Part V: MLB Prospects: 41-50
Oct. 14, 2014; Mesa, AZ, USA; Toronto Blue Jays outfielder
Dalton Pompeyplays for the Mesa Solar Sox during an Arizona Fall League game against the Scottsdale Scorpions at Salt River Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Taking a look at the final ten prospects in Keith Law’s top 50 prospects, there are definitely some intriguing names to look at. Part I contained mostly infielders, while Part II and Part III consisted of mostly young pitchers. Outfielders took the spotlight in Part IV-a and Part IV-b, many of which appearing on a top 50 list for the first time.
Part V consists of a mix of toolsy outfielders, potential front line starting pitchers, and a couple of catchers. A few of the following players made it onto this list after a breakout 2014, but most players have been on the radar for a few years now.
A few players from this group should play in the big leagues in 2015, with at least one battling for a starting spot come Spring Training. Others are a few years away and may end up ranking higher on future top prospect lists.
June 9, 2013; Corvallis, OR, USA; Oregon State Beavers player
Michael Conforto(8) rounds the bases after hitting a home-run against the Kansas State Wildcats in the first inning of the Corvallis Super Regional at Goss Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports
41. Michael Conforto, OF, Mets
Seen as the best college hitter in last years draft, Conforto tore it up in his first pro season, cementing his status as a top prospect. The Mets had taken a high school player in the first round for the last three years, but decided to buck that trend to take the former Oregon State outfielder 10th overall.
Drafted for his bat, the 6 foot 1, 211 pounder is known for his contact tool and mastery of the strike zone. This dates back to his college days, leading Division 1 in OBP and walks in 2013. In 42 games in Short-A ball this past season, Conforto hit .331/.403/.448 with 3 homers. The batting average would have led the league if he had enough at bats. He is expected to become a 20-homer a year type of guy eventually, as he already has a bit of an upper cut in his swing.
One of the negatives of his game was his poor defense in the outfield. He was seen to be limited to left field, which may have played a part in him dropping to the 10th pick in the draft. He has improved significantly in his routes to balls as well as his throwing accuracy, and now projects as an average outfielder. The 21-year old has decent speed, but it doesn’t much translate to stolen bases, although he is a smart base runner.
The lefthanded hitting outfielder shouldn’t need a ton of Minor League tuning before he is ready for the big leagues. He will likely spend the bulk of 2015 in Double-A, and may even make it up to Triple-A. 2016 should be the first year that we see him in New York.
Sep 28, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays center fielder Dalton Pompey (45) reacts to hitting a ball during the second inning in a game against the Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre. The Baltimore Orioles won 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
42. Dalton Pompey, OF, Blue Jays
Pompey is coming off an outstanding 2014 that saw him rise from Advanced-A all the way to the Majors. The Canadian outfielder wasn’t really on top prospect radars at this time last year, but he has earned his spot on this years list.
He has the makings of a future leadoff hitter, with a great eye at the plate combined with blazing speed. Through the three minor league levels in 2014, he hit .317/.392/.469, with 9 homers and 43 steals. He didn’t have an outstanding debut in Toronto, but he did show some flashes. If he can continue to hit for a high average while being patient, his speed will really play well. Not known for his power, the switch-hitter is still capable of double-digit homers, and will be helped by playing at the Rogers Centre in Toronto.
Pompey displays much better contact from the left side, where his swing is short and compact. He is capable of more power from the right side, but will swing and miss more often due to his swing becoming longer. His speed not only leads to high stolen base numbers but allows him to be a plus defender in center field. It will be interesting to see how durable the 22-year old can be, as the AstroTurf in Toronto is known to be tough on bodies.
Pompey should have the edge for the center field job for the Jays out of spring training, and the sky’s the limit for what he can accomplish in 2015. This could be a budding star, and should be a popular Rookie of the Year candidate. If he can hit well enough to hit in the leadoff or 2-hole, he should put up some solid numbers in front of the likes of Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson. He is also sure to be a fan favourite, as he grew up in the Toronto area.
