When Jeff Luhnow took over the Astros in December of 2011, it was a radical change. He took the NBA rebuilding route fielding a barely competitive team to help the team’s position in the draft. For his efforts he’s had the opportunity to pick first in the past 3 drafts.
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Now the team has begun to improve, thanks in part to homegrown products like Jose Altuve, Jason Castro and George Springer. Thanks to their success Luhnow will have his lowest pick in the first round with the second overall pick. The Astros would have had their first selection in the fourth spot had they signed Brady Aiken last year though.
Even though they’ll be picking 3 spots later then their usually used to in ever other round, Luhnow has shown his acumen for drafting top level talent with the Cardinals and now in Houston. That talent Luhnow has found is now catching eyes as 6 of 11 MiLB.com’s Astros’ Organizational All Stars were acquired by Luhnow.
Of Luhnow’s three first overall picks Carlos Correa is the only one so far to really show promise. Mark Appel has struggled in the minors and Brady Aiken never signed. Thankfully for Luhnow, the promise Correa has shown has warranted his selection as the number one pick and some what makes up for the failures of the other two.
In parts of three seasons in the minors Correa has hit .308/.389/.465. That’s pretty close to the .314/.382/.454 Robinson Cano hit for the majors this season, and not far off his career line of .310/.358/.499. While minor league numbers don’t indicate future success it does show that wherever Correa has gone in the minor leagues he’s had Robinson Cano like success, which is pretty good for someone whose been about 3 years younger than the average age of the other players he’s faced.
2014 wasn’t the brightest year for Correa, but not because of his performance. His season ended after just 62 games due to a broken fibula. Despite not being able to finish out the year, his strong start was still enough to get his name on this list. In those 62 games he hit .325/.416/.510 with 20 stolen bases in 24 attempts.
His leadership was praised too. Scouting Director Kevin Goldstein had this to say about him.
"“It’s all legit,” Goldstein said about reports of Correa’s makeup. “Last year, at Quad Cities, when they won the title, that clubhouse belonged to Carlos Correa. It was pretty interesting to see an 18-year-old run a clubhouse. This year, at 19 … he flew in for the final game at Lancaster. He’s just a special kid. There’s no other way to describe it.”"
Correa seems like he has the whole package, but he just turned 20, hasn’t played above high-A and is coming off a very serious leg injury. The sky’s the limit right now, but there’s a long way for him to go.
Roberto Pena established himself as an elite defender behind the plate in 2014. He threw out 52 of 92 would be base-stealers last season giving him a caught stealing percentage of 56.5 percent. To put that in perspective Brian McCann led the majors last season with a caught stealing percentage of 37.2 and Roy Campanella is the all time leader at 57.4 percent. That was a huge part of what earned him the minor league Gold Glove for catcher. In other other words, Pena has one of the top arms in the minors right now, but that’ll have to be his ticket to the big leagues.
Pena’s offense lags far behind his defense and is likely the reason that in 5 seasons he hasn’t advanced above High-A. Last year he hit .249/.306/.414 in 93 games. They were all career highs for Pena, who hadn’t had an OBP above .300 or a slugging percentage over .400 in any of his first 4 seasons.
It’ll be interesting to see what Houston decides to with Pena. His bat doesn’t justify him progressing to AA, but his defense might be better than other catcher the Astros have in their system. Defense first catchers have been able to survive in the majors, as seen with Jose Molina, but his offense has to come a long way before he can be seriously considered as part of the Astros’ future.
Josh Hader was acquired from the Baltimore Orioles at the 2013 trade deadline for Bud Norris. Since coming over he’s done nothing but impress. He finished off 2013 strong, and built off it with an even stronger 2014. The lefty pitched in 22 games including 15 starts for High-A Lancaster and finished off the year making 5 appearances including 4 starts with AA Corpus Christi.
In Lancaster he posted an ERA of 2.70 over 103 1/3 innings with a strikeout rate of 9.75 putting him 4th and 17th respectively among California League pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched in those categories. It was impressive progress for the 20-year old who was drafted in the 19th round just 2 years prior.
Unfortunately AA wasn’t as kind to him. He gave up 14 runs in 20 innings while issuing 16 walks. The only positive from his brief time in AA was he terrific strikeout numbers. He struck out 24 batters leading to a strikeout rate of 10.8. If he can dial back on the walks which have been an issue at every level for Hader, he can become a truly dominant pitcher and progress through the final two levels of the minors fairly quickly.
Domingo Santana was acquired from the Phillies in 2011 in a deal for Hunter Pence. He’s been a quick riser through the Astors’ system and was the youngest qualfied hitter in the Pacific Coast League, 5.6 years younger than the average PCL hitter. He even got an opportunity to make his Major League debut at 21 years old this past July. Neither of his two short stints with the big league team were very successful, going 0 for 17 with 14 strikeouts and 1 walk, but big league experience is still important for a players growth regardless of struggles.
In the PCL it was whole different story for Santana. He hit .296/.384/.474 there, but strikeout problems still plagued him. He struck out 149 times, which was 29 percent of his plate appearances. In the majors a percentage that high would land him in the top 10 in strikeout percentage in any given year, so needless to say he needs to cut down on his strikeouts.
Aside from the strikeouts though, he shows signs of being a very productive hitter in the majors. He hits for average, walks at a good rate and hits for good power. He was mostly a doubles hitter last year notching 27 of them, good for 18th best in the PCL. He did hit his fair share of homers too with 16 of them which was 16th best in the PCL.
The outfield in Houston is pretty crowded at the moment, so Santana may have to wait awhile to get his chance to contribute everyday. It may be for the best though. He just turned 22 and will struggled mightily if he continues to strike out at the rate he does. Another full year in AAA could be what he needs to develop into a more complete hitter.
Tony Kemp was drafted in 2013, but he found a way to finish out his first full season in AA. He tore up high-A Lancaster hitting .336/.433/.468 with 28 stolen bases in 72 games. He then made his way to AA Corpus Christi where he continued to impress hitting .292/.381/.425 with 13 stolen bases in 59 games. For a first full season playing professional baseball, it’s hard to do much better than what Kemp did.
It wasn’t just his bat that was noteworthy, his glove was just as advanced as his hitting. He earned a minor league Gold Glove at second base this past year. Right now it looks like Kemp has the full package. He’s a great hitter with great speed and a great glove. It’s exactly what you want from your second baseman.
The only issue for Kemp is he’s blocked from reaching the majors. He’s progressed probably quicker than the Astros anticipated and is close to being ready to play at AAA, but if he continues his success there where will he go next? The Astros best player is their second baseman, Jose Altuve, whose only a year older than Kemp. It wouldn’t make sense for the Astros to move a known commodity for an unproven prospect, so that means if Kemp has to move. Whether that means position or team remains to be seen.
The Red Sox were faced with a similar situation with Mookie Betts and Dustin Pedroia. The Sox ended up moving Betts to the outfield to get him to the big league team. Kemp, with his speed, could be a successful outfielder, but a lot of his value is on the defensive side. Taking Kemp away from second base makes him less valuable, but if his bat progresses far enough where the Astros feel both he and Altuve in lineup is best for the team, they’ll find a way to accommodate both.