Projecting Sean Doolittle’s closer trajectory
Sean Doolittle of the Oakland Athletics is unique in various regards. From his unkempt beard to his left-handedness as a closer, his former first base position to his interest in unicorn backpacks, Doolittle is unlike any player in the MLB.
For the first time in his career, he’ll be the regular closer when the season begins in 2015. He’s been a setup man and mid-season backup option, now he’s locked into a ninth inning nightmare slot. Here’s an examination of Doolittle’s rise and why the bearded 28-year-old still has room for development.
Most experts and fans associate Doolittle with his trademark rising fastball. FanGraphs technically defines him as a fastball, slider and changeup pitcher, but his slider is a major work in progress and sighting his changeup is sort of like finding Sasquatch. After watching him work in 2014, it’s clear that hitters don’t swing and miss at his slider’s bite, they simply whiff away because they assumed fastball. Doolittle featured his slider 11.3% of the time in 2014 and had an average velocity of 81.4 mph. With a fastball usually around 94 mph, his speed differential between them is admirable.
If his slider can bite sharper and cut harder though, we have an epic closer on our hands. Consider that many of Doolittle’s advanced metrics scream for better ERA and save numbers. In 2014, he threw 89 strikeouts against eight walks, showcased a 0.73 WHIP and only allowed oppositions to hit .169 against him. In his splits, we see that lefties never registered a walk or long fly against him in 2014. They had a slash line of .117/.118/.158 against Doolittle. That’s historically dominant. Righties had more success, but still only rocked a .234 on-base percentage and struck out 57 times in 39 2/3 innings.
Live Feed class=inline-text id=inline-text-4
White Cleat Beat
Point being, Doolittle’s advanced numbers don’t correlate with his 22 saves and 2.73 ERA. The limited save total is because he took over for Jim Johnson after the season began, plus he had a DL stint late in the year. The ERA venturing from shockingly effective territory is the result of Doolittle getting absolutely shelled whenever he gave it up. In Doolittle’s 62 innings pitched in 2014, he allowed 19 earned runs. 13 of these earned runs spanned across a dreadful three-game, 0 and 2/3 inning stretch. Three horrible performances inflated his overall ERA and distorted his near remarkable splits.
What we have here is a king by advanced metrics and a reliable late-inning weapon by standard statistics. If his slider develops into a confidence pitch that hitters miss because of its nastiness and not solely the result of its slowed speed, Doolittle’s standard stats will catch up to his advanced numbers. Two versatile pitches will also help prevent his occasional appearances of getting tattooed. Every reliever has forgettable performances, but Doolittle’s fastball predictability and non-high-90s velocity leaves less room for error. He already throws a first pitch strike 72% of the time, imagine how lethal he’ll be with an improved slider.
Wade Davis has three pitches. Greg Holland and Craig Kimbrel have the strongest fastball-slider combinations. Dellin Betances throws in the high-90s and has a breaking ball that quite truly looks illegal. Doolittle’s fastball can hang with what these fellow beasts offer, but his secondary stuff is more than a step behind. It’s astonishing that Doolittle’s been so successful largely relying on a 94 mph heater that’s normally straight. Deception, southpaw craftiness and unexpected late life are partial attributes of this success, but he has room to grow. He hasn’t been a professional pitcher that long and just started his closer career. He’s undeniably a reliever on the rise. A developed slider with a bigger break could push him to the top.