43. Nick Gordon, SS, Twins
The son of former reliever Tom, and brother of Dee, Nick has the potential to be the best player from the Gordon family. Drafted 5th overall by the Twins in last years draft, Gordon had a solid pro debut and should continue to develop in 2015. Although similar in stature to his brother at this point, Nick projects to be a completely different player.
Unlike his brother, Nick has a cannon for an arm, which leaves little doubt that he will be be to stay at short. As a former pitcher that threw in the low 90s in high school, his arm should be a real asset. The 19-year old should develop into a player who can hit for a high average, with occasional pop. In 57 games of Rookie-Ball last season, he hit .294/.333/.366, with 1 homerun. As of right now, he’s more of a gap hitter, but the home runs should come as he matures.
At 6 feet and 160 pounds, it’s probably feasible to believe that Gordon will add another 20 pounds by the time he is Major League-ready. He doesn’t have the raw speed that his brother does, so he can afford to add the weight without it affecting his game too much. He stole 11 bags in 2014, but was caught 7 times as well. He obviously has some speed or he wouldn’t be playing shortstop, but he probably won’t be a guy who steals a ton of bags. Improving his base running ability would help him maximize his speed on the base paths.
The lefthanded hitter is still several years away, but few doubt that he’ll be able to follow in the footsteps of his father and brother. The potential is that he can a better hitter and fielder than Dee, with less speed. If he can learn a little more plate discipline, he should profile as a leadoff hitter in the future.
Oct. 14, 2014; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Houston Astros pitcher
Mark Appelplays for the Salt River Rafters during an Arizona Fall League game against the Surprise Saguaros at Salt River Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
44. Mark Appel, RHP, Astros
As the top pick in the 2013 draft out of Stanford, Appel has had a lot of hype over the last couple seasons. He wasn’t able to pitch all of 2014 after recovering from an appendectomy in January. We originally thought Appel would have been Major League ready last season, but the injury pushed back his progress.
The power righthander started slowly when he finally got on the mound in April. He got hit pretty hard with Advanced-A Lancaster, but his strikeout rate was still solid. As he regained his form and was promoted to Double-A Corpus Christi, he showed promise in his six starts. One of those starts was a masterful 8 inning, 10 strikeout performance, only allowing two hits and one walk.
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The end of the 2014 regular season helped the Stanford-product create momentum towards the Arizona Fall League, where he had seven strong starts, leading the league in Whip (0.84), and finishing second in strikeouts (24). By the end of October, he looked like a pitcher that was ready for the Majors.
The 6 foot 5 225 pounder’s fastball sits in the mid-90s, without a ton of movement, but he commands it well. His best offspeed pitch is his slider, which he throws in all counts in the high 80s. His changeup is his third offering and it varies in consistency from start to start, but can ultimately end up being an above average pitch for him.
After a strong finish to his 2014 season, and the trade of Mike Foltynewicz, Appel should be the front runner for the Astros’ 5th rotation spot. Some believe he can be an ace, while some believe he will be a decent pitcher but not fantastic. It will be interesting to see what kind of impact he has on a potentially contending Astros team in 2015.
45. Kevin Plawecki, C, Mets
A 2nd-round pick by the Mets in 2012, Plawecki has quietly put up solid numbers ever since being drafted. His hitting ability and defense should make him a solid starting catcher with the chance to be an All-Star in the future.
The backstop is known for his short, compact swing that produces high batting averages wherever he’s played. Last year between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .309/.365/.460, with 11 home runs. He definitely focuses more on making hard contact than knocking the ball out of the park, so his home run total is something we should expect to see in the big leagues. He only struck out in 12.8% of his at bats last season, another testament to his advanced hitting tool.
To go along with his quality hitting ability, the 23-year old is a very good receiving catcher behind the plate, showing the ability to block balls well and call a good game. The one weakness to his defensive game is that his arm is average at best, and probably won’t be able to throw out more than 30 percent of basestealers a season.
The righthanded hitter is pretty much Major League ready, and should be able to help the Mets in 2015. Whether that is straight from Opening Day or at some point mid-season is yet to be determined. Plawecki’s high contact approach and solid receivability behind the plate should make him a quality starting catcher for years to come.
