New York Yankees 2015 Preview, Predictions
Last season was the New York Yankees second consecutive year with 84-plus wins. And man did they grind to get every one of them, coming in dead last with an average margin of victory at 2.7 runs in 2014. They also were 10th in the American League in run differential with a mark of -31.
2014 was a season that brought the Yankees absence from the playoffs to two years running. Set to have the second fattest payroll next to only the Dodgers in 2015 and an aging roster of players thought mostly to be past their prime, will that streak push to a third season? Or will the Bronx Bombers find a way to do what they couldn’t last year for the Captain after not giving him a chance to play baseball in October?
More from New York Yankees
- Time for the Yankees to embrace change: A call for Brian Cashman’s departure
- Stock Up, Stock Down: Braves, Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox
- New York Yankees: The harsh decline of Luis Severino
- New York Yankees: 4 players who are on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- New York Yankees: Everson Pereira awaiting call-up in Triple-A
That’s right, Derek Jeter is gone. It probably still has not sunk in for a lot of Bronx Bleacher Creatures, but it will when Didi Gregorius starts making them scowl. A new, Jeter-less era in Yankee-dom will begin in its infancy. New York will try to get what they can from Gregorius and Stephen Drew up the middle. But there will be a different feel to games now. After all, Jeter called Yankee Stadium — both old and new — home for pretty much two whole decades. If fans can take one thing away from his departure, it will be that they got much younger at the position. The loss of leadership can be offset by increased production. But will it? Minimally, it looks like. Jeter had a WAR of only 0.6 over the final three seasons of his career. Gregorius’ WAR from 2012-14 is 2.6.
Jeter batted second in all but 20 games in 2014. Jacoby Ellsbury will probably be the favorite to slide into that spot now because he combines speed with an above average on-base percentage and spent most of last season batting third. If we assume as much, the Opening Day lineup should look something like this:
- Brett Gardner – 7
- Jacoby Ellsbury – 8
- Carlos Beltran – 9
- Brian McCann – 2
- Alex Rodriguez – DH
- Mark Teixeira – 3
- Chase Headley – 5
- Stephen Drew – 4
- Didi Gregorius – 6
Long has shortstop been a source of quality production at the position for the Yankees. Now it becomes their weakest bat. Gregorius has digressed every year he’s been in the league since 2012 when his average was .300 in only 20 at-bats. It then fell to .252 in 357 ABs and finally to .226 in 270 ABs in 2014. Granted, he did not play any of those seasons in pinstripes, but his lifetime sample size at Yankee Stadium (2-for-5) is too small to project any safe outcomes either.
If I had to make a modest proposal about shortstop situation, I think Drew will finish the season as the Yankees’ No. 1 guy and prospect Rob Refsnyder will work his way into a starting gig at second base to infuse some youth into the lineup. He will be 24 by Opening Day and slashed .300/.389/.456 in 77 games with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in 2014. As listed above, Gardner through Gregorius would give the Yankees’ starting lineup an average of 32.5 years of age.
How much can really be expected out of the likes of Teixeira (35), Beltran (38) and Rodriguez (39)? All three of them will be hard pressed to get 600 plate appearances this season with their aging bodies, plus A-Rod has not seen MLB pitching in over a year. Skipper Joe Girardi will again be constantly shuffling his lineup trying to keep players fresh. The Yankees used 142 different lineup combinations in 2014. The Red Sox were right up there with 145, but after that the remainder of the AL East had much more stability, with the Rays coming in third at 129 combinations.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
Then there is the Headley contract and everything that comes with it. Or rather, everything that doesn’t. Is GM Brian Cashman that insistent on Rodriguez not playing third base that he decided to roadblock him with Headley, or does Cashman actually think Headley is worth $13 million per season until he’s 34? Both alternatives are terrible scenarios for baseball in New York. Not counting Headley’s anomalous 2012 season of .286-31-115 (which was a high pressure contract year, by the way), his career average produces a line of .258-11-51. His glove is pretty solid, but it’s still a bad contract attached to poor production.
The rotation hinges on Masahiro Tanaka‘s elbow. Even if he manages 30 starts, Nathan Eovaldi got roughed up last year in the NL East and Michael “Pine Tar” Pineda has mustered a paltry 76.1 IP in the big leagues since the conclusion of his 2011 rookie season. The unit isn’t a strength for the Yankees, though it’s not a weakness either. It’s just average. The bullpen will be the highest performing group in the Bronx this summer. 6-foot-8 youngster Dellin Betances will again be the “Beast from Brooklyn,” getting ample support from the likes of Andrew Miller with bounce back seasons on tap from Justin Wilson and David Carpenter.
Going out on a limb, I do think A-Rod silences some of his critics by bouncing back with a .270-30-90 line. C.C. Sabathia closes in briskly on retirement and the club grapples with the reality of a worse season than in 2014 by trading away players like Beltran and Teixeira (both FAs in 2017) at the deadline for whatever they can get in order to revamp their crusty old lineup for 2016 and make preparations for further beyond.
The New York Yankees will not be battling for a Wild Card spot in 2015. Rather, they’ll be going head-to-head with the Tampa Bay Rays to prevent a 90 loss season in the AL East.