Minor league contracts are well-known for offering franchises low-risk, high-reward players on short, controllable deals.
The Blue Jays recently signed Cuban import Dayan Viciedo and former Cy Young winner Johan Santana to minor league pacts. These two players have the potential to give Toronto a significant return on their investment, as most veterans on MiLB deals do. However, the risk may outweigh the reward in this case.
Should both Vicideo and Santana make the major league roster, as expected, they could cost over $9MM combined in based salary and incentives.
Vicideo has hit 63 home runs over the past three seasons, and Santana is one of the more decorated active pitchers in the league, so certainly $9 million is not a crazy overpay for their services. But after MLBTradeRumors reported that the team signed these two players rather helping the bullpen, I cannot help but think that these deals were the wrong move for the franchise.
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Toronto’s top three relievers, Brett Cecil, Aaron Sanchez, and Aaron Loup, all enjoyed very successful 2014 seasons. Todd Redmond, pegged as the fourth guy in the pen, also pitched well. He sported a nice 3.24 ERA in 75 games last season and should continue to eat innings this year. However, beyond these four options, the ‘pen can be described as shaky at best.
The fifth pitcher on the depth chart, Wilton Lopez posted a 4.06 ERA in 2013 with the Rockies and was demoted to Triple-A last season after just four outings. Chad Jenkins owns a career 3.25 ERA, but the 27-year-old has yet to to appear in more than 21 games in a season. Kyle Drabek, the probable owner of the final spot in the pen, has 5.27 career ERA and has not been close to decent since 2012.
The four solid arms minimize the problem to an extent. But the strength of a team’s bullpen can make or break it’s chances at the playoffs, especially for a team on the cusp like the Jays.
The team already has a good enough outfield, and it is not like Viciedo is going to be much of a help. Michael Saunders will be back in the lineup by mid-April, rising star Dalton Pompey should thrive in his first full season, and Jose Bautista will be anchoring right field. Kevin Pillar will take over in left until Saunders returns, so Viciedo will likely begin the season as the team’s fourth-outfielder, netting his $2.5M sitting on the bench.
And besides the fact that he won’t be seeing the field much, it’s reasonable to ask if Viciedo can even help the team when he is playing. Last year, the 25 year old struck out 122 times while walking in just 32 at-bats.
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The Jays’ starting pitching staff is not as strong as their outfield, but it would still be just fine without Santana. R.A. Dickey is a lock for 200+ innings atop the rotation, Marcus Stroman is looking to build off a breakout season, and the consistent Mark Buehrle slots in at number three. Drew Hutchinson and Marco Estrada should be the team’s fourth and fifth starters, and top prospect Daniel Norris will likely join the rotation following the super two deadline. Santana will not be ready by Opening Day, but he should become the team’s fifth starter when he reaches full strength.
It may sound nice to have a top-tier veteran pitcher filling out the back end of your staff, but can we expect Santana to be better and more durable than Marco Estrada or Daniel Norris? His last big league action was three seasons ago, and even then he was a well below-average pitcher with a 4.85 ERA and 79 ERA+. In fact, you have to go back to 2008 for the last time Santana started more 30 games.
Estrada, on the other hand, has pitched at least 128 innings the last three seasons and averaged a decent 4.21 ERA, while Norris is nearly big league ready and one of the more exciting pitching prospects in baseball.
There is certainly no guarantee that either Viciedo or Santana plays well. Anthopoulous could have instead a better gamble on a few relievers that would have pushed firmly Toronto into contender territory. Credit Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com for providing us with this brief list of low-cost relief pitchers who signed new contracts this offseason.
RHP Burke Badenhop — $1 million with the Reds plus a $4 million mutual option for 2016 with a $1.5 million buyout.
RHP Joba Chamberlain — $1 million with the Tigers, plus an additional $500,000 possible through incentives
RHP Jason Grilli — $8 million over two years with the Braves
RHP Casey Janssen — $5 million with the Nationals
RHP Jason Motte — $4.5 million with the Cubs
RHP Alexi Ogando — $1.5 million with the Red Sox, plus an additional $1.5 million through incentives
RHP Luke Hochevar — $10 million over two years with the Royals
The $5-9MM allotted to Viciedo and Santana, albeit non-guaranteed, could have been used to sign at least three of these players. Or the team could have used the money to bring in an elite set-up man or closer like Luke Hochevar.
Minor league deals are never albatrosses, but given the stinginess of the Jays franchise that MLBTR reported earlier this offseason, these two minor league deals seem like the wrong investment of seemingly limited resources.
We cannot determine the true verdict of these deals until the end of this season. But if the Blue Jays fall a few games short of the playoffs due to an increased reliance on inexperienced relievers, maybe Athonpolous will realize that not all minor league deals are good ones for a ball club. Right now, though, he seems perfectly content with his work.
"“Any minor league deal, there’s no downside to it. You always take chances on those.” -Alex Anthopoulous the Blue Jays General Manager, on the signings of Viciedo and Santana."