Winker, Stephenson among players Reds send to minors

The Cincinnati Reds only needed seven at-bats to decide their top two prospects would start the season in the minors.

Okay, that’s not entirely true. The Reds have made their first cuts of Spring Training, and outfielder Jesse Winker, the Reds’ top position player prospect, and Robert Stephenson, the team’s top pitching prospect, were among the 10 players heading to the minors, but the way those two players have performed thus far had nothing to do with the roster moves; Winker has two hits in seven at bats this spring and Stephenson hasn’t pitched due to shoulder tightness.

Seeing those two high-profile names on the list shouldn’t be alarming—but there is an interesting omission among those heading to the minors, but more on that later. In fact, the Reds probably knew Winker and Stephenson would start in the minors months ago.

For one, the Reds don’t have gaping holes that need to be filled by these two players. The Reds’ outfield is currently occupied by speed demon Billy Hamilton, Jay Bruce and an aging but still productive Marlon Byrd. Throw in super-utility man Skip Schumaker, and there aren’t a lot of at bats available for Winker. Stephenson’s services would make a more immediate impact after the Red traded pitchers Mat Latos (Marlins) and Alfredo Simon (Detroit), but the Reds still have a quality pitching staff, at least on paper.

Another is that both need more playing time before they are big-league ready. Winker has only 77 at bats at Double-A and is only 21-years old. Stephenson is 22-years old and has the high-90s fastball and plus curveball to become a front-line starter, but he has never pitched above Double-A.

Winker had a great year in 2014, slashing .287/.399/.518 with 15 home runs between High-A and Double-A. Winker’s power numbers started to show, as his at bats per home run fell for the third straight season, from 45.6 in 2012 to 18.2 in 2014. He carried his momentum into the Arizona Fall League when he won the league’s batting title (.338 AVG) and hit three home runs.

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Stephenson, however, had a difficult 2014. After posting ERAs of 3.18 and 2.99 and WHIPs of 1.185 and 1.111 the two previous seasons, those numbers jumped to 4.74 and 1.379 in 2014. The source of his down year was his loss of control over the strike zone: Stephenson’s strikeout-to-walk ratio fell to 1.89 in 2014 after it was 3.89 in 2013, and his walks per nine innings rose from 2.8 to 4.9 over the same span.

The shoulder tightness in Stephenson is a concern, but his workload didn’t increase an exorbitant amount: he pitched in 19.2 percent more innings in 2014 (136.1) than he did in 2013 (114.1), which according to Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci, means Stephenson isn’t likely to experience a catastrophic injury or significant regression in 2015.

The last reason deals with player control. The Reds gain at least a year of control over these two prospects; in Winker’s case, likely more; by keeping them in the minors. The Indians are taking a similar approach with the highly-talented Francisco Lindor.

Now to the interesting name not on the list of players the Reds cut: outfielder Kyle Waldrop. Waldrop was put on the 40-man roster back in November to protect him from the Rule-5 Draft, and the Reds may use him as a holdover until the more talented Winker is ready for the majors.

Waldrop had an even better 2014 (.338/.385/.516) than Winker and he did it at the same levels of the minors. Waldrop’s season is largely attributable to providential luck, as his BABIP rose 77 points from 2013 to 2014. However, he did cut down on his strikeouts (22.4 K% in 2013 to 18.5 in 2014) and he carried that momentum into the Arizona Fall League, where he slashed .300/.325/.463, giving the Reds two of the best hitters in the AZFL and suggesting Waldrop may have taken big strides.

Winker is the better defender than Waldrop, who played first base in the AZFL, and Winker has the more consistent track record as a hitter. But an adequate placeholder until Winker is ready in 2016 wouldn’t be such a bad thing.