2017 will be the year that sabermetricians are either vindicated or proven wrong.
Sports Illustrated predicted the Houston Astros would beat the Chicago Cubs in the 2017 World Series. Those two teams have been anointed as future royalty by seemingly every baseball media outlet because of their legions of young talent that are waiting to pay their dues so they can breathe life in woebegone franchises. Most Chicago fans have never seen their team win a World Series and the Astros have experienced 92, 111, 107, and 106-loss seasons since their last playoff appearance in 2005.
If you are a fan of either of these teams and you believe your future is bright, then you’ve been deceived, because both are putting their salvation in the notion that all outs are created equal.
The Cubs and the Astros struck out more than any other team in 2014. The Cubs suffered from giving too many at bats to guys like Junior Lake and Mike Olt. Javier Baez, who has drawn comparisons to Gary Sheffield for his incredible bat speed, struck out in over 40 percent of his plate appearances. The real Sheffield never struck out in even 20 percent of his plate appearances during a season. It was so awful that the Cubs said this week that Baez would have to earn his playing time in 2015 even with the massive amounts of hype surrounding his prodigious power. Translation: cut down on the Ks.
The Astros weren’t any better. Of the 263 players in 2014 with at least 300 plate appearances, the Astros had four of the top 20 hitters in strike out rate; Jon Singleton (1st), George Springer (7th), Chris Carter (14th) and Jason Castro (19th). It’s difficult to win when four hitters who get a lot of chances to produce runs struggle to put the ball in play. That doesn’t include outfielder Robbie Grossman and third baseman Matt Dominguez, who each struck out in more than 20 percent of their plate appearances.
These teams struck out so much that they finished last in their divisions even though they hit the fourth (Astros) and fifth (Cubs) most home runs in all of baseball.
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Such is the Catch-22 when you buy into the notion that a strikeout is equal to a popup or a ground ball to second base. They’re both outs, so what’s the difference, right? The prevailing wisdom in baseball is that slugging your way to runs is more productive than manufacturing them through fundamental hitting and laying down sac bunts.
If that were true, then these teams shouldn’t have finished 21st (Astros) and 26th (Cubs) in runs scored.
It should be noted that the rise of the K isn’t entirely the fault of hitters. Strikeouts are up across baseball for myriad reasons. Flame-throwing relief pitchers regularly march out of bullpens—there were 57 pitchers who averaged 95+ mph fastballs in 2014; there were only 41 in 2007. The prevalence of defensive shifts, which are also products of the deviation from fundamental hitting, suck even more offense from the game.
None of those reasons should lead teams to be tolerant of their players striking out at record paces. Tolerance of strikeouts is simply not a reliable ingredient in a winning formula. Consider the following:
- Of the 118 teams to make the playoffs since 2001, only 25 have been among the top 10 teams in strikeouts.
- The average finish in team strikeouts of playoff participants during that span is 17th.
- The average finish of World Series participants is 19th. For World Series champions, it’s 19.7.
- Only two teams have won a World Series during that span that finished in the top 10 in strikeouts: the 2004 and 2013 Red Sox (third and eighth, respectively).
What we see is that teams can make the playoffs with a lot of strikeouts, but rarely do they contend for rings.
That doesn’t bode well for the Cubs or Astros.
The Cubs prospects have a lot of potential, but that potential comes with red flags. They strike out in bunches. Third baseman Kris Bryant, Baez, outfielder/second baseman Arismendy Alcantara, catcher Kyle Schwarber, shortstop Addison Russell and outfielder Jorge Soler all struck out in more than 15 percent of their plate appearances in 2014, and most of them were around or above 20 percent.
The Cubs do have a promising pitching situation, however. The signings of Jon Lester and Jason Hammel add merit that the Cubs will compete sooner rather than later. Now they hope the hitters catch up.
The Astros’ outlook is bleak right now, but there are some promising prospects coming up the pipeline. Shortstop Carlos Correa, who was blistering the minors to the tune of a .320 AVG /.405 OBP /.467 SLG line in 2013 and .325/.416/.510 in 2014 before breaking his leg, puts the ball in play consistently and shouldn’t be in the minors much longer. Third baseman Colin Moran, who hit .296/.344/.397 in 2014 between High-A and Double-A, is also rarely a strikeout victim.
The pitching corps in Houston isn’t as far along as their counterparts in Chicago. Mark Appel is closest. He overcame a rough 2014 and appears to be ready to make the jump to the majors after dominating the Arizona Fall League, going 1-0 with a 2.61 ERA and .84 WHIP in 31 innings. Josh Hader is also showing promise, going 9-2/2.70 ERA/1.10 WHIP and holding opposing hitters to a .204 average at High-A.
The pitching staff can’t rest on these two alone, and the inability to sign 2014 First Round pick Brady Aiken doesn’t help the cause, either. Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh are already in the majors and ready to compete, but a complete pitching staff is still two years away at least.
In three years, these two teams are supposed to be the class of Major League Baseball. But it’s more likely those years will be three strikes.
And then they’ll be out.