox top prospect, if not the best prospect in all of baseball. Then came a disastrous 2008 campaign, followed up with an inconsistent 2009 season. Buchholz set a career-high in wins in 2010 with 17 wins combined with a solid 2.33 ERA. The injury bug swarmed the righty in 2011, limiting him to only 14 starts, but Buchholz rebounded in 2012, staying relatively healthy although having yet-another lackluster year.
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The right-hander exploded out of the gate in 2013, jumping out to a 9-0 mark before missing more than three months with an assortment of injuries, returning in September to finish the regular season with a 13-1 mark with a 1.74 ERA in only 108.1 innings. Prior to the injury, Buchholz was a frontrunner for the Cy Young Award but again faced the wrath of Red Sox Nation because of his inability to stay healthy. Buchholz continued the disappointing trend last season, taking the ball only 28 times, missing a month with a knee issue. He went under the knife in early December for a minor knee procedure and is expected to be fully healthy come Spring Training.
Throughout his career, the now 30-year-old Buchholz has flashed stretches of dominance, but has never been able to kick the injury prone label. When healthy, the stats back up the notion that Buchholz is without a doubt, a top-of-the-rotation starter. Out of the current five Boston starters, many would argue that Buchholz has the most raw talent. The success of the 2015 Red Sox team may revolve around the health of the two-time All Star, who finished sixth in the Cy Young voting four years ago. His repertoire features a mid-90s heater, a breaking ball that has evolved over time, a pitch that has been used with more regularity in the past few years, and a lights-out changeup that is widely regarded as his best pitch.
In recent years, Buchholz has moved away from the looping curveball and has morphed the pitch into more of a tight slider. The emergence of a cut fastball has allowed Buchholz to get contact earlier in counts, lowering his pitch count and keeping him in games longer. If Buchholz can return to his dominant form from early 2013, he has more than enough in the tank to be the Red Sox number one starter. If not, Boston could be in trouble, facing another injury riddled year from their potential front-end arm.
Ace pitchers do not grow on trees and are not easily acquired, which is evident from the going rate of such pitchers. Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro is seeking a king’s ransom of prospects for his prized Cole Hamels, while agent Scott Boras is looking for an eight-year pact worth over $200 million for Max Scherzer. The Red Sox may have an untapped gold mine in Buchholz, who will make $12 million in 2015, with team options for 2016 and 2017 worth $13 and $13.5 million respectively.
Seven years removed from a no-hitter, there is as much uncertainty surrounding Buchholz as there was heading into the 2008, but in order for the Red Sox to make a deep run in 2015, he must return to his 2010 and 2013 form and stay off of the trainer’s table.