World Series or bust for Max Scherzer, Nationals
Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Throughout the course of Winter Meetings, it was widely reported by MLB insiders that free agent pitcher Max Scherzer and his representation, Scott Boras, were seeking a multi-year deal north of $200 million. During a time when oil is valued at well under $50 per barrel and much of North America’s economy is vulnerable, it’s safe to say Scherzer is a winner–at least fiscally–while the jury will be out on the Washington Nationals until roughly mid-September.
The deal is for a reported seven years and $210 million, making it the second richest deal for a pitcher behind the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw.
There are some challenges that now present Scherzer and the Washington Nationals moving forward. For starters, Scherzer will be 31 before the end of the 2015 season. He won his first Cy Young in 2013, but before that compiled a career ERA of 3.88 and a combined winning percentage of only .553 for the Arizona Diamondbacks and Detroit Tigers across 4 1/2 seasons and 133 starts.
Kershaw, meanwhile, is only 26 and has won three NL Cy Young awards, has a career ERA of 2.48 and a WPCT of .667. Though the money is similar, the results and age are of stark contrast. Kershaw is more youthful and accomplished already than is Scherzer.
Max Scherzer is guaranteed a lot of currency on behalf of the Nats, but it’s a bizarrely structured contract, as Jeff Passan outlines. He will not be paid as much as players like Kershaw, Felix Hernandez or Cliff Lee will per annum.
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Additionally, no team in the National League will now be under the microscope more to win ball games than the Nats will be in 2015. Coming off an NL best 96 wins and a division title, manager Matt Williams is to the jockey as the Nationals are to California Chrome, with the team itself being viewed in the same light the horse was heading into the 2014 Belmont Stakes. Much like a Triple Crown win, anything short of a World Series appearance will play out as an utter disappointment in the nations capital.
On paper, former first overall pick and pitching phenom Stephen Strasburg now becomes the No. 2 starter in the rotation. Not bad at all, when one considers he led the NL in strikeouts and tied for first in games started with 34 in 2014, all while securing a tidy FIP of 2.94 to go along with 14 wins. The 26-year old is set to make $7.4 million in 2015 salary.
To round things out rotation-wise, Jordan Zimmerman (14-5, 2.66 in ’14) will make $16.5 M in ’15, Gio Gonzalez (10-10, 3.57) $11 M and presumably as the fifth starter, Doug Fister (16-6, 2.41) will command $11.4 M in ’15 earnings. All of this could change with a trade, of course. But if things stand pat, that will be over $61 M tied up in the starting rotation.
Putting that number in perspective, ranked based on where each team finished record-wise in the division last season, the combined approximate salaries of the four other NL East’s projected Opening Day starting rotations looks like this:
- Atlanta Braves (79-83) – $9.1 M (M. Minor $5.1, J. Teheran $1 M, S. Miller, A. Wood and D. Hale all less than $1 M)
- New York Mets (79-83) – $21 M (B. Colon $11 M, J. Nise $7 M, M. Harvey, J. deGrom and Z. Wheeler all less than $1 M)
- Miami Marlins (77-85) – $21.9 M (D. Haren $10 M, M. Latos $8.4 M, H. Alvarez $4.5 M, J. Fernandez and J. Cosart both less than $1M)
- Philadelphia Phillies (73-89) – $57 M (C. Lee $25 M, C. Hamels $23.5 M, A. Harang $5 M, J. Williams $2.5 M and D. Buchanan less than $1 M)
Judging by the above numbers, it’s safe to say the club and Williams’ role will fall under quantifiable scrutiny if the Nats are not at least in the hunt for a playoff berth come the month of September. Washington also has a very formidable lineup to complement their pitching staff with, whereas it would be a minor miracle if the Phillies can assemble a postseason caliber offense this year to go with the hefty payroll owed to starting pitchers.
Scherzer has never pitched before in Washington’s Nationals Park. However, his career split for Interleague play as a Tiger when he faced NL competition has him sitting at 8-5 with a 3.14 ERA and a very distinguished K/9 of 12.6. A move to the NL will probably help his overall numbers. However, due to the talent levels he will juxtaposed alongside in the Nats’ rotation, his productivity may appear less stellar than it did pitching in the AL Central with the Tigers.
Whatever the physical cost the Nats will go through in 2015 after inking Max Scherzer, one can bet the emotional toll will weigh twice as heavy on the club if results fall shy of expectations.