Oct 12, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; San Francisco Giants pinch hitter
Andrew Susachits a single against the St. Louis Cardinals during the 9th inning in game two of the 2014 NLCS playoff baseball game at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
46. Andrew Susac, C, Giants
Drafted in the second round in 2011, Susac has emerged as a top prospect due to his power and plate discipline. Although appearing one spot lower in the rankings to Plawecki, the Giants backstop profiles as a completely different player, offensively and defensively.
The 24-year old has great power at the plate, hitting 13 homers last year between Triple-A and the Majors, through 98 games. He has the makings of a guy who can hit 20 homers consistently in the big leagues. His batting average has never been spectacular, but has oddly increased as he’s advanced in the system. His .273 mark in San Francisco was the highest he had posted at any spot in his career. He offsets his subpar contact numbers with great discipline at the plate, posting over .100 more OBP points than batting average over his Minor League career.
Behind the plate, the 6 foot 1, 215 pounder displays good athleticism to block balls, but is an average receiver overall. However, he has a plus arm, and should be able to consistently throw out a third of basestealers in the big leagues.
As of right now, Susac is blocked by Buster Posey. The Giants may elect to start Susac behind the plate and move Posey to first base, which could prolong his career. Of course, whenever a top prospect is blocked, he could end up becoming trade bait. It will be interesting to see what the Giants do with their catching ‘problem’ in 2015.
Aug 24, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Houston Astros relief pitcher Mike Foltynewicz (48) pitches during the seventh inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
47. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Braves
Traded to the Braves in the Evan Gattis trade last month, Foltynewicz has the potential to be a frontline starter. He was expected to battle with Mark Appel for the last rotation spot in Houston, but now appears like the front runner for the last spot with the Braves.
The 23-year old has a true 80-grade fastball, touching triple digits regularly while consistently hitting the upper 90s. His best secondary pitch is his curveball, which also grades out very well. He uses these two pitches to generate a lot of swing and misses, and has rarely had to rely on much else in the Minor Leagues. Sometimes he brings his arm down for his fastball and up for his curveball, which leads to him tipping off his pitch. If he does this in the Majors, batters will pick up on it very fast. He dropped his slider at the beginning of 2014, focusing more on his changeup as his third offering. This pitch will be key for him developing into a quality starting pitcher. If the changeup never develops into an average offering, he may have to settle into the bullpen instead of the rotation.
Problems with his command and lack of a quality third pitch led to some disappointing numbers in 2014 through Triple-A and the Majors. His ERA was over 5.00 in both stops, with a WHIP around 1.50 as well. He did strike out a batter an inning, but it came at a price of high walk totals. As one can expect with pitchers throwing in the upper 90’s, command will always be important for Foltynewicz. Luckily he now has one of the better pitching coaches in the game in Roger McDowell, which should help his progress.
Since the Braves are clearly rebuilding, 2015 would be a good year to get their newly acquired power righthander comfortable in the big leagues. The best thing for him might be to drop a few MPH on his fastball in favor of more control. I see him becoming a pitcher similar to Garrett Richards; one that can anchor a rotation with overpowering stuff. However, improving his changeup and overall command will be needed before we can confidently call him a starting pitcher.
Jul 18, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels 2014 first round draft pick
Sean Newcombattends the game against the Seattle Mariners at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
48. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Angels
The Angels were happy to draft Newcomb with the 15th pick in last years draft, after most believed he would be a top-10 pick. Coming from the University of Hartford, scouts may have been skeptical of him pitching at a small school. However, his size and pitching arsenal should help him develop into a front-line starter,
The 6 foot 5 240 pounder is a power lefthander, throwing his fastballs in the mid-to-upper 90’s with solid control. His two best off-speed pitches, his changeup and curveball, profile as plus pitches as well. The curveball sits in the upper 70’s and has good break, while the changeup sits in the mid-80’s with late tail. He also threw a slider, but it is clearly his 4th best offering and probably won’t rely on it too much moving forward.
