In accordance with the earlier slideshow of the same genre published last week on fielding a top notch arsenal of position players for the lowest real-life combined total as the 2015 Houston Astros will have (roughly $32 million), here is the pitching staff version to complement the lineup and complete a full 25-man roster.
Though the Astros will be fielding a cheap roster of position players in 2015, it’s the Cleveland Indians who will have the least amount of money tied up in their pitching in 2015. As of now, only $14.67 million is devoted to pitchers on their active 25-man roster.
Since I used 13 players to complete the position player version of this experiment, that leaves me with 12 spots to fill for an average of $1.25 million per arm in order to round out the 25-man roster. The pitching staff will be composed of the standard five starters in the rotation, with seven bullpen arms. Only a player’s base salary will be used as a foundation for creating the staff.
The grand total payroll for this pitching staff works out to $15,699,500.
Ace – RHP Alex Cobb, $4,000,000
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Alex Cobb is a great bargain at only a $4 million base salary in 2015. He has ace stuff and enough veteran experience at 27-years of age to be the anchor of this dream rotation.
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While his durability has not been one of his biggest assets since breaking into MLB in 2011, the Boston native has started no less than 22 games over his last three seasons. If the Tampa Bay Rays get 32 starts out of him in 2015, excluding bonuses or incentives, it will cost them only $125,000 per start. There is great value in that.
Cobb has a lifetime ERA of 3.21 as a professional. 2014 was a strong campaign for him despite again visiting the disabled list. He finished the season with a 2.87 ERA, a FIP of 3.23 a WAR of 3.9 and 17 quality starts. His QSPCT of 0.630 ranked him 18th highest in the entire American League for pitchers with a minimum of 160 IP.
A healthy Cobb will be the ace of the Rays in 2015. But that’s not to be taken lightly, as Tampa Bay has a number of young and talented arms on the rise in recent years. Compared to what former Rays teammate David Price will now be paid in 2015 ($19.75 M) with the Detroit Tigers, Cobb’s $4 million salary may produce similar, if not superior numbers, for Tampa Bay this year.
No. 2 – RHP Corey Kluber, $507,000
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Corey Kluber made as big a stride forward as any pitcher can make in a one year window. In 2013, he was used as a starter in 24 games and logged two appearances in a relief role as well. He posted a 3.85 ERA with an 11-5 record. Perhaps the best indicator of his future success was in his K:BB ratio. In 2013 it was an impressive 4.12 before jumping to 5.27 in 2014. It’s obvious he has excellent command of his pitches and is able to pick his locations.
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Of course, 2014 is well documented history now, as Kluber went on to upset Felix Hernandez and take home a Cy Young award as a 28-year old in his first full season pitching from within a big league rotation. Not even eligible for arbitration until next offseason, it would be foolish to keep him off this roster.
The only reason I am hesitant to not grant him ace status is his track record is not as solid as Cobb’s, though his durability may be a little better. With Kluber’s salary of $514,000 in 2015, the Cleveland Indians only paid $28,555 per win. His WAR of 7.4 was second only to NL MVP and Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw.
Kluber is one of a couple very talented but inexpensive arms the Tribe has in their system. The deadline has passed for signing pre-arbitration eligible players. Though it seems unfair, Kluber is set to make around the league minimum in base salary for 2015. It’s for reasons like this the Indians’ pitching staff has a payroll currently just shy of $15 million, yet their team ERA ranked 14th best in MLB in 2014. Carlos Carrasco, T.J. House and Trevor Bauer all have a lot of potential and are all younger than the Klubot is.
No. 3 – LHP Danny Duffy, $2,425,000
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Every exceptional rotation needs its left-handed specialist. The ’66 Dodgers had Sandy Koufax, the 1990’s Braves had Tom Glavine and the ’03 Athletics had Barry Zito and Mark Mulder. This dream rotation is no different.
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After being patient and doing more than his fair share of relief duty in 2014, Royals southpaw Danny Duffy blew away the competition after he made his first start on May 3. It’s a wonder why manager Ned Yost did not grant him a rotation spot out of spring training last year. He had a rough time in March, but only pitched four innings of work. In 2013, however, Duffy started five games and did surprisingly well. He went 2-0 with a 1.85 ERA, but had a poor K:BB ratio of 1.57.
In 2014, Duffy improved in a number of areas, including his K:BB ratio. It grew to 2.13 and his BB/9 rate dropped from 5.2 the previous year to 3.2 in 2014. Because talented lefties are more rarer than righties, he’ll cost a bit more than a right-hander of his relative service time and skill set.
Only 26, the California native has more than enough time to continue his growth and development as a pitcher in MLB. Duffy logged 149.1 IP in 2014, so it appears as though he is ready to take the next step and approach 200 IP and 30-plus starts for the 2015 season. With no James Shields around anymore, there’s no reason to think Duffy cannot solidify his role on the team by being named the Royals’ Opening Day starter.
