Marlins Should Consider Nicolino, Urena for Big League Rotation

I would imagine there are few things that put front offices more at ease than prospects starting the season on a high note. For example, GotC’s Marisa Ingemi pointed out that the Cubs’ company of whiz kids is off to hot start, while the Dodgers’ Corey Seager and the Brewers’ Orlando Arcia are hitting over .500.

If those prospects filled a need when the major league team is in a pinch would be equally reassuring: think Ohio State quarterbacks JT Barret and Cardale Jones.

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That’s exactly the situation in which the Miami Marlins find themselves. Earlier this week, the Marlins recalled catcher J.T. Realmuto and pitcher Jose Urena after catcher Jeff Mathis and pitcher Henderson Alvarez went on the 15-day DL and pitcher David Phelps was put on the paternity list. Realmuto promptly went 2-for-3 and scored two runs Wednesday against the Atlanta Braves and Urena pitched a scoreless inning the previous night in his Major League debut. Both players figure to be a big part of the youth movement that is supposed to make the Marlins the toast of the NL East for the foreseeable future.

What’s curious about calling up Urena, specifically, is that he was promoted instead of one of his fellow pitchers. Justin Nicolino earned the Southern League Pitcher of the Year award in 2014 and has been stellar ever since he’s been drafted, aside from a mediocre half season at Double-A in 2013: Nicolino is a career 2.65 ERA/1.107 WHIP/ 4.42 K/BB pitcher through four Minor League seasons, and continued that success Wednesday with six scoreless innings against the Iowa Cubs. (In case you were wondering, Kris Bryant and Addison Russell went 1-for-5 with two strikeouts against him.)

It’s fairly obvious why Urena was promoted and not Nicolino. Phelps and Alvarez are right handed pitchers, so the Marlins needed a righty to replace them—Urena is a righty, Nicolino is a southpaw—and he’ll likely be sent back to Triple-A once they return. Plus, Urena probably deserved a promotion, too. In his only start this season, he gave up one run in six innings, which is a continuation of the growth he’s shown the past three years:

• 2012 – 3.38 ERA / 3.48 K/BB / .304 BABIP
• 2013 – 3.73 ERA / 3.69 K/BB / .299 BABIP
• 2014 – 3.33 ERA / 4.17 K/BB / .290 BABIP

Urena has never beat himself with walks, which forces hitters to get on base by hitting the ball. The problem for hitters is that he’s also getting harder to hit: Notice his K/BB ratio and BABIP over the past three seasons, which point to a pitcher who is relentless attacking overmatched hitters.

Urena’s success should make the Marlins consider getting Nicolino into the mix as well, especially around mid season. Alvarez should only be out a couple weeks and Jose Fernandez is slated to return sometime in June. Counting arms, that’s eight right-handed starters for five rotation spots; Fernandez, Alvarez, Mat Latos, Tom Koehler, Dan Haren, Jarred Cosart, Phelps and Urena. Adding a lefty would help balance the heavy right-handedness, and a bullpen role would be wasting his talent because the Marlins already have two lefties, Mike Dunn and Brad Hand, in the bullpen. (Hand has been used in a long relief role this season and made 16 starts in 2014, so he’s another good option to be a left-handed starter.)

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If the team isn’t in any serious need of rotation help, the likely scenario is for both Urena and Nicolino to wait in the minors and break into the starting rotation in 2016 when the team lets Latos and Haren leave via free agency. That leaves a potential ’16 starting rotation of Fernandez, Alvarez, Nicolino, Urena and Koehler, all of whom are under team control through at least the 2018 season.

If the back end of the rotation struggles and the Marlins are still in the playoff hunt, however, their services could be called upon sooner than expected. If that does indeed become the case, the Marlins should consider promoting Nicolino before of Urena to add a lefty into the rotation. Another option would be to move Nicolino into Hand’s role and move Hand into the rotation.

It’s probably too much to expect a replacement to help win a playoff race. But then again, a third-stringer led the Buckeyes to the top of the college football world.

Stats and information from Baseball-Reference.com, MiLB.com, and FanGraphs.com