Ranking the top 5 dark horse 2015 NL MVP candidates

Giancarlo Stanton. Andrew McCutchen. Buster Posey. Clayton Kershaw. Easy choices, and each are almost guaranteed to draw votes for the 2015 National League Most Valuable Player during the upcoming season. For good reason, too, as each are amazing players who play vital roles for their respective teams. They have shown over the past five seasons they are the players to beat, and have also shown that they likely will be names in the history books when all is said and done.

Jonathan Lucroy. Anthony Rendon. Josh Harrison. While these are names of capable and worthy players, they are not definitive All-Star brand names. At the beginning of the 2014 season, many expert analysts knew that these respective players would produce at a strong rate, but to the general populace of baseball fans these names were just names of any other baseball player. At the end of year, it was shown that each of these three players played a vital role on their respective teams, and each made it into the top 10 of the NL MVP vote during the 2014 season.

A dark horse candidate does not need to be a total no-namer to be a true dark horse, but they also should not be a name branding your Wheaties cereal box every other year. They can be players who have been in the race in the past, but have fallen out of MVP consideration over the past few seasons. They can be young and budding players, or they can be stoic veterans who have fallen into the yearly grind of playing. Here are my top five dark horse candidates for NL MVP in 2015.

Next: Matt Kemp

5. OF Matt Kemp – San Diego Padres

Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Matt Kemp is only three seasons removed from a 2011 season where he finished second to 2011 NL MVP Ryan Braun, a season where he played all but one game and led the National League with 39 home runs and 126 RBIs, capturing a Gold Glove in centerfield. The stellar 2011 campaign marked the end of a stretch of good health for Kemp, as the two following seasons were a myriad of injury problems leading to a drop in offensive and defensive production.

Friars on Base

The 2014 season was somewhat of a turn around for the veteran outfielder, as a summertime offensive renaissance made Kemp an interesting trade chip for the Los Angeles Dodgers’ front office. Dealt accordingly to San Diego earlier this offseason, Kemp now has the ability to be a veteran presence alongside another star, Justin Upton, in the heart of a promising young Padres lineup.

Kemp remains a dark horse candidate as he will begin the season at the wrong side of age 30, where an aging body will limit his ability to recover from injury, as well as the speed he possesses on-base and in the field. However, if he can reproduce the numbers he brought to the Dodgers’ second half last season, stay healthy and maintain consistency, Kemp will be a legitimate contender for the MVP award many believe he should have won back in 2011.

Next: Anthony Rizzo

3. C Devin Mesoraco – Cincinnati Reds

Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati seems to be a ship that has sunken out of competition in the NL Central, but young catcher Devin Mesoraco has the ability to right the stern and prove that the road to the postseason won’t only stop in Cincy for the All-Star Game.

Blog Red Machine

Mesoraco had a solid 2014 campaign as well as an All-Star appearance. He took advantage of the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, slugging 25 long balls and sporting a .534 slugging percentage. A lot of maturing took place both at the plate and behind the plate last season, and for a catcher to be considered amongst MVP hopefuls, the BBWAA keep a strong eye on what happens behind the plate. Mesoraco was no slouch there, finishing 2nd in the NL in fielding percentage with a resounding .997 number. He also threw out 26 percent of potential base-stealers, a respectable number to go with his stellar fielding percentage.

A dark horse run for the MVP with Mesoraco will be heavily dependent on the Reds’ buoyancy in the stacked NL Central division, and his continuation of clutch home run hitting and strong defensive output. Sharing the division with the perennial catching star Yadier Molina keeps the Reds’ catcher somewhat chained in how many outsiders can appreciate his production. But Mesoraco may be ready to break the scene and become a front-runner in 2015. A division title for the Reds will put Mesoraco in the echelon that has drawn similar past MVP votes to teammates Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, and Johnny Cueto.

Next: Ryan Zimmerman

2. IF Ryan Zimmerman – Washington Nationals

Mandatory Credit: Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports

Make no mistake — the Nationals are littered with potential NL MVPs, but I like the underdog here.

District on Deck

Ryan Zimmerman became the face of the young Washington Nationals franchise after the end of an era in Montreal. Finishing second in NL ROY voting his rookie season in 2006, Zimmerman has been a solid and consistent hitter throughout his career and is still relatively young for the length of his tenure (age 30 after nine full seasons). He will be moving across the diamond to man first base this season after the departure of Adam LaRoche, which could be beneficial to his health after only appearing in 61 games last season.

If Zimmerman can prove that he is a dangerous complement to Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper — both with the stick and the glove — consideration will have to be made for the MVP vote. The Nationals will have a stout offensive lineup and a chance to make a deep postseason run that will bolster Zimmerman’s ability to produce. The supporting cast is present, but the 30-year old first baseman will have to keep a good health record, provide at least a .290 average, 20-plus homers, 80-plus RBI and posibly Gold Glove worthy defense.

Such a laundry list may seem daunting to those who doubt his ability, but Zimmerman is a veteran to the game and should be poised to be the best competition for MVP in Washington of all their position players.

Next: David Wright

1. 3B David Wright – New York Mets

Mandatory Credit: Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports

Okay, David Wright isn’t really a dark horse. The dude is a proven hitter that has been around long enough and been to a ton of All-Star games as well as received a bunch of MVP votes in the past. Why is he on this list?

Rising Apple

The same reason Robinson Cano headlines the AL counterpart list. Kind of. Like Cano, Wright has been a model of consistent quality hitting whose name dies out with their team’s playoff chances. The Mets are certainly not at the level of readiness the Seattle Mariners are for a postseason run, but are ready to carry at least a hope for a Wild Card spot and playing meaningful games in September. The main hurdle Wright will have to making his way towards the front of the pack (a hurdle for Zimmerman as well) is the NL MVP favorite Stanton in Miami.

If Lucas Duda can be the home run threat he was last year, and Granderson can re-establish his production he had playing for the other New York team, Wright will be the core of a potent offense. Protection in the form of Michael Cuddyer was brought in over the offseason, and the emergence of young star Juan Lagares may back Wright up into talk for the NL MVP.

The struggle for Wright is the fact that it will be a true team effort to maintain challenging for a solo award, but the productive numbers are definitely there. I think Wright is the most capable sleeper pick to dethrone the pitcher ruling Los Angeles, the masher of Miami, or the hit-stealer of the Steel City.

Next: Overcoming biases in predicting the NL ROY

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