Last season was a train-wreck for the Tampa Bay Rays. It started early and didn’t get any better as the months on the calendar turned.
It’s happening again. The Rays’ poor fortune carried over to 2015, with news that pitchers Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly will likely miss Opening Day with various arm ailments. This is in addition to missing pitcher Matt Moore, who missed most of last season after he underwent Tommy John surgery, until at least June.
The AL East doesn’t have a clear favorite, but the Rays won’t compete this season, especially if their pitching staff is already dealing with health issues. Yes, the Rays have pitching depth in the minor leagues. But it’s not ready to help them compete in a division where the Red Sox have five solid starters, the Blue Jays are poised to contend and Baltimore has a healthy Manny Machado and Chris Davis. The Rays should bide their time until 2016 and ’17, when the pitching depth will be fully manifested into a stable of (hopefully) healthy starters and a loaded bullpen.
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This isn’t to say there aren’t valuable pieces available right now, because there are. Just don’t look for the Rays to drastically improve on their already mediocre 13th best team ERA (3.56) and 20th ranked bullpen ERA (3.71) from 2014, at least not yet. Since Cobb’s and Smyly’s statuses are uncertain, youngsters like Alex Colome—who is dealing with pneumonia at the moment and won’t pitch for at least a couple more days—Matt Andriese and Burch Smith, if he’s healthy, will have to start games.
Colome is the best candidate to help fill the void, and once he gets over pneumonia, it’s his job to lose. He’s been solid the past three seasons in the minors, posting ERAs of 3.44, 3.07 and 3.53. He’s dealt with some control issues but has steadily improved his walk rate (4.2 BB/9IP in 2012 , 3.2/ 9 in 2014) and he had success in his three major-league starts last season; 5.2 IP, 1R, 4BB on June 27; 6.2 innings, 0R on six hits on September 15; and 6.1 innings, 0R on four hits on September 27.
Andriese, like Colome, has been steady if not stellar all through the minors. In 2014, he pitched to a 3.77 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 2.7 K/BB, which followed a solid 3.27/1.22/3.62 showing in 2013. Since the Rays likely won’t compete anyway, having Andriese as a fifth starter in April can’t hurt anything and will give the Rays a spot starter the rest of the season.
Other options are Smith and Nate Karns. Smith will need to be healthy in order to compete for the fifth spot. He made the majors as a Padre in 2013 after he posted a combined 3.34 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in the minors from 2012-13. He then missed almost all of 2014 to injury, and even though he struggled in the Arizona Fall League, the Rays thought he was good enough to be part of the package they got for Wil Myers. If he regains his previous form, he’s another great option for the Rays, both in 2015 and beyond. Karns, on the other hand, is likely bound for a career out of the bullpen: in his two starts in MLB in 2014, he gave up six runs in 12 innings and walked four batters. Even more troubling, his K-rate (10.5 to 9.5) and walk rate (3.3 to 3.8) went the wrong directions from 2013 to 2014.
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The last candidate to be a starter is Enny Romero, but like pitchers Mike Montgomery, Karns, and Jose Dominguez, he’s bound for the bullpen. His ERA ballooned to 4.50 in Triple-A last season, even though the International League doesn’t have a hitter-friendly reputation. Durham, N.C., where the Rays’ Triple-A squad plays, is typically a hitter’s haven, but Romero started more games on the road (14 on the road, 11 at home) and his ERA was higher (5.29 to 3.57) on the road. He does have closer potential, considering his fastball touches 99 mph from the left side, which would be a valuable asset in the future.
Regardless of who fills out the rotation this season, there will be growing pains in 2015. An encouraging development, however, is that Rene Rivera is the new catcher. The Rays were tolerant of Jose Molina’s poor batsmanship over the past few seasons because of the way he handles a pitching staff. In 2014, Molina got 115 extra strikes called, according to Baseball Prospectus, and saved 16.5 runs. Rivera was even better, earning 176 extra strikes and saving 26.3 runs. Rivera’s skill at giving a young pitching staff extra strikes means they’ll be more confident and the learning curve will be shortened in both 2015 and ’16.
The pitching depth won’t make the Rays competitive in 2015. It’s just not ready yet. But, if Rivera helps guide Colome, Smith, Andriese and the youngsters who will soon populate the bullpen, 2016 and ’17 won’t have to be as bad as ’15.