Why the Braves bested the San Diego Padres in Craig Kimbrel trade
The San Diego Padres again continued a phenomenal re-shaping of their 2015 roster when it was announced before Opening Night on Sunday that they had acquired four-time All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel. While it immediately makes the team much better in the ninth, the Atlanta Braves got the better end of this deal.
Sure, the Braves may have traded away a future Hall of Fame closer. But for who they are now as a ball club and where they plan to be in the next two to four years time, this trade works better for them. They do not need a nine-plus million dollar per year closer as they are in full re-build mode.
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Even less important to Atlanta is an outfielder like Melvin Upton Jr. making $14.45 million in 2015 who has contributed a WAR of -1.6 since arriving there in 2013. Upton was obviously the key piece for the Braves in this trade. If it weren’t for him being reunited with his brother Justin Upton in San Diego, the Padres probably would not have agreed to take on the $46.35 million remaining on his contract. This is heavy price to pay to improve mildly in the ninth inning, because Melvin makes All-Star caliber money but has played at a minor league level the past two seasons. He is an egregiously expensive reserve player.
The Padres already had the fourth best bullpen staff in 2014. Kimbrel makes it better, but just how necessary? He certainly makes the unit more expensive. San Diego had to move relievers Kevin Quackenbush (3-3, 2.48) and Brandon Maurer (0-0, 2.17) to Triple-A because they were so deep this year at relief pitching. Former closer Joaquin Benoit is signed through 2015 with an option for 2016. He has been more than competent in a closing role over the last two seasons with an 8-3 record, a 1.78 ERA and 35 combined saves in 28 opportunities.
Benoit will now pitch in the eighth. His WAR of 9.0 over the last five seasons is not far off from Kimbrel’s 12.2. Most clubs that play the Padres will be a lot more comfortable holding a lead before the the eighth inning. But even for as good as their bullpen was last year and has a chance to be this year before Kimbrel factored in, a lot less pressure had already been taken off the shoulders of relief pitching with the signing of workhorse James Shields and the emergence of Tyson Ross last season to coincide with Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy in the rotation.
In Atlanta, the Braves received outfielder Cameron Maybin, OF/DH Carlos Quentin, two prospects and the 41st overall pick in this June’s amateur draft.
Atlanta Braves
Maybin will provide the Braves with similar defensive play in center field for a fraction of Upton’s salary. His home town of Asheville, NC, is only a three hour drive from Atlanta. Being closer to home could benefit him in terms of a boost to morale. His career batting average of .246 is much better than Melvin Upton’s mark of .198 over the last two years. Maybin is only 28 and could be under club control through 2017 just like Upton, so there is potential for him within the organization.
The Braves will likely showcase Quentin in pinch-hit and platoon duties to promote his power upside. He could be a valuable trade chip at the deadline for an AL playoff contender looking to acquire a designated hitter. His last full season in the AL in 2011 with the White Sox produced a line of .254-24-77. Quentin will turn 33 in August and can become a free agent after 2015 if his $3 million buyout is exercised.
As for the prospects, RHP Matt Wisler immediately becomes the Braves’ top pitching prospect with plenty of years of club control ahead of him. He should be in the rotation by 2016, if not sooner. OF Jordan Paroubeck is a 20-year-old former second round pick by the Padres who plays with above average speed and an above average glove. The first round pick the Braves were compensated with also works very nicely with their mentality towards re-building. On a macro level, this trade gives Atlanta much needed financial flexibility for the future.
Craig Kimbrel and Mevlin Upton are both expensive players at their respective positions. Kimbrel makes the San Diego Padres better, whereas Upton does not.
Although this is somewhat speculative, it still plays as an inherent risk. Research shows that pitchers who consistently throw over 95 mph are at an increased risk of requiring Tommy John surgery. Around a 33 percent chance of going under the knife, in fact. Kimbrel’s fastball has averaged 96.6 mph in his career and he has thus far managed to evade the procedure in his baseball lifetime. TJ surgery for Kimbrel would mean the Padres will lose a significant return on their investment given he is set to be a free agent after his aged 30 season in 2018.
The Braves should get some utility out of everyone they acquired in this deal. Their luxury is they know what they are in 2015. Most teams should play second fiddle to the Washington Nationals. The NL East in a few years time should not be as competitive as the NL West is set to be this year.
The Padres’ crisis is exactly that, with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants being no pushovers. We know what the Padres are trying to be in 2015. Will the new roster quickly establish chemistry? If not, they could soon be revealed as pretenders.