Sep 30, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) hits a walk-off single against the Oakland Athletics during the twelfth inning of the 2014 American League Wild Card playoff baseball game at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 9-8.Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
The phrase “a walk is as good as a hit” is a common one in baseball. It’s popular with people like Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane, who follows his “Moneyball” logic. The 2014 MLB season begs to differ.
It makes sense in theory, though. If you hit a single up the middle you get to first base. If you draw four balls you get to first base. The result is the same with the only exception being how it affects any runners on base at the given time of either event.
From the most basic standpoint— like describing baseball to an alien species—a walk is as good as a hit and there’s no arguing. Results for the teams with the most walks, however, say otherwise.
Taking a look at the 2014 season team statistics, it’s no surprise to see Beane’s Athletics at the top of the list with 586 team walks. This was 42 more than the second place team, the Minnesota Twins.
At the low end of the totem pole is where the surprise comes in. The team that drew the fewest walks in 2014 was the American League champion Kansas City Royals. They only had 380 walks. In spite of this lack of patience waiting for pitchers to throw around them, the Royals still got to the World Series and came pretty close to winning.
As we know, the Athletics and Royals faced each other in the American League Wild Card Game with the result showing us that a Salvador Perez home run is a lot better than a Salvador Perez walk.
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Other than the Athletics, the only other team in the top-five at drawing walks in 2014 that made the playoffs was the Pittsburgh Pirates. They had the fifth most walks in 2014. The Pirates also lost in the Wild Card Game to the eventual World Series champion San Francisco Giants. As for the Giants, they ranked 21st in baseball at drawing walks. Perhaps the Athletics and Pirates were just a little too willing to take pitches instead of taking the bat off their shoulder.
The bottom five teams in total walks also included only two playoff teams. Along with the Royals in the bottom five were the ALCS losing Baltimore Orioles. Also in the bottom five were the Seattle Mariners. They were second to last in walks and only missed the postseason by one game. The other two teams in the bottom five, the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks, were two of baseball’s worst teams. Based on that, there doesn’t seem to be any direct correlation between a team’s success and the number of walks their offense has. A walk may be as good as a hit for the Athletics, but for the Royals it wasn’t something they particularly needed.
As an aside, there are a few other things to question about the “Moneyball” strategy. Its theory isn’t too keen on stealing bases or laying down sacrifice bunts. The Royals had a league leading 153 stolen bases in 2014 while the Athletics were ranked 21st. The World Series winning Giants were second to last in stolen bases.
The Giants were also last among National League teams in sacrifice bunts while Oakland was tied for last place overall with the Chicago White Sox. Again, because of no distinct pattern, it’s looking more like there’s no real guideline to follow in terms of what makes a championship team.
Agree or disagree with the value of a walk compared to a hit, the 2014 season says a base on balls is not quite as good.