Keep an Eye On: Athletics’ Prospect Matt Olson

Grading on the Curve has been taking a look at top prospects in Spring Training who have the best shot at providing an impact for their Major League team in the near future. Our last player to watch was Diamondbacks’ prospect Peter O’Brien. Today we’ll take a look at a young slugger in the Athletics’ system, first basemen Matt Olson.

Drafted in the Compensation Round (47th overall) by the A’s in 2012, Olson has displayed raw power through the lower levels of the Minors, to a tune of 69 homers in 122 games. He has flown somewhat under the radar of prospect rankings over the last few years, but it isn’t hard to make the case that he belongs among the top prospects in the game. The Cubs’ Kris Bryant and Rangers’ Joey Gallo are currently the cream of the crop when it comes to the best power hitters in the Minors. Olson has a chance to get to the same level as these two, as long as he continues to improve and works on some weaknesses in his game.

The 2-year old hit 37 homers in 2014, which ranked him near the top of the list of home run hitters across the Minor Leagues, only a couple shy of Bryant and Gallo. He added 4 more in his 11 games spent in the Arizona Fall League, where he impressed against other top prospects. When he didn’t hit the ball out of the yard, he had a tendency to find a gap, smacking 32 total doubles. Granted, Olson spent the entire season at Advanced-A Stockton, but the power figures are impressive nonetheless. He is a year younger than Gallo and two years younger than Bryant, so he still has some time to refine his game. Putting up a 40-homer season over the next couple years is definitely in the cards if he can stay consistent as he advances to the upper Minors.

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The 6 foot 5 inch, 230 pounder has the prototypical body you look for in a slugging first basemen, with a a smooth lefthanded swing that generates a lot of deep fly balls. Like most power hitters, he struggles with strikeouts and making consistent contact. His swing can get long at times, which leads to somewhat of an all-or-nothing approach. However, Olson’s career strikeout rate of 24.1 percent is actually better than Gallo’s (34.5 percent) and Bryant’s (27.4 percent). This number is of course affected by the A’s slugger only playing in the low Minors, but it at least gives him room to regress and stay in the general area as Bryant and Gallo when it comes to swinging and missing.

When you’re a power hitter who strikes out a fair amount, you better be able to take a walk. Luckily for Olson, his plate discipline is as impressive as his power. He led the Minors in walks in 2014, with a whopping 117. This gave him an OBP over .400, despite hitting for a .262 batting average. His contact rate is somewhat concerning, but as long as he is hitting homers and doubles when he does make contact, and continuing to walk a lot, he can live with being in the .240-.250 range with his batting average.

Coming out of high school as a two way player, his above average arm gives him the chance to be a solid defensive first basemen. The A’s have tried him in the outfield and at third base, but a lack of foot speed limits his ability at those positions. His large frame makes him an obvious fit at first base, where he may actually be own of the more athletic players compared to others at the position.

The Atlanta-born Olson has the chance to be the next great slugger to come out of Georgia. 2014 will be his first Major League Spring Training, and will serve as a place for him to get his feet wet above anything else. Having not played above Advanced-A ball, The A’s likely just want to get their budding star familiarized with some better competition before starting him in Double-A to start the 2015 campaign.

I think that the earliest we see Olson in Oakland would be during a late season call-up in 2015. That would only be possible if he were to continue to rake in Double-A through the first half of the season. More realistically, he won’t be rushed to the Majors and won’t see his debut until sometime during the 2016 season. It would be a good bet to pencil him into the A’s lineup for Opening Day 2017. He should be fun to watch over the next few years, as he continues to mature and develop into a better player.

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