It is rare for a lefthander to throw in the upper 90’s, so there is obviously a lot of buzz surrounding Newcomb. Combined with the fact that he has a couple solid off-speed offerings, and scouts believe he can be a No. 1 or No. 2 starter. He was a little overwhelming in his pro debut in 2014, having an opponents batting average of .286 through Full-A ball and the Arizona Fall League. He did display his swing-and-miss capabilities, striking out 18 through 14 innings.
Newcomb is still a few years away, since coming from a small school with lesser competition. We should see him pitch in Double-A in 2015, and depending on how he does, may be ready to contribute at some point in 2016. At the very least, 2017 should be the first full year where we should see the burly lefthander in Anaheim.
Jul 13, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; USA pitcher
Robert Stephensonthrows a pitch in the 8th inning during the All Star Futures Game at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
49. Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds
Drafted 27th in 2011, the Reds found a potential future ace with Stephenson. He was kind of hit and miss in 2014, after dominating in 2012 and 2013. He was and always will be a guy who strikes out a lot of batters per nine innings, but his control and moving parts in his delivery are cause for concern.
His fastball sits in the mid-to-upper 90s, and generates a ton of swing and misses. He pairs his fastball with a solid curveball which has a lot off power and depth to it. These two pitches alone could make him an All-Star closer, but the ceiling is much higher for the 21-year old. His third pitch, his changeup, isn’t quite an average pitch and he tends to try to blow it by batters when he’s in trouble. Developing this pitch will be vital to his improvement as a starting pitcher.
Stephenson spent the entire 2014 season in Double-A, where he had some mixed results. He did strike out over a batter per inning, like he has been doing since being drafted. However, walks became a huge issue for him, with 74 in 136 innings. In 2013, he had just 35 total walks in 114 innings. The encouraging sign is that batters still had trouble making solid contact with him, hitting a combined .221 off the right hander.
One of Stephenson’s main problems is his inconsistency in his delivery. He has some violent head movement and a finish to his delivery that led to some command issues in 2014. The 6’3″ 195 pounder has to learn to use all of his pitches, and not just focus on blowing his fastball by batters if he wants to be succcessful as a starting pitcher. The main thing for him is to obviously cut down on the walks, which should lead to him getting back on track and profiling as a top of the rotation starter.
50. Ryan McMahon, 3B, Rockies
Drafted in the second round by the Rockies in 2013, McMahon has really emerged as a top prospect in 2014. Mostly unranked on prospect lists, he is starting to get the recognition he deserves. Playing quarterback in high school, he didn’t have as much baseball experience as his peers, but has since impressed in pro ball.
The 20-year old had an outstanding 59 game debut in Rookie-Ball in 2013, hitting .321/.402/.583, with 11 long balls. Showing that he was much better than his competition, the Rockies started him off in Full-A ball in 2014, and he didn’t disappoint. He projects as a 30-homer a season hitter, displaying tremendous pop, albeit in the lower Minors. He hit 18 homers last season, with a whopping 46 doubles in 126 games. His power numbers are aided by his discipline at the plate, walking 54 times last season. The walk numbers are going to need to be high because he strikes out a lot, whiffing 143 times last season. This is obviously a cause for concern but it is not all that uncommon for lefthanded power hitters.
Defensively, the 6 foot 2, 185 pounder displays fantastic range, and definitely has a future at the hot corner. As a former quarterback, he has a very strong arm that plays well at third base. What he needs to work on is his footwork on the routine plays, putting him in position to catch and throw. Speed is not much a part of his game, stealing a handful of bases in 2013 and 2014 while being caught as many times.
McMahon is an under-the-radar prospect at this point who has a very bright future ahead of him. As of now, he is blocked by 2014 breakout third basemen Nolan Arenado, but he is still a couple of years away from the big leagues anyways. I see McMahon as a future All-Star, who’s numbers should get a boost playing in Colorado. Cutting down on the strikeouts and improving his footwork defensively should make him into a complete player. I fully expect him to rank higher on this list going into next season.
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