Cards must get used to life without Adam Wainwright
St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright suffered an apparent Achilles injury while running out of the batter’s box during the fifth inning of Saturday night’s 5-3 win over Milwaukee. The Cards placed him on the 15-day DL and he will undergo an MRI on Monday. If the scan reveals a rupture to the tendon, then he will likely not throw another pitch in 2015.
It’s always a devastating blow for a team to lose its ace, even one with substantial starting pitching depth like St. Louis. Wainwright’s first four starts in 2015 have lived up to his usual high standards; in 25 innings he has allowed 23 hits, walked only three batters and maintained a 1.44 ERA. In nine previous big league seasons he was named to three All-Star teams, won two Gold Gloves and finished four times in the top-5 of National League Cy Young voting.
Losing Wainwright for an entire season is not unprecedented for the Cardinals, however. In 2011 Spring Training he tore the UCL in his right elbow, forcing him to have Tommy John surgery. You could say St. Louis managed well enough in his absence, earning a postseason berth as a Wild Card team and making an improbable run to a seven-game World Series victory. They will certainly hope to experience similar fortune this time around.
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The Cards are probably one of a handful of teams built to endure this kind of loss, or at least soften its impact. Though they would lack a true number-one starter without Wainwright, their roster is stacked with several middle-to-front end starting pitchers who can provide plenty of quality innings. Lance Lynn is off to a decent start and figures to round into form as the season continues. Though he’s given up more than a hit per inning at this early stage, his 2.39 FIP is significantly below his 3.63 ERA, suggesting some improved defense and luck could equate to better results. He has also racked up 26 strikeouts in 22.1 innings pitched and has been doling out walks at a slightly lower rate than the past few seasons (2.8 BB/9).
Michael Wacha is another name the Cardinals will count on to step up in their rotation. At only 23 years old, the big right-hander has already given St. Louis fans lots to get excited about in his fledgling career. In 19 starts last season he put up a 3.20 ERA, allowing 95 hits across 107 innings. He’s setting an even better pace in 2015: over 20.1 innings he has a 1.33 ERA, surrendering just 15 hits and three earned runs. His 3.75 FIP is a bit eye-catching and may have some fearing a regression, but at this early stage of the season it’s difficult to tell. Wacha’s youth and potential are undeniable, however, and he figures to only keep improving.
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Another factor is the emergence of Carlos Martinez. Another 23 year old, Martinez has started 2015 in torrid fashion. After beginning the season in the bullpen, the Dominican right-hander has spun off three quality starts in succession. The most impressive came last Friday night against the Brewers when he threw seven scoreless innings, allowing just four hits and striking out eight to seal the win. The team has discussed capping his innings at around 150, however, which could throw a wrench into their late-season stretch run. At any rate, if Martinez performs like this for as long as they keep letting him take the mound, it would be a major boost to the Cardinals’ chances.
St. Louis currently leads the N.L. Central by two games with a 12-5 record. Even without their ace, you would be hard-pressed to argue that they won’t stay competitive throughout the year. Their starting pitchers sport an MLB-best 2.39 ERA, 0.25 better than divisional rival Pittsburgh. Though Wainwright has been a big part of that early season success, other pitchers on the staff have done their part as well. The Cards’ track record of developing young pitchers will also serve them well here. Don’t look for a quick fix in the form of a Cole Hamels blockbuster trade. Triple-A lefty starter Tyler Lyons and long reliever Carlos Villanueva figure to be among the in-house rotation options.
Faced with the possibility of a season without Adam Wainwright, the best thing for the Cardinals to do is take a “next man up” approach. Fortunately for them, the candidates for that “next man” aren’t exactly slouches either.
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