Bench boss Brad Ausmus of the Detroit Tigers has made it clear there is no spring competition for the 2015 closer role. The job will 40-year old Joe Nathan‘s to lose. History does not favor Nathan in his quest to hold down that spot in the bullpen from Opening Day into September.
Since 1985, only four relief pitcher’s have totaled more than 20 saves in their age 40 season. And it’s a pretty elite class of arms; Doug Jones in 1997 (36), Mariano Rivera in 2010 (33), Trevor Hoffman in 2008 (30) and Dennis Eckersley in 1995 (29). Save for Jones who still managed to tally 300-plus saves in his career, those are all Hall of Fame pitcher’s. Or should be.
Detroit Tigers
Hoffman becomes eligible for votes in 2016. He might have zero World Series rings in contrast to Rivera’s five titles, but if Hoffman is not a first ballot Hall of Famer, the BBWAA seriously will need to rethink their priorities and biases. Hoffman was the first closer to reach the 500 and 600 career saves milestones and he is currently ranked second on the all-time list behind Rivera.
Needless to say, Nathan was a very good closer. Was seems to be the requisite word here. He has an outside shot at becoming a Hall of Fame closer. A decent season would catapult Nathan, currently seventh all-time in saves with 376, past Eckersley who has 290. So 14 saves is the magical number for him. In the early going with a fresh arm, maybe, but 30 is a huge stretch.
In 2014 Nathan mustered 35 saves in 42 opportunities with a monstrous ERA for a closer of 4.81. It was a huge fall from grace off his 2013 numbers with the Texas Rangers when he saved 43 games in 46 opportunities and sported a 1.39 ERA along the way.
The departure of Joaquin Benoit to the Padres following the 2013 season necessitated a need for the Tigers to sign Nathan to a free agent contract for two years and $20 million. There is a $10 million option for 2016 as well with a $1 million buyout. Given Nathan’s age and regression, the Tigers will put a lot of emphasis on his abilities in 2015 in order to evaluate the option for 2016.
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Nathan saved 35 games last season because really, the Tigers had a lack of arms in the bullpen they could turn to. Joba Chamberlain (2-5, 3.57) and Al Alburquerque (3-1, 2.51) were the fallback options for a time and had three saves in seven opportunities between the two of them.
Eventually, the Tigers pulled the trigger at the 2014 trade deadline and acquired another ex-Ranger in Joakim Soria. After saving 17 games with a 2.71 ERA for the Rangers, he too was miserable upon landing in the Motor City. He went 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA and spent significant time on the disabled list.
For 2015, Nathan will be on a much shorter leash than he was in 2014. Soria is 31 in May and has fired seven scoreless innings of spring ball thus far. Nathan, meanwhile, has an ERA of 5.79 having given up 12 hits in only 9.1 innings of work.
If 30, or even 20 saves is a stretch for Joe Nathan this season, it’s likely that by the time Soria celebrates his 31st birthday on May 18 and is healthy, he will be the Detroit Tigers’ full-time closer. Alburquerque may still be an option as well, plus 25-year old Jose Valdez who has 90 career saves and a 3.20 ERA in the minors — if he makes the 25-man roster. He has a save with a 1.29 ERA over seven innings in spring training.