Exploring the Non-existent Dioner Navarro Trade Market

Catcher Dioner Navarro‘s trade market never really developed this offseason. He turned out to be a steal for the Toronto Blue Jays when they signed him as a free agent following the 2013 season. He was a heck of a bargain for a $3 million salary in 2014, contributing a WAR of 2.3, equalling the fifth best in Toronto’s lineup. Navarro has recently been vocal about wanting to be dealt to a team where he can be an everyday player.

Per Navarro to MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm on February 23rd in reference to the Blue Jays’ signing of Russell Martin:

"“I asked for a trade right away, and up to today that’s still my goal. I would like to go a place where I can play everyday. I signed a two-year deal here to catch every day, and unfortunately they felt like they needed to make a move. I was kind of frustrated throughout the whole offseason, a little disappointed that nothing has happened yet.”"

The Martin signing did a lot to sway both Navarro’s necessity and desire to be a Blue Jay in 2015. But the Blue Jays got most of their significant transactions well out of the way before Winter Meetings began and were relatively quiet during and afterwards. A market for Navarro did not develop, despite the Jays and GM Alex Anthopoulos talking about making the bullpen better, though ultimately not acting on anything.

From a value perspective, the Jays paid Navarro $1.3 million per his extra 2.3 wins in 2014. They paid Jose Reyes $5.2 million per WAR in 2014, Jose Bautista $2.3 million per his extra six wins, Melky Cabrera $2.5 million and Edwin Encarnacion $1.6 per WAR. Navarro’s salary increases to a reasonable $5 million in 2015, so it would make sense for a catcher starved club out there to want to take advantage of his value.

Consider the following:

[table id=2 /]

A number of things can be deduced from this table.

Five clubs for 2015 are represented by two players on this list. Carlos Santana (1B/DH), Joe Mauer (1B/DH) and Evan Gattis (OF/DH) will mainly not play catcher for the upcoming season. The Cubs and Jays are the odd ones out.
Only 10 eligible catchers (on nine teams) were a better value to their club than Navarro over the last two seasons.
A.J. Pierzynski‘s 2013 and 2014 salaries were ridiculous. The Braves signing him for $2 million is smart money, but trading a reliever or two and their attached salaries for Navarro probably would have been smarter.
Brian McCann is terribly overpaid and epitomizes foolish spending by the New York Yankees. The Yankees do not care about money and will be stubborn enough to insist it’s not another Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira or Chase Headley-type contract.
The Cubs pursued Russell Martin steadfastly in free agency, but the Jays offered him more money and landed him.
From that money, the Jays will get similar if not better oWAR out of Martin in ’15 from they did Navarro in ’14, but a much better dWAR and thus overall WAR by comparison for only $2 million more in salary.
If the Cubs had one of the best values at catcher in Welington Castillo, why did they trade pitching for Miguel Montero instead of trading pitching (which the Jays need) for Navarro at less than half the 2015 salary but a higher $/WAR value over the last two seasons? This makes more sense from a payroll perspective if they want to push Castillo with some competition.
The Cubs are attempting to replace the 9th ranked (Castillo) catcher in WAR on the list with the 23rd ranked (Montero) who will cost them $9.9 million more in salary.
The Cubs play in the National League and cannot use a designated hitter except during inter-league play.
Hence, Montero is brutally overvalued.
Based on this work at FanGraphs, the Indians, Reds, Padres, Brewers, Royals, Astros, Blue Jays, Giants, Tigers, Dodgers, Angels and Phillies — barring huge setbacks — should all receive above average value from their first string catcher in 2015.
Based on the same work, the Cardinals, Marlins and Twins should get average production values from their first string catcher in 2015.
Again, from the same reference point, the Yankees, Braves and Cubs should all get below average value from their first string catcher in 2015.
Therefore, all teams from points 12 and 13 should have been at least attempted to trade relief pitching for Navarro’s depth. Pitching is of great value, but nearly every team has a surplus of relievers in their system.
Baseball has a zillion other factors to consider, so most analysis on the sport is an frustratingly imperfect science.

As the season gets nearer, it’s more and more likely that if Navarro is to be dealt, it will be at or near the trade deadline to a contender that needs catching depth or to offset an injury.

Why interest for his services did not develop in the offseason is a wonder? Especially on American League squads that could sneak him into their lineup to service as a DH.

The Angels specifically come to mind here. The comparisons between Chris Iannetta and Navarro show the Angels’ catcher was paid $13,324 per at-bat to Navarro’s $5,769, $64,545 compared to $22,727 per hit and a whopping $710,000 to $250,000 per home run, respectively. Iannetta will make 553K more in 2015 salary than Navarro will. Matt Joyce is currently penciled in as the DH, but he could slide into left field now that Josh Hamilton is injured. That would make C.J. Cron the DH presumably. He and Joyce had a combined oWAR of 1.3 in 2014. Navarro’s was 2.1.

It’s also not ridiculous to suggest the Yankees could use Navarro at DH more than they need Garrett Jones or A-Rod in that slot. And according to dWAR over the last two seasons, he’s still a better option behind the plate than McCann is. But the Yankees have spent money notoriously bad in recent years, so Navarro’s fiscally conservative production does not suit the Evil Empire’s style.

Even packaging Navarro with Brett Lawrie and the prospects the Athletics received for Josh Donaldson would have made some sense if it was their intention to trade away Derek Norris and John Jaso anyways. The A’s could have thrown in a few decent relievers as compensation. Instead, they acquired Josh Phegley as depth behind Stephen Vogt in the Jeff Samardzija trade. Navarro is a better player than both of the A’s current catchers. He might even provide better value at DH than Billy Butler‘s $10 million salary will, considering he had a lower AVG, OPS and hit three fewer HRs than Navarro in 2014.

More from Call to the Pen

Beyond all of this analysis, Josh Thole is a third catcher the Jays must carry on their active 25-man roster because he is the ying to R.A. Dickey‘s yang. Toronto does have a number of position players with a history of being injured on their squad. Perhaps Anthopoulos values depth more than relief pitching for that reason at this juncture in time.

Look for Dioner Navarro to be a continual story line this season for the Jays — and if you are a fan — hope that his temperament does not become cancerous in the clubhouse. Anthopoulos will definitely rue his decision making skills if those events do transpire.

Next: Padres Miss Out on Yoan Moncada Sweepstakes

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