No. 4 – RHP Julio Teheran, $1,000,000
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Some had Julio Teheran tagged to breakout earlier than he actually did as a well renowned IFA prospect from Venezuela. He signed in 2007 with the Atlanta Braves, but did not throw his first MLB pitch until 2011 at age 20. He appeared in only five games to mixed results, then played in only two games in 2012.
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After working things out in the minors for much of those two seasons, Teheran was able to cement himself in the Braves’ rotation in 2013 when he made 30 starts. But that can’t be considered his breakout season, because he went from impressive in 2013 with a 3.29 ERA to even better in 2014 with a 2.89 ERA, four complete games and two shutouts.
Pitching only in his age 24 season in 2015, Teheran was an outstanding find by the Braves’ international scouts and the organization handled him in such a way to maximize productivity while keeping costs to a reasonable amount.
It’s clear that Teheran is expected to be the ace of the Braves moving forward for quite some time. Last February, the Braves signed him to a six-year $32.4 million contract. He will bump up to making $3.3 million in 2016, but for now, his numbers look mighty fine for an even million dollars in 2015.
No. 5 – RHP Jacob deGrom, $500,000
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It took Jacob deGrom some time to reach the majors — about a month before his 26th birthday to be exact — but he did not disappoint upon arrival.
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With the loss of Matt Harvey to rehabilitation from surgery in 2014, deGrom quickly became the standout on the New York Mets’ rotation. His first start came on May 15 against the New York Yankees. He was a tough luck loser in that contest, throwing 99 pitches over 7 innings, allowing only a single earned run while striking out six and walking two. He did not look back from there, going on to be named NL ROY having only 22 starts to his name.
The former Stetson University Hatter (oddly enough, Kluber’s alma mater as well) had a ridiculously low 2.67 FIP to go with a 2.69 ERA. He went 9-6 with an impressive 1.14 WHIP and a K/9 of 9.2. While a FIP that low is probably too low to maintain and some regression should be expected in deGrom’s sophomore campaign, the 6-foot-4 righty will still be a valuable commodity on the Mets’ rotation in 2015. No team would turn down the opportunity to have someone of deGrom’s ability in their rotation for the base salary he will earn.
Relievers – RHP Aaron Sanchez, $500,000
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A pitching staff needs talented long-relief guys who can start in a pinch and deliver a quality outing when unforeseen circumstances or injuries arise. Over a 162 game season in baseball, those kinds of things happen a lot.
Aaron Sanchez was excellent for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2014. He did not exceed his rookie limits with only 33 IP in baseball’s second half. In the daunting AL East, the right-hander posted a remarkable 1.09 ERA in 24 appearances out of the bullpen. He had an impressive K:BB ratio of 3.00, proving that the jitters associated with large crowds and imposing hitters did not negatively affect his control.
Out of the bullpen in tense situations, managers want a pitcher who has ice water in his veins and is capable of getting the club out of jams. Sanchez appears apt at doing so, but can also handle a spot start here or there as well. Since 2010, the 22 year old has logged 77 starts in the minors including 20 spread out over Double and Triple-A in 2014 before joining Toronto in late July.
LHP Danny Hultzen, $430,000
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Danny Hultzen is the perfect candidate for a southpaw long-relief pitcher. He is a low cost, high reward option who could very well turn into one of the Seattle Mariners’ finer pitchers in the future.
The former second overall pick of the 2011 draft first started out dominating NCAA lineups while he was a nationally recognized starting pitcher at the University of Virginia. Hultzen then dominated lineups in the minors over 32 starts from 2011-13 (14-8, 2.82) before injuring his shoulder and missing all of 2014.
Now back in the saddle, Hultzen will look to get his career back on track and crack the 25-man roster for the M’s. If he does it will likely be as a reliever to start out. But don’t rule out the 25-year old ending the season on the rotation, as the M’s need to eventually groom someone to replace free agent to be Hisashi Iwakuma for the 2016 season.
RHP Kelvin Herrera, $1,600,000
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Kelvin Herrera is a flame throwing right-hander who can be counted on in the later innings of ball games. He was part of a devastating bullpen for the Royals in the 2014 regular season and postseason that more than held its own in close ball games.
The 25-year old Dominican may have future seasons where he could be called upon to be a closer, but for now this dream team is more than content with allowing Herrera to work situational match-ups in the seventh and eighth inning of games. Herrera threw a fastball in 2014 that maxed out at 101.4 mph. It’s average velocity showed a mark of 96.4 mph on radar guns throughout last year. Opponents hit .217 against it and posted an overall BAA of .211 as a whole versus Herrera. It more than translated to success for him, with an ERA of 1.41 and a FIP of 2.69.
