The National League Central and Fastballs: Part Two
Oct 15, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Shelby Miller (40) pitches during the first inning against the San Francisco Giants in game four of the 2014 NLCS playoff baseball game at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
A few weeks back I wrote about the National League Central and its infatuation with the fastball. To summarize for those who have not (or do not want) to read what I wrote on January 24th, the five teams in the N.L. Central — the Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs — threw and saw (something which is almost certainly correlated) a helluva lot fastballs compared to other divisions in 2014. Today I have taken it upon myself to do a follow-up post where I will be examining which pitchers within the division contributed the most to this statistical oddity.
First of all, let me tell you what, exactly, a fastball is in this study. A fastball can be either combination of the following more specific pitches: two-seam fastball, four-seam fastball, cutter, sinker and split-finger fastball. The stat fastball percentage, which is the one that I have somewhat arbitrarily decided to use, is courtesy of Fangraphs’ Pitch Type.
When I began this article I did not know how I would format it, but now that I am here I think a slideshow would be fitting, so that is what you are about to see. Remember that the top four biggest contributors in terms of percentage are those who qualified as a starting pitcher by pitching an inning for every game their team played; in other words, over the course of a typical season a starter would have to attain 162 innings to qualify.
Oct 12, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Lance Lynn throws a pitch against the San Francisco Giants in the first inning during game two of the 2014 NLCS playoff baseball game at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Roberson/Pool Photo via USA TODAY Sports
1.) Lance Lynn (St. Louis Cardinals):
Rank among qualified starters- 2
Percentage of fastballs thrown in 2014- 79.0%
Average fastball velocity in 2014- 92.4 mph
Lance Lynn is known for having an elite fastball and therefore it should not surprise anyone who follows him relatively closely that he threw fastballs a lot last year. Bartolo Colon (82.6%) was the only starting pitcher in baseball who threw a higher percentage of fastballs than the Cardinals’ right-hander.
According to Brooks Baseball’s Pitch F/X data, the three pitches he relied on most frequently in 2014 were the four-seam fastball (53.23%), sinker (25.44%) and cutter (10.16%) — all of which fall under the umbrella of a fastball. Fangraphs’ Pitch Values, which uses linear weights to try to determine the effectiveness of a certain pitch, scores Lynn’s fastball at 10.4, ranking his fastball with the 20th-best run value among starter’s fastballs.
Oct 7, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Shelby Miller throws a pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the first inning during game four of the 2014 NLDS baseball playoff game at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
2.) Shelby Miller (Atlanta Braves):
Rank among qualified starters- 3
Percentage of fastballs thrown in 2014- 72.3%
Average fastball velocity in 2014- 93.5 mph
If you have been paying attention to the Major League Baseball offseason, you might have noticed that Shelby Miller, who had spent his entire career in St. Louis, will no longer be sporting a Cardinals uniform. Instead, he will be looking to prove that the Atlanta Braves were justified dealing one year of Jayson Heyward for the right-hander and, of course, pitching prospect Tyrell Jenkins.
Though Miller will not be contributing to the N.L. Central’s fastball fetish in ’15, he did so in a big way in ’14. His 13.3 run value on his fastball last year actually ranked higher than Lynn, placing him 13th among starting pitcher’s fastballs. Unlike his former teammate, Miller really only relied on one fastball type, his four-seam fastball (67.82%), to accumulate that spectacular score. His main secondary pitch was the curveball, mixing in a sinker and cutter ever so often.
Sep 20, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Matt Garza (22) delivers a pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
3.) Matt Garza (Milwaukee Brewers)
Rank among qualified starters- 7
Percentage of fastballs thrown in 2014- 67.6%
Average fastball velocity in 2014- 92.5 mph
Matt Garza‘s extreme fastball usage last year was not unheard of from the 31-year-old, as there was a time when he was a youngster and pitched for the Tampa Bay Rays where he would chuck north of 70% fastballs. In fact, from the three-year period from 2008-2010 Garza pitched fastballs more than 70% of the time in each season.
But, alas, once he started pitching for the Chicago Cubs that fastball love dissipated and he did not throw 65% plus fastballs from 2011 to 2013. Then he became a Brewer and the high fastball throwing Matt Garza we knew and loved returned. Brooks Baseball’s Pitch f/x data shows he threw his four-seam fastball (49.88%) more frequently than in any year prior. He also used the sinker, another classified fastball, a good deal, throwing it 17.51% of the time.
Sep 16, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Wily Peralta (38) throws to a St. Louis Cardinals batter during the fifth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
4.) Wily Peralta (Milwaukee Brewers):
Rank among qualified starters- 12
Percentage of fastballs thrown in 2014- 65.7.%
Average fastball velocity in 2014- 95.8 mph
Not only did Wily Peralta throw his fastball a lot last year but he did so hard. Next to Yordano Ventura and Garrett Richards, he averaged the third-highest fastball velocity in the Majors in ’14 between starting pitchers who qualified. Roughly 2/3 of his pitches last year were either the four-seam fastball (34.05%) or sinker (31.59%). Unfortunately, the two pitches, together, were not that impressive, as Fangraphs gave the 25-year-old’s fastball a paltry 0.9 run value.
May 11, 2014; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; A major league baseball has pink stitching in honor of Mother
Notes of subjective interest:
* None of the four pitchers were southpaws.
* The Brewers’ Brandon Kintzler, who ranked eighth among qualified relievers, was the top fastball thrower in 2014 last year as a reliever in the National League Central.
* I plan on doing one of these articles with hitters later on in the week, so look out for that if this interests you!