Luis Severino’s rise to prominence has happened quickly and largely went unnoticed until late in the 2014 season. If he can continue to impress in spring training, he could challenge for a roster spot in the instance that a starter gets injured or fails to deliver quality starts at any time throughout the season.
Severino’s strikeout rate in Double-A was impressive, as he averaged 10.44 strikeouts per 9 innings in six starts. He pitched 113.1 innings in his season split between Single-A and Double-A. The most important characteristic for Severino’s progress is that he doesn’t allow many home runs. With only 0.36 home runs per 9 innings yielded over 25 innings in Double-A, it’s extremely encouraging considering the dimensions of Yankee Stadium that he’s eventually going to have to face. Additionally, despite giving up a .297 batting average on balls in play, 73.2 percent of runners were left on base showing that he doesn’t get rattled with men on base.
Severino’s fastball will be key in his advancement in Triple-A and the Majors. It explodes from his hand and could reach as high as 97 miles-per-hour. Perhaps most impressive is that Severino’s able to keep control and paint both sides of the plate.
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The concern for Severino is that he fails to incorporate his lower half when delivering a pitch. He generates most of his velocity from his arm movement and that can cause stress on his arm. His slider also needs to improve as his delivery to the plate isn’t repetitive each time and he tends to overthrow it. Yet the slider and his change-up could eventually become plus pitches if he learns how to control it.
Whether or not he’s able to master his change-up, he could immediately be an effective option out of the bullpen. The stress on his arm would also be less likely of causing damage, as he’d be pitching less innings. The Yankees, however, will likely start him at Double-A before quickly promoting him to Triple-A after a few starts. If he succeeds in the preseason, however, they may have to reconsider.
With C.C. Sabathia starting only 8 games last season, sporting a 4.78 ERA in 2013, and a long career including 200 innings for seven straight years, he could he could be facing a steep decline in production and various injuries that will keep him out of the rotation.
Tanaka, like Sabathia, has injury concerns especially when, after a partial tear in his UCL in right elbow, he chose to decline surgery. That decision could come back to haunt him and he could end up on the disabled list if his recovery doesn’t go as planned, opening a spot in the rotation for Severino.
The Yankees injury issues continue with Michael Pineda. The young right-hander has never reached 175 innings and has a history of elbow and back injuries, which is troublesome for any pitcher, especially a power pitcher. Severino would likely get the opportunity to replace the Yankees number 3 starter and could run away with the opening.
As of now, new acquisition Nathan Eovaldi is the fourth starter for New York, but the .282 average he gave up in 2014 to opposing hitters is disconcerting. The 14 home runs he yielded, in 33 starts, are even more alarming, considering the move to a hitter’s park. Because of his potential to give up the long-ball, the Yankees may be quick to pull Eovaldi after multiple bad starts and take a chance that Severino could do better.
With Ivan Nova coming off of Tommy John surgery, Chris Capuano is the fifth starter in the rotation. Now 36 going on 37 with a career ERA over 4.00, his spot will be tenuous and the hook could be quick if the Yankees believe that his 85 mile-per-hour fastball is ineffective. With Adam Warren better suited for the bullpen after posting a career 1.31 major league WHIP, Severino would likely be the first call-up to replace the veteran.
The best news for Severino’s chance at an immediate impact is the fact that the Yankees traded away quality replacement starters David Phelps and Shane Greene, leaving them with starting options that had ERAs above 5.00 in games started last season. Although they could hope that one of those starters turns it around, the odds are they’ll either look to the trade market or bring up their best talent.
With 3 of their 5 starters potentially maintaining an ERA above 4.00, the Yankees could decide to make a change, with the mindset that Severino, at worst, could offer an inconsistent, yet high reward option. Although there may be times where he has trouble with control or going deep into games, there also could be games where he posts a 7 inning, 1 run, and 3 hit stat line.
If he can’t make the rotation, there could be an opportunity for success in the bullpen. Behind Dellin Betances, David Carpenter, and Andrew Miller, there is nothing set in stone. Even new reliever Justin Wilson may not be in the same role all year if he doesn’t improve from his 4.20 ERA last season. An injury to Carpenter would immediately create a major hole in the bullpen as the first right-hander out of the bullpen setting up Betances.
If by mid-season, Severino shows the ability to handle the pressure of Triple-A and keeps his strikeouts-per-9 innings at a high rate, he could easily get a shot at keeping a spot in the pen. He could even have a role in the bullpen similar to former Yankee Phil Hughes down the stretch until the Yankees believe he is ready to be a full-time starter. They may, however, see that he’s ready sooner rather than later.