The Pros and Cons of Investing in Yoan Moncada

With the signing of James Shields, just one high-profile free agent remains—Yoan Moncada. The 19-year-old infielder from Cuba has garnered much interest since becoming a free agent. Typical big spenders like the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers are in on the race for his services, as are this offseason’s winners, the San Diego Padres.

For one of those teams, it is the hope that they ink the young superstar and that he might quickly emerge as the talented player many project him to be. But like with all ball players, especially those of international descent, the burden of risk can stave off the intrigue of many for fear of failure.

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Moncada certainly appears to be one of the most highly touted international prospect in recent history, alongside fellow Cubans Yoenis Cespedes and Yasiel Puig. Early reports indicated he could go for over $80 million to the winning team. Is he worth the cost of investment?

Pros
Unlike his predecessors, Moncada has the potential to make his Major League debut before he’s even legal to drink. Though the likelihood of him seeing the big leagues this year appears slim, Moncada should be Major League ready by next spring.

Though he is not a big-time power hitter like Cespedes, Puig or former teammate and 2014 AL Rookie of the Year Jose Abreu, Moncada is still potent at the plate. He made his mark as a 17-year-old rookie with Cienfuegos in Serie Nacional, hitting .283/.414/.348 in 172 plate appearances. His numbers dipped slightly during the 2013-14 season but were still impressive, batting .273/.365/.406 in 195 plate appearances.

His speed is his greatest offensive weapon and gives him his best edge, but he’s a well-rounded athlete who poses a threat the minute he steps into the batter’s box.

MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo spoke to various sources following Moncada’s showcase in Guatemala in November. Many spoke well of the young prospect.

Different sources had Moncada timed differently in the 60-yard dash, though he ran somewhere in the 6.56- to 6.6-second range. That gives him a 70 for his speed on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, or close to the top of the scale. He reportedly looked better at third and second than he did at shortstop, with enough arm from any infield position. Moncada swung the bat well from both sides of the plate, showing plus raw power both ways. The only negative was that he didn’t face live pitching, hitting only off of a BP pitcher. When asked to grade out Moncada’s tools based on this workout, in combination with previous reports, one scout gave the following grades:Hit – 60Power – 60Speed – 70Arm – 60Field – 50

While there may not be film to view of Moncada, it’s clear from most accounts the international product is worthy of all the commotion. His skill set shows the potential for him to be an overnight sensation in Major League Baseball and he could be the nucleus for a perennial contender for many years to come.

Cons
That lack of evidence is at least a little concerning, however. There are plenty of international players who didn’t pan out. Not everyone turns out to be a Cespedes or Puig.

Moncada did not face live pitching during his Guatemalan showcase, which gives reason to be skeptical of his abilities at the plate. Obviously, batting practice pitching and in-game pitching can produce completely different results. Teams will have to rely on what they saw and hope he won’t get embarrassed by Major League pitching.

His age could be a negative as well. Success at such a young age can sometimes breed arrogance or even complacency. Look at some of what the Dodgers have had to deal with regarding Puig as an example. Talent and production will always outweigh all other factors at the end of the day, but you don’t want a headcase in the clubhouse.

At such a lofty price tag, he’s an asset many teams are unable to or unwilling to afford. The $30 million signing bonus to ink him is one thing, but, as Yahoo’s Jeff Passan noted back in November, the cost to sign Moncada would actually be much higher because of the 100 percent tax increase a team will incur for going 15 percent over its international bonus pool. Any team that does sign him could potentially put themselves out of play to bid for any new international players over $300,000 for the next two seasons, so they must be sure Moncada is worth the effort.

Prediction
The sky is the limit for Moncada, assuming the scouting reports and hype are valid. At 19 years old, whatever team signs him should benefit from a long-term relationship with a player who will make an instant impact on the baseball diamond.

The Yankees might seem like the most plausible fit—they could certainly use his star power—but the Padres have proven they are looking to make every splash they possibly can this offseason. And you should never count out the Red Sox.

It’s hard to tell if Moncada will produce like Cespedes, Puig and Abreu have, but he should be something close. He’ll push .300 with close to 20 homers and 20 stolen bases a year. His glove work no matter where he plays in the infield will be a welcome addition for whomever signs him, and should provide him with staying power in the bigs even if he doesn’t translate as a great hitter.