Left-handed reliever Josh Edgin will undergo Tommy John surgery shortly, which means, sadly, he will not pitch for the New York Mets in 2015. He will not be the only pitcher the Mets will miss to the Tommy John epidemic, however, as Zack Wheeler will also have to go under the knife soon.
While both are big losses for a team in the Big Apple — Wheeler admittedly more so than Edgin — I am strictly concentrating today on what Sandy Alderson and Co. should do now that they know Edgin will not be part of their plans in the upcoming season.
Generally speaking, New York has two conceivable options: replace Edgin with a left-handed specialist from within the organization or bring in a southpaw from the outside. Since Edgin’s diagnosis there has inevitably been speculation for whom the Mets should target. These hypothetical trades are fun on paper, but unless there’s reported interested in the player it seems foolish to concoct an unsubstantiated scenario. Luckily, there are certain players that the Mets reportedly are interested in with Brian Matusz being the main one.
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Holding left-handed hitters to a 3.05 FIP in his rocky career (Matusz wasn’t very good as a starter) and a solid 3.48 FIP last year, he could be just what the Mets need to rectify their left-handed pitcher situation, or lack thereof. Recently turning 28, Matusz has been a good relief pitcher for two years now, with 2013 being significantly better than 2014. The 2008 first round draft pick strikes guys out at an above-average rate relative to his bullpen peers and allows free passes less frequently than average. Both are good things.
Another plus Matusz brings to a bullpen is generating a lot of infield fly balls, which, parallel to strikeouts, are essentially guaranteed outs. In fact, among relievers who tossed at least 50 innings in 2014 the left-hander ranked 27th in IFFB% (infield fly ball percentage) with his mark of 14.5 percent. There are a good amount of things to like about Matusz, but it is not as simple as the Mets wanting him and getting him, because Baltimore would obviously want something in return.
It would thus be easier for the Mets to replace Edgin with someone currently in the organization. The names that come to mind would be Dario Alvarez, Sean Gilmartin, Jack Leathersich and Scott Rice, all of whom are on the 40-man roster with the exception of Rice.
Rice, though, is probably the most well-known among the four due to the fact the 33-year-old has accumulated 105 innings with the big-league club. In a small sample size last year of 13.2 IP, he posted a horrendous 7.90 BB/9 to go along with an ugly 5.93 ERA. The year before that he was much better in terms of ERA and FIP but his acceptable numbers were largely driven by an unsustainable 0.18 HR/9. All said, Rice’s unimpressive velocity and control problems makes him a long-shot, in my opinion, of being one of the two left-handed pitchers to crack the big league club.
Leathersich was awesome in a very short stint in Single-A with New York, was less awesome in Single-A+, was great in Double-A in 2013, was horrendous in Triple-A the same year, was pretty impressive in Double-A in ’14 and then finally, was putrid in Triple-A last year over a very minuscule sample size. He’s still a guy of interest.
Leathersich’s strikeout rates throughout the minor-leagues were amazing but his ugly walk rates and BABIPs negated some of the excellence that stemmed from his ability to punch batters out. ZIPS projection system sees him as a 0.3 fWAR player with a solid 3.21 ERA in 60 projected innings. Projections are projections, but if Leathersich could produce that New York would barely miss Edgin at all.
Dario Alvarez, according to Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel, has a fastball that sits in the 89-91 range with the potential to reach 93 mph and a pretty impressive slider. The 26-year-old lefty lit up the minor leagues last season, predominantly dominating with the Single-A Savannah Sand Gnats. He made the major league club late in the year, but only pitched 1.1 innings. Like Leathersich, Alvarez can strike guys out. With that said, he does not seemingly have the same glaring control problems that Leathersich possesses. ZIPS doesn’t like him as much, however, and forecasts a 3.72 ERA in roughly 66 innings.
Lastly, we have reached Gilmartin who the Mets picked up in the Rule 5 Draft after he spent last season in the upper levels of the Minnesota Twins’ organization. Off the bat, one sees Gilmartin’s discouraging ZIPS projected 4.74 ERA in approximately 125 innings of work. But those projections are if he was to be a starter, which he isn’t going to be. No, if the 2011 first round draft pick were to make the club he’d be reliever — maybe a long reliever — but a reliever no less. I do not wish to delve upon the statistical differences between relievers and starters but generally relievers put up better numbers because they pitch less innings and leave everything on the line when they do go out.
As a 24-year old, Gilmartin has only made two appearances out of the bullpen in his professional career, so that could be sort of a red flag. That said, New York has an incentive for him to make the Opening Day roster because of the fact he was picked out of the Rule 5 Draft. According to the rules, if the Mets don’t keep him on the roster for the length of the season they would run the risk of losing him entirely. He does have a lauded changeup that could play better in a relief role, but it’s the other stuff that is concerning.
The New York Mets will probably start the season with two left-handed pitchers. That is how things usually are done, and I anticipate they will conform to this strategy. Josh Edgin’s injury puts them in a difficult position. Their bullpen was bad enough last year, ranking dead last in fWAR among MLB clubs with a cumulative -1.6 mark. Bobby Parnell‘s return some point in 2015 should bolster the group, but he will remain fragile for a while, as he underwent TJ surgery less than a year ago.
If I were making decisions on behalf of the Mets, I think trading a mid-to-low-level prospect for Matusz or another established lefty specialist would be behooving of them. They have a legitimate shot at being the second best team in the NL East and gaining a reliable lefty for a few years would not be bad for a team close to competing.
If a few things go their way, the Mets could find themselves as a Wild Card team, whom we all know did pretty well last year. I think adding a veteran left-hander outside the organization would be wise to replace Josh Edgin with.
As far as the second spot is concerned, I think Alvarez is the best bet to succeed. Leathersich’s BABIPs and BB/9s in the minor leagues are just too much for me to overlook. In the end, I think it comes down to those two, with Gilmartin lagging slightly behind.
This is just some blogger’s contentious opinion, but if I had Alderson’s ear, I would tell him everything I just told the reader about his organization.