Craig Kimbrel wasn’t only the best closer in baseball during his tenure with the Atlanta Braves, but a fan favorite. When he was shipped off to San Diego the night before the Braves opened the season, Atlanta was not happy. Matt Wisler, the San Diego Padres highly touted pitching prospect and centerpiece of the Kimbrel deal, was expected to be a top end fixture in the Braves rotation in the not so distant future. No pressure there, huh?
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Wisler has gotten off to a rocky start, and it didn’t get much better Wednesday night at Coolray Field. The 22-year old righty had an impressive debut for the Gwinnett Braves, but has since become very hittable and game three of the series against the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders proved no different.
The problem hasn’t been Wisler’s control. Even when he misses, he hasn’t been that far off the mark. The problem is not only is he hittable, but that he is VERY hittable.
Wisler’s first inning wasn’t too shabby. Ben Gamel led off with a scorcher to Jose Peraza that he couldn’t handle… because it was hit hard. He quickly got out of the inning with a infield pop-out, strikeout and a grounder to third. He threw 22 pitches, 13 of which were strikes. That’s not the best ratio in the world, but it’s not terrible.
He made adjustments in the second inning when he threw 18 pitches, 13 of which were strikes. Here is what happened though: the RailRiders scored three runs. The inning started smoothly. Austin Romine sandwiched a big double between a groundout and strikeout. He stood on second with two outs and Wisler seemed cruising to the end of the inning. Then came a Nick Noonan double, a Gamel triple and a Ramon Flores double and the score was 3-0. You’ll notice every hit was an extra base hit. The RailRiders were hitting Wisler and hitting him hard.
The fifth inning was when it went down hill fast. Flores led off with a single that was hit so hard up the middle that Peraza and Elmer Flores didn’t even get to make a move on it. Rob Refsnyder followed with a double that stayed in the ball park by a mere inches. Wisler was rattled and issued a walk to Roller.
Bases were loaded, how did Wisler respond? Tyler Austin came up a drilled a 1-1 pitch foul, but it was crushed so hard that you not only heard it off the bat, but heard it whizzing as it flew down the right field line. Wisler was able to strike out Austin, but Cole Figueroa smoked a double down the right field line. Wisler’s night was done. He finished 4.2 innings, allowing 9 hits and 7 runs to score. 7 of those 9 hits were for extra bases, and a couple of them barely missed leaving the park.
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So, where did Wisler go wrong? He seems to have a four pitch arsenal with each pitch being above average. Over his last three outings that has spanned 17 innings, Wisler has allowed 25 hits, 3 of which have been home runs and nearly all of which have gone for extra bases. Perhaps, Wisler is too predictable in his delivery. Perhaps he tips his pitches.
Something doesn’t add up somewhere. Wisler has shown pretty sound control. His ERA and WHIP troubles last season were accrued to playing in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League, where the ballparks are smaller and he surrendered a BABIP of .317. This year his BABIP is currently .394 and he is only stranding 58 percent of his runners, where as last year he stranded 72 percent. More batters are hitting Wisler, more are getting on base, and nearly 15 percent more are scoring. That spells trouble.
Wisler’s strikeout rate is up, while both his walk and home run rate have improved as well. He is pitching soundly, but he simply can’t miss bats. If the Braves don’t make proper adjustments soon, the Kimbrel deal may be for naught.