Did the Rays really upgrade with Asdrubal Cabrera?
The Tampa Bay Rays have reportedly added middle infielder Asdrubal Cabrera into the fold, signing the former Cleveland Indian and Washington National to a one-year deal for approximately $8 million. Though one can’t assert for certain how new manager Kevin Cash will implement Cabrera, it is relatively safe to assume that he will see a good deal of time playing second base in 2015.
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The 29-year-old amassed 6,303 1/3 innings of his 8,078 1/3 career innings (or 78%) in the field at the shortstop position, but with
Yunel Escobar— despite him producing the worst DRS (defensive runs saved) and UZR (ultimate zone rating) last year among qualified shortstops — projecting to be Tampa’s starting shortstop in ’15 it is unlikely Cabrera will see much time playing the position he has played for the majority of his career. Even so, it stands to reason that Cabrera is probably better suited playing second considering between 2013 and 2014 his UZR (-19.4) was the worst among 19 qualifying shortstops and his DRS (-23) was the second-worst only ahead of
Jed Lowrie,
whose poor defense at shortstop I detailed last week
.
To sum it up, due to some combination of the presence of Escobar and Asdrubal’s shady defensive track record at shortstop, it is highly probable that Cabrera will play second base for Tampa Bay. Roster Resources concurs with that statement, as they, too, see him playing second with one of the two teams located in the Sunshine State.
Anyway, defensive ability is likely not what implored Rays GM Matt Silverman to sign the switch-hitter, rather, his average to slightly below-average offensive production for a middle infielder and the depth that he adds. But while the Rays did evidently get deeper with the addition of Cabrera, I question whether they actually got better. Allow me to explain.
In the middle of last season, the Rays acquired 23-year-old second basemen Nick Franklin from the Seattle Mariners in a three-team trade that netted the Detroit Tigers a year and a half of David Price. Franklin, who was a top 100 prospect according to Baseball America for three years straight from 2010 to 2012, did not fare well in the 90 plate appearances he was granted in ’14 with the Rays and Mariners, as he totaled a very weak 34 wRC+.
Granted, that is a very minuscule sample size; so small, in fact, that one should not look at that numbers to extract any predictive power of Franklin’s future output. In his MLB career, however, he has accumulated 502 plate appearances, which serves as a slightly viable sample size for which one can judge. Here are his career stats as well as the MLB averages in 2014.
- Career stats: 9.6 BB%, 28.9 K%, .144 ISO, 82 wRC+, and 0.4 fWAR
- 2014 MLB Average: 7.6 BB%, 20.4 K%, .135 ISO, and 96 wRC+
Walk rates (120 PA), strikeout rates (60 PA), and isolated power (160 AB) tend to stabilize fairly quickly; meaning, it is not far-fetched to presume that Franklin will walk at an above-average rate, strikeout at an above-average rate and hit for more power than an average player going forward. Aside from the fact that he whiffs a ton, it is positive to see that so far in his young career he is able to draw a lot of walks and compile a good amount of extra base hits — things of which (walk rate and power) correlate in the aggregate.
*(Sample Size data is brought to you by Baseball Prospectus’ Russell Carleton and can be found here over at Fangraphs.)
Even though his ability to draw free passes and hit for power are commendable, his contact ability, or lack thereof, has impeded him from becoming a passable starting second basemen to this point. Despite batting average being an overused stat when measuring a player’s value, it still tells us something and it most certainly does in this instance. Throughout his young career, Franklin has managed to muster just a paltry .213 batting average, stifling him from being the successful .811 OPS hitter he was in the minor leagues. His pedestrian batting average in the bigs thus far can be partially attributed to the fact he has made contact with just 73.9% of the pitches he has seen when the MLB average is 79.4%.
Still, we are not dealing with a large sample size here. It should be equally telling to look at his minor-league numbers, where he has tallied close to 2,000 plate appearances, and see if Franklin is destined to be an occasional power guy with a mediocre contact rate. Unfortunately, to my knowledge there is no data available that shows a player’s contact rate in the minor leagues; therefore, glancing at his .284 minor-league batting average is the only thing we can really look at. Nevertheless, that number should provide one with a tad bit of optimism that he will not his south of .220 here on out. If he can become a better contact hitter, he has a chance to thrive in the majors from an offensive standpoint as long as he does not compromise other aspects of his game to do so, which is easier said than done.
Now from a defensive standpoint, it is difficult to tell how valuable Franklin will be considering advanced defensive metrics in such a small sample size are essentially meaningless. It is thereby important that we get a scout’s take on his defense. Here is a snippet from Kiley McDaniel on his piece featured on ESPN regarding Franklin’s defense.
“Franklin is smaller than I expected, a slim 6-1, 175 pounds, and while he’s played shortstop his whole life, he doesn’t have the tools to do it every day at the big league level. His arm is fringy-to-below average and while he’s a solid-average runner, his lateral quickness isn’t up to big league snuff either. Franklin could make up for this with outstanding hands and instincts, but both are just solid for shortstop. He can be an above-average defensive second baseman that fills in for shortstop in a pinch, but the bat and glove both profile best at the keystone, and since he’s almost big league ready, it’s time to make the move.”Live Feed class=inline-text id=inline-text-21
Rising Apple
McDaniel’s has an extremely keen eye at evaluating talent, but how well Franklin’s defensive skills actually translate in the long haul is a question only time can answer. With that said, I am confident that if the Rays decided to field Franklin as their everyday second basemen instead of Cabrera they would accrue more defensive value.
At this point it should become obvious that we are looking at an interesting player in Nick Franklin; a player who has the potential to be an above-average bat and glove. The emergence of Cabrera for the moment, however, hinders that potential from being fully realized (or not) next season. Thus, the question I posed in the beginning of the article stands: are the Rays better off with Cabrera considering Franklin’s value will likely be suppressed as a consequence?
There is no way to legitimately answer that inquiry, but one can try. Therefore, here is Steamer/600 projections for both Nick Franklin and Asdrubal Cabrera in 2015. Before I show them, keep in mind Steamer/600 is just what a player is expected to do if they are given 600 plate appearances.
- Cabrera: 100 wRC+ and 1.4 fWAR
- Franklin: 100 wRC+ and 2.0 fWAR
Franklin, per the projections, would provide Tampa Bay more value if he were to start. Obviously these projections are not the end all, be all, and all things considered Franklin is probably a bigger gamble of the two. Regardless, one has to wonder if the Rays actually improved with this signing.