Small market teams are often criticized for letting finances get in the way of their success. But after examining the track record of past free agent signings, it becomes clear that the open market is absolutely the worst way to build a team.
Baseball has changed. This isn’t the 1990s anymore. The “Big Money Free Agent” is actually hurting teams more than helping in this modern age.
Two teams in big-time cities, the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets, have taken note of the plethora of fruitless free agent acquisitions and have chosen to emphasize player development and young talent over the players at the end of their primes.
Will this new approach pay dividends in 2015? Let’s take a look at recent free agent signings, each systems prospects and development strategies to find out.
Remember the battle of Michael Bourn between the Mets and Indians back in the 2013 offseason? Mets fans pined for the Front Office to bring in what they considered to be the perfect leadoff hitter. When the Cleveland Indians signed the outfielder for $48 million right before Spring Training, Sandy Alderson and the Wilsons were hit with intense criticism for allowing their financial situation to negatively impact the major league team.
So far, avoiding Bourn that looks to be the right decision. In his first two seasons with Cleveland, Bourn has averaged a lackluster .315 on base percentage and 16.5 steals, well short of the .348 OBP and the 42 bags he swept in the 2013 season.
Did anyone think Albert Pujols could challenge Barry Bonds for baseball’s home run title? With 189 million dollars left on his contract, the former MVP is just an average first baseman at this point. He’s posted a .727 and .790 OPS in the first two seasons of his deal.
Ubaldo Jimenez, signed to a 50-million dollar deal late in the ’14 offseason, posted a 4.81 ERA in 25 starts with Baltimore and may not even earn a rotation spot in 2015.
These players are not exceptions to the rule. Alex Rodriguez, Jason Bay, Barry Zito, and dozens of other free agents have flopped for their new teams during the past decade.
There is one simple message organizations can take from this; teams can no longer rely on the open market to provide value to the big league team. Free agency is valuable for targeting bargain-basement signings or bringing in the final piece to a contending team. However, signing big-name players at the end of their prime handicaps teams long term.
Sadly for the major league baseball, those are the only players that reach the market. Even the small market Marlins kept superstar Giancarlo Stanton by paying him a king’s ransom.
Look at the Mets. They have been widely criticized for avoiding free agents and rebuilding for the past half decade. But after a bevy of good trades and quality draft picks, they are now are rich in young major league talent with big time help coming from the upper levels of the farm.
Noah Syndergaard could be the next Mets ace to call Queens his home. Kevin Plawecki has a great chance to become the rare catcher who could contribute with the bat, provide a steady hand behind the plate, and become a leader in the clubhouse. Dilson Herrera has excited bat speed and looks like a potential All-Star. Steven Matz has been compared to Clayton Kershaw and was ranked as the Mets top prospect by Triple-A manager Wally Backman. Amed Rosario is being heralded as the shortstop of the future. That’s not to mention at least a dozen other players who could be big league starters in the future.
The Cubs are another excellent example of an organization that has adapted to the new market. While their rotation is far from stellar, no other club can match their wealth of hard-hitting positional prospects.
Arismendy Alcantara struggled with the Cub in 2014, but he should rebound next season and develop into a legitimate top-of-the-order threat. Jorge Soler made good on his potential with a 145 OPS+ in his brief major league stint late last season, and he’s on the books at just over $3M per season for the next seven years. Chicago also has a glut of shortstops with at least five years of team control and the budding ace Chase Edwards balancing out the group. A group this loaded with talent makes it easy to see the fruits of their rebuild.
There are no quick fixes in baseball these days. Teams are overly cautious about ‘losing’ trades and organizations are overvaluing their own prospects. There is only one way to build a team: from the ground up.
The Cubs and Mets have been absent from October for much of the recent past. It’s easy to blame a lack of spending for the dearth of playoff appearnces. But with rosters full of quality young talent, both teams should make a run at a Wild Card in 2015 and enjoy sustained success for at least the next five years.
Chicago’s playoff chances were bolstered by the addition of the Jon Lester, but don’t let that one big splash fool you into thinking the team’s inevitable turnaround is due to their new signee. Certainly, Lester will be an important part of the picture, but a great foundation, built by the great Theo Epstein, is what has made the future (and present) blindingly bright at Wrigley
The Mets only big offseason signing was Michael Cuddyer, but their farm system has produced capable starters at each position on the diamond. Critics have pointed to shortstop as the team’s achilles heel, but I am excited to see what former top prospect Wilmer Flores brings to the table in his first chance at a starting role.
Give credit to these two big-market franchises, neither caved to the pressure of binging on a player that would hinder their future when their team not ready.
They didn’t try to quickly fix their team with free agent dollars, but consistently made sound baseball decisions that put their teams in positions to have long-term success.
With the new season soon approaching, the Cubs and Mets are both in prime position to make serious noise this summer. When they do, other ball clubs will take notice and adapt to this innovative, youthful, and prospect-centered approach.