Can Yunel Escobar find consistency with the Oakland Athletics?
By Tyler Birss
Yunel Escobar should be the everyday shortstop for the Oakland Athletics when the upcoming 2015 season begins. He’ll be replacing Jed Lowrie, last year’s shortstop occupant who darted to the Houston Astros in free agency earlier this winter.
Escobar could split time with utility man Marcus Semien, but the everyday role will almost surely belong to him. Can Escobar finally maintain consistency and production after three straight down seasons? This question will be a determining factor in how the A’s perform in 2015.
The 32-year-old started his career in promising fashion. In a 94-game sample size in 2007, he batted .326 and hit 25 doubles in 319 at-bats for the Atlanta Braves. In a larger game sample in 2008, Escobar backed his rookie campaign up with a .288 batting average, a .366 on-base percentage and 60 RBI. His rise only continued in 2009 with the following slash line: .299/ .377/ .436.
He was below-average for the first time in 2010, which was split between Atlanta and the Toronto Blue Jays, as he hit just four home runs and drove in 35 runs in 135 combined games. This seemed to indicate a dip in ability, but Escobar responded in 2011 with a .290/ .369/ .413 slash line. Aside from 2010’s “off” showing, Escobar was essentially a reliable, professional hitter for four or five years.
From 2012 to 2014, Escobar has slipped into mediocrity by never batting higher than .258 and slugging .366 or below each season. He’s never been a power hitter or an RBI machine, but these offensive holes were only acceptable when he regularly drove singles or doubles and reached base. Now that he’s basically a .250 hitter with no power and an average at-best walk rate, what can Escobar offer?
He’s never struck out more than 73 times in a season. That’s a piece of value in an age of historically prevalent strikeouts. Also, his .253 batting average in 2012 was part of one of his worst offensive performances, but that would put him in the middle of the pack, or maybe even on a relatively higher end, in Oakland. They didn’t have any .300 hitters last season out of its everyday players. Even Josh Donaldson, the team’s best player in 2014, only hit .255.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
Defensively, Escobar should have value, but he took a colossal, maybe even an unfathomable, step back in 2014. FanGraphs rated his Fielding Runs Above Average number at -17.0 last year. It was 10.7 in 2013 and 4.6 in 2012. The measure had never been negative aside from a -1.1 score in 2007. -17.0, though? That’s an alarming dip. His DRS number in 2014, which stands for Defensive Runs Saved, was -24.0. From 2008 to 2013, it ranged from 4.0 to 14.0. How does he then arrive at -24.0?
The overall sample size is difficult to assess for a 2015 projection. Escobar’s career .276 average and .347 on-base percentage would both do next year, but these numbers are inflated by his promising MLB start. They don’t reflect the last three seasons. According to FanGraphs’ Steamer, which can be accessed in the link provided above, Escobar is projected to bat .258, reach base at a .324 clip and belt seven home runs to go with 45 RBI.
If sensible trends and FanGraphs are used as indicators, Escobar’s peak years are behind him and his overall value is limited. That said, he’s fairly durable and affordable. He’ll only make $5 million next year. That figure will jump to $7 million in 2016 and Oakland will have a $7 million team option for 2017. For an extremely regular contact hitter who’s never had a poor batting average and has been quality fielder aside from his anomalous 2014, those prices are fair.
Oakland hasn’t found a great player who immediately saves the franchise. But can he be an upgrade over Lowrie? Possibly. Can he hold the ranks until prized prospect Franklin Barreto or 24-year-old Semien are ready to nail down the position? Definitely.
Escobar is serviceable. He’s more than acceptable for a seventh hitter in the lineup. Lowrie wasn’t strong with the glove, so Escobar rediscovering even moderate value will be an upgrade. Plus, he’s not even the main part of the deal that landed him in Oakland–that’s Ben Zobrist. Don’t expect big things from Escobar in 2015, but do expect contributions.