Here at Grading on the Curve, we have covered every minor league deal reported this offseason. More often than not, these deals involve young players itching to get a shot or a seasoned veteran hoping to revive his career. David Aardsma falls in the latter category, as he tweeted on Sunday that he is joining the defending National League West Champions in the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Aardsma, formerly the closer of the Mariners, racked up 69 saves in a two year stretch between the 2009 and 2010 seasons. Last year in the Cardinals minor league system, he pitched to a 1.46 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 37.0 innings.
More from MLB Prospects
- Is Arizona Diamondbacks prospect Ivan Melendez the next Pete Alonso?
- Los Angeles Dodgers prospect talk: Catching up with Hunter Feduccia
- MLBPA secures major victory for Minor League Baseball players
- Phillies: Breaking down the prospects fighting for an Opening Day spot
- What the XFL can learn from minor league baseball
The newly-signed Dodger has been working hard to refine his mechanics this offseason and increase his arm strength. Recently, he has harvested the fruits his efforts; his fastball reached 92 mph in his final bullpen session in front of 18 scouts.
Throughout his major league career, the Colorado-native has always had issues with control: he’s walked 5.0 batter per nine in 298 MLB appearances. Those issues were not relieved during the 2014 season with Triple-A Memphis, as he gave out 18 free passes in his 37 innings with the team.
It’s safe to say that Aardsma does not throw any elite offerings. In his last big league action, his fastball only missed bats on 7.14 percent pitches and his slider was only decent deceiving 20 percent of swings.
Therefore, in order for the former closer to get a legitimate shot in LA, he needs to continue to improve his pitching motion, focusing on commanding his pitches with absolute perfection. Otherwise, he will not earn a major league roster spot in April or during the rest of the year.
Like most minor league signings, the Aardsma deal is a good low-risk, high-reward pact. If he stays healthy and improves his control, he could could provide a fresh arm and eat up innings for the big club. However, expectations have to be tempered for 2003 first round pick. He sports just a 4.74 ERA in 306 big league innings.
The Dodgers projected bullpen competition is not an incredible field. Established arms Kenley Jansen, J.P. Howell, Brandon League and Joel Peralta look like locks for a roster spot. Aside from the vets, though, there remains two or three open spots for which the young hurlers and minor league free agents will fight. Paco Rodriguez, Carlos Frias, Pedro Baez, and Juan Nicasio make up the unproven group. Aardsma could beat out Baez and Nicasio for the coveted final spot, as both struggled in 2014. With Jansen’s injury, it certainly opens up the opportunity for a veteran presence.
My prediction: Aardsma loses the bullpen battle and is sent to Triple-A following camp. Still, he should net at least 20 innings for the Dodgers over the course of the season. We’ll see how it plays out in 2015.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals