Ranking the Top 6 Cuban Defectors for 2015 MLB Season
Ranking the Top 6 Cuban Defectors for 2015 MLB Season
Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
With all the buzz surrounding Yoan Moncada and commotion these days over studly, high-priced Cuban players who have defected recently to play MLB in America, I thought I’d put together a slideshow for the most probable outcomes pertaining to the 2015 season.
Perhaps use it as a guide for determining which ones are most worthy of keeper status in your fantasy baseball league, or don’t. But you’d be foolish not to covet at least one of them on your roster these days.
In recognition of No. 66 pictured above, this list will include six players instead of the standard five. And because there are just too many talented defectors these days.
Viva Cubano!
6. SP Jose Fernandez – Miami Marlins
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True, he likely will not make his return to the rotation until sometime in June, but Jose Fernandez is still bound to have a profound impact. Only 22, his body should be more than up to the task of over-coming Tommy John surgery that he had in May of last year.
Over the last two seasons with a minimum 220 IP, only Clayton Kershaw has a lower ERA than Fernandez, while only Yu Darvish has a higher K/9. That is some elite company.
Factoring in his recovery time and expected debut date, Fernandez’s Steamer projections still have him making 20 starts in 2015. Kershaw made only 27 in 2014, yet walked away with his third Cy Young award and an NL MVP. Fernandez’s projected WAR for 2015 is 2.9.
It’s doubtful the Marlins will rush Fernandez back. His arm and long-term outlook are too promising to risk tainting. If the club is struggling mightily well before June, however, there’s still an outside possibility that happens. Until then, newcomers Mat Latos and Dan Haren, along with Henderson Alvarez, will look to hold down the fort at Marlins Park.
5. OF Jorge Soler – Chicago Cubs
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The sample size on Jorge Soler is quite small. He has less than 100 big league at-bats, but did perform with above average production during that time. Celebrating his 23rd birthday only yesterday, Soler slashed .292/.330/.573 in 2014 with five home runs and 20 RBI.
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Over a full season of projections, it’s estimated he will hit .262, swat 24 home runs and drive in 78. Those would be nice numbers for a rookie season, assuming Soler meets the necessary 130 ABs to qualify as one. Poor play, an extended stint in Triple-A or an injury are the only justifiable things that would stand in his way.
Soler is a career .300 in the minors. Scattered over three seasons, he averaged a home run in every 25 plate appearances. At a solid 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, Soler is a big body that does not have exceedingly quick strides. If you’re looking to draft a three category stud as a rookie, his home runs, runs batted in and runs score should suit your fantasy team well. Your only setbacks will be in the average and stolen base departments. Soler’s projected WAR for 2015 in what should be a very young and talented Cubs lineup is 2.2.
4. OF Rusney Castillo – Boston Red Sox
Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Rusney Castillo — what’s not to like about him? His home ballpark loves right handed hitters. The Red Sox’s projected Opening Day lineup is not much short of resembling an All-Star team with its veterans (21 total ASG’s amongst starters), and the prospects are pretty highly touted.
Castillo is one of them. He may have also been a huge bargaining chip in bidding for Moncada’s services, as the fellow countryman could help greatly with getting the youngster accustomed to life in America.
Castillo’s sample size is far more limited than is Soler’s. At 27, he has not logged any innings or at-bats in the minors and only appeared in 10 games for the BoSox in 2014. He did hit very well though, going 12-for-36 with two home runs and three stolen bases.
Castillo’s biggest challenge is not falling victim to a platoon in the outfield. The Red Sox had a lot of depth there, with Hanley Ramirez, Shane Victorino, Allen Craig, Mookie Betts, Brock Holt, Daniel Nava and Jackie Bradley Jr all figuring to compete for a spot in spring training. Those are enough players to easily fill two outfields at the MLB level.
If Castillo can hold down center field at Fenway Park and get in 450-500 ABs, the sky could be the limit with his surroundings. It’s for this reason he’s a better bet at production than Yasmany Tomas, who will play in a much thiner lineup. His projected WAR for the upcoming schedule of games in 2015 is a modest 2.3.
3. OF Yasiel Puig – Los Angeles Dodgers
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Yasiel Puig can be one of the best all-around players in the National League. At times, in separate instances, he has been. The 24-year old has shown his speed, his glove, his arm and his bat in flashes throughout his first two seasons, but is yet to put it all together. When he does, a .290 batting average matched with 30 home runs and 100 RBI could become the norm for his seasonal production levels.
However, now that Matt Kemp and Ramirez have departed from La-la-land, there will be more pressure on Puig to indeed become the player with the above numbers. His ability to avoid a sophomore slump in 2014 bodes well for his success moving forward, but his career strikeout rate of 20.6 percent will have to come down some. Puig displayed a mild improvement between 2013 and 2014 in this category, dropping from 22.5 percent to 19.4 percent. The better he gets with his plate discipline, the better the Dodgers will be.
Steamer projections put Puig with a .291-85-22-74-13 line in 2015. A somewhat conservative projection for 542 at-bats, the Cuban slugger bashed 19 home runs in 2013 while only registering 382 ABs. Again, being a selective hitter and understanding that he does not need to be Hank Aaron right away will pay dividends for Puig in 2015 and beyond. His WAR last season was 5.4, up from 2013’s 4.9. It is projected to be 4.9 this season.
2. OF Yoenis Cespedes – Detroit Tigers
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Tigers fans must be licking their chops imagining a healthy 1-2-3-4-5 punch in the batting order of Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes and J.D. Martinez.
Cespedes moves from being arguably the best bat in the Oakland Athletics’ lineup over the last two and a half seasons to quite possibly the fourth best hitter in Detroit’s lineup. With the protection he will be granted in 2015, big things are on his horizon. Add to that the motivation of playing in a contract season and El Talento is bound to impress this year.
Cespedes has more MLB service time than any of the other players on this list. He’s played in 85 percent of his squads games since entering the league, so durability should not be an issue. Three straight seasons with at least 20 home runs and 80 RBI, his batting average could even experience a spike in 2015 due to the lineup protection he has and thus the propensity for him to get more favorable pitches thrown his way.
The 29-year old’s Steamer projection looks like this: .267-73-23-85-7. His WAR projects to be a cool 3.0.
1. 1B Jose Abreu – Chicago White Sox
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A 27-year old ROY, Jose Abreu can become more than that in the coming years. He was an absolute beast in 2014 amongst a lineup that did not have much depth or players to complement him with. Going in almost blind to a 162 game MLB campaign, Oso was an All-Star, earned a Silver Slugger award and finished fourth in AL MVP voting by hitting .317 with 36 home runs and 107 RBI. He also led the league in slugging percentage with a mark of .581, equating to an OPS of .964, the second best effort of 2014.
Chicago reeled in some pretty substantial talent this offseason to further benefit Abreu. Melky Cabrera (.301-16-73 in ’14) and Adam LaRoche (.259-26-92) are the new guys in town who will look to get the White Sox back into the postseason for the first time since 2008.
Abreu did so many outstanding things in 2014, it would be foolish to think he won’t be the most productive player on this list. A free agent in 2020, if the first baseman’s production stays on its current trajectory until then, paying him no more than $13.667 million in any given season is like finding a crumpled up 50 dollar bill in your winter jacket every November . His talent levels and value will no doubt be very pleasant perennial surprises for the ChiSox every summer.
No. 79 is expected to swing a big stick again in 2015. His WAR is estimated to be 4.5 with an overall line of .293-88-36-102-3, also anticipating a drop in his strikeout frequency too.