Chris Martin is better than you think
This did not generate headlines, but the New York Yankees added an underrated depth piece to their bullpen by way of Chris Martin on Tuesday. In exchange for cash considerations, the Bronx Bombers were able to pry the recently designated 28-year-old reliever from the Colorado Rockies.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
On the surface, Martin does not look like much of anything. His career 6.89 ERA, accumulated in just 15 2/3 innings of work, is enough to scare off numerous teams. The right-handed pitcher’s 4.39 ERA in Triple-A last season does not help his cause, either. Add those poor run prevention totals to the fact that he did not make his MLB debut until the age of 27, and it is not hard to see why Colorado designated him for assignment earlier this month.
The latter of these is a legitimate concern that I will be unable to allay, but the other issues, specifically the high ERAs, are somethings of which I believe are the byproduct of random variation within a small sample size opposed to an indicator of things to come. Allow me to explain.
To accompany the pedestrian 4.39 ERA Martin posted in Colorado Springs, he struck out an astonishing 12.15 batters per nine innings through 26 2/3 innings. Putting that number into perspective, if he were to have compiled it in the majors — that is, if he did so in ample innings — instead of Triple-A he would have placed 13th among qualified relievers last year. This isn’t to say Martin will ever attain that on the big stage because looking at his track record he probably won’t, but it does exemplify the potential the 2005 21st round draft pick has.
Now, I know some of you may be thinking that his Triple-A K/9 total is essentially negligible due to the fact it was configured in such a small sample size. To this hypothetical I would counter that strikeout rates tend to stabilize very quickly, and according to Baseball Prospectus’ Russell Carleton it only takes 70 batters faced. Martin eclipsed that threshold last season in Triple-A; however, I believe the stabilization data Carleton collected is only applicable to MLB seasons. With that said, I cannot imagine the strikeout rate stabilization is that different in the highest level of the minor leagues, if there is one at all, which there likely is.
Regardless, that impressive 12.15 K/9 propelled the rookie to produce a laudable 3.21 FIP in Colorado Springs — that, and his commendable 0.68 HR/9. This is important because FIP is a better indicator of true talent and future performance, as it strips away batted ball “luck” from the equation. For someone like Martin who tallied a .431 BABIP at the Triple-A level with Colorado Springs, when the MLB average in ’14 was .295, FIP tells us a lot about the talent he really has.
Live Feed
BoSox Injection
The BABIP Gods were not kind to Martin in the big leagues either. He registered a .408 batting average on balls in play while inducing a 60.8% ground ball rate in the aforementioned 15 2/3 innings. While one might prematurely peg him a high-BABIP guy, I would not trust that assertion — at least to the .400+ degree — because of the fact he does yield a lot of ground balls and because it takes 2,000 balls in play for BABIP to stabilize according to the same research.
As much of an excuse as this may sound, Martin was unlucky throughout 2014. BABIP played a huge role in why his ERA was as deplorable as it was with the Rockies. The 3.77 FIP and 2.90 xFIP he totaled should not completely negate the 6.89 ERA he put up, but it should give one optimism to anticipate the Yankees may have gotten themselves one heck of a steal.
Per Pitch f/x, Martin has a heater that touches 95, a sinker, cutter, and a curveball that held hitters to a 36 wRC+ last season. He is really tall at 6’8, 215 pounds and by season’s end, that frame could turn out to be one of the best moves of the offseason.