As much as Chicago Cubs faithful have to look forward to in the future, starting pitcher Edwin Jackson‘s contract is something they wish could be history. The German born hurler has been real ugly for the Cubbies over the last two seasons. You would be hard pressed to find an uglier starter in all of MLB, given his active $52 million dollar price tag.
Then again, why is Jackson still being used as a starting pitcher in the majors? His career ERA of 4.63 and FIP of 4.23 has done nothing but mainly hold back the nine teams he has been part of since 2003. Maybe therein lies the rub. Someone who is as well travelled as Jackson is typically does not have a ton of redeeming qualities on the mound.
If Jackson has been good for anything, it’s been his ability to stay healthy and eat innings. Not excelling in any way with a lifetime WHIP of 1.46, merely munching away contently while his teams resorts to handing him a pay check. He has averaged 185 IP since 2007.
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Jackson’s sub-par outings for the Cubs and contract have done nothing but mock fans and essentially remind them of why a century has passed since they last hoisted the Commissioner’s Trophy. Four-years at an average of $13 million a pop is not economical. Sadly enough, it was the revered Theo Epstein’s money that was spent. So lets talk some more about that.
Epstein has obviously come to terms with his mistake. Signing Jon Lester proves as much. Making him the ace could bump Jackson to the bullpen if Kyle Hendricks, Tsuyoshi Wada or Jacob Turner prove to be capable of latching onto the fifth starting job for the pitching staff.
From 2013-14 with the Cubs, Jackson has the following hanging over his head:
- Highest ERA (5.60) as a SP with a minimum of 300 IP
- Highest opposing BAbip (.336) as a SP with a minimum of 300 IP
- Most losses (33) as a SP with a minimum of 300 IP
- 2nd highest opposing BA (.286) as a SP with a minimum of 300 IP
- 2nd fewest wins (14) as a SP with a minimum of 300 IP
- 8th highest BB/9 (3.46) as a SP with a minimum of 300 IP
- 16th lowest FIP (4.08) as a SP with a minimum of 300 IP
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There were 84 starting pitchers eligible for those filtered results from 2013-14. If I take the 10 next worst ERA’s that qualify , the average for their base salaries in 2015 is set at $6.75 million. This number is skewed for a few reasons, though rightfully so. Two pitchers, Kevin Correia and Roberto Hernandez, are without contracts for 2015. Also, Tim Lincecum will be paid $18 million in 2015, though he likely will not be worth that amount. But Lincecum’s name is not in the title of this article because he is a two-time Cy Young award winner, who at the time of signing his two-year extension in 2012, had a lifetime ERA of 3.31 and a WPCT of .585.
Jackson is set to make $13 million in 2015. He had a lifetime WPCT of .496 before signing with Chicago. Since the contract was created, his WPCT has dropped from .308 in 2013 when he led the league in losses (18), to .286 in 2014. Jackson is such a disaster, he actually has a lower ERA as a starter (4.61) in 262 games than he does as a reliever (5.56) in 31 games.
In the baseball world, a reliever with a 5.56 ERA does not play for a big league club. If the Cubs actually have to resort to using him in that role, $13 million will be a deplorable figure at which Epstein can only shake his head. The contract is, or should be, absolutely un-tradable.
Photo courtesy of baseballplayersalaries.com
One last caveat, if you will. My favorite new website is baseballplayersalaries.com. Here I will take an average relief pitcher who has managed to get by making a career for himself in MLB that is around the same age as Jackson is (31). Let’s say Carlos Villanueva, who just happens to be a former teammate of Jackson’s and turns 32 next November. Both right-handed pitchers, Villanueva made $5 million last season, posting a 4.64 ERA. For his four relief wins in 2014, the Cubs paid $1.25 million per win. In Jackson’s case, despite starting 27 games, the club paid $1,833,333 per win to him in 2014.
Alternatively, Jackson ate up 17.45 percent of the Cubs’ 2014 payroll, but contributed -10.45 percent to the teams on-field performance. Villanueva was 7.93 percent of the teams payroll, but was far less destructive. He is credited with a -0.45 percent contribution to on-field results. Villanueva remains un-signed and is still a free agent for the upcoming season.
I wasn’t going to write it, but then the caption from the player comparison on the Baseball Salaries website and photo above nudged me in the right direction — Edwin Jackson is a bum. The Cubs made a terrible deal and could very well end up paying a player $13 million to play Triple-A for them in 2015. He might as well, because his WAR as a Cub is -3.6.