Herrera is arbitration eligible after the 2016 season and under Kansas City’s control through the 2018 season. With current closer Greg Holland costing the Royals $8.25 million in 2015 and set to be a free agent after 2016, it’s very likely Herrera could be the clubs closer of the future if he can maintain his lifetime 2.56 ERA and 8.8 K/9 moving forward.
LHP Tony Watson, $1,750,000
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Tony Watson is a solid option for a late inning lefty. Not only did he boast a very impressive 10-2 record for a relief pitcher in 2014, but Watson did an excellent job of managing the eighth inning as a setup man to Pirates closer Mark Melancon.
He worked 51 innings in the eighth last season, allowing only 11 earned runs total for a 1.94 ERA in that particular frame. Watson was even better in the seventh and ninth innings of games. Across 20 IP in the seventh, he has a 1.35 ERA and an ERA of zero in five innings pitched in the ninth.
Despite his impressive overall ERA of 1.63 in 2014, it was not due to a lack of work. Watson led the National League in appearances with 78 games and worked the sixth most amount of innings pitched with 77.1. Now 29, the southpaw has successively lowered his ERA from 3.38 in 2013 to 2.39 in 2013 to last season’s 1.63, the 10th best by any reliever who qualified in 2014.
RHP Tom Wilhelmsen, $1,400,000
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For this world class bullpen, it only makes sense to have a member of MLB’s best overall squad of relief pitcher’s from 2014. The Seattle Mariners had a ‘pen last year that got by with a cumulative ERA of 2.59. Lanky 6-foot-6 right-hander Tom Wilhelmsen was it’s biggest contributor, logging 75.1 innings of relief appearance.
He was so versatile for the M’s last season that Wilhelmsen even made two spot starts for them. Out of the bullpen he posted a 2.03 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, both ranking inside the top 25 for qualified relief pitchers.
His career ERA of 2.91 is a bit offset due to a rough 2013 when Wilhelmsen had a 4.12 mark over 59 IP. Since 2012, he’s also shown an ability to close games, having registered 54 saves in 66 opportunities. He’s more lethal in the seventh and extra innings of ball games, however. In the seventh, he boasts a career ERA of 0.94, while he has pitched 25 extra innings in his career to the tune of a very tidy 1.08 ERA.
LHP Fernando Abad, $1,087,500
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The Oakland Athletics have done wonders in recent years with their inexpensive yet efficient bullpens. Over the last three seasons, their combined bullpen ERA’s have consistently ranked inside the top six league-wide. The correlation between those results and the fact the A’s have qualified for playoffs in all three of those years is no fluke.
Fernando Abad is the other left-handed arm that will pair with Watson on this roster to get the make-believe dream team out of tight situations after the starter has exited games. Ryan Cook ($1.4 M) and Sean Doolittle (750K) are also great bargains on the A’s roster, but Cook is a righty and Doolittle is presently injured.
Abad flourished in a move to an American League roster last season after pitching four straight seasons in the National League. Last year with the A’s, Abad’s ERA of 1.08 and WHIP of 0.85 ranked him inside the top 10 for all relievers in those categories. The southpaw held both left and right-handed hitter’s to batting averages against under .200. In fact, Abad proved to be more effective against right-handers despite being a lefty. Abad’s BAbip of .211 was fourth best of any Major League reliever.
Closer – Dellin Betances, $500,000
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It would be a bold move on behalf of the New York Yankees to give the closer spot to Andrew Miller over Dellin Betances in 2015. The “Beast of Brooklyn” has pitches just as intimidating as his 6-foot-8, 260 pound frame.
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With David Robertson gone, it only makes sense for last year’s setup man to assume ninth inning duties. No reliever struck out more hitter’s than Betances did in 2014. His 135 mark outdid the second highest mark set by Wade Davis by 26 strikeouts. Amongst relievers, his WHIP of 0.78 was the third best in the league, his FIP the fourth best and his BAbip of .241 ranked 18th league-wide.
Betances has a bright future ahead of him. Even though his fastball — which he threw 645 times — averaged a nasty 96.7 mph in 2014 and was a real weapon, he threw his knuckle-curve the exact number of times to much greater success. Opponents hit his fastball at a .229 clip, compared to an extremely low BAA of .075 versus the knuckle-curve. His strikeout percentage with the fastball was 15.3 in contrast to 63.3 percent with the knuckle-curve.
Much like Yankees great and former closer Mariano Rivera, Betances also has a cut fastball in his repertoire. He threw it 69 times in 2014. If he can come at all close to being as effective with it as Rivera was throughout his career, Betances will be one of the games premier closers for years to come. He will only be 27 as of March 23.
