MLB Awards Watch: Top 5 NL MVP candidates through April
Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Last year marked the first time since 2011 a pitcher was awarded an MVP when the Tigers’ Justin Verlander won it and the first time a National League pitcher took home the hardware since Bob Gibson of the Cardinals won it back in 1968.
2014 was the 11th time overall a player won both MVP and Cy Young privileges and Clayton Kershaw was the third Dodger to do so after Sandy Koufax in 1963 and Don Newcombe before him in 1956.
Though Kershaw’s season was special, a lot of people take exception to a pitcher winning the award because most of them appear in a fraction of regular games by comparison to position players. It’s not a sure thing, but Kershaw sweeping the major awards podium was likely aided by the injury suffered to Giancarlo Stanton on September 11 when he was struck in the face with a pitch by Mike Fiers.
Stanton appeared to be the favorite at that point, but he subsequently missed the Miami Marlins’ 17 final games after having appeared in every single one to that point. Stanton still led the NL in home runs (37), slugging percentage (.555) and total bases (299).
The sluggers biggest shortcoming was his unavailability for the final stretch of regular season games and the fact his team as a whole was much worse than Kershaw’s Dodgers. The Marlins finished only 77-85, but would have been justifiably worse were it not for Stanton’s contributions all season long. His WAR of 6.5 was the second highest amongst position players in the NL following Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy.
With the month of May still fresh in the calendar, it should be worth noting that the Marlins’ Dee Gordon is the only player who qualifies hitting above .400, with 109 at-bats registered. His power numbers obviously lack, but because after 26 games he is still above the hallowed mark, Gordon deserves honorable mention.
Other honorable mentions: CIN Joey Votto (.330-7-17) and PIT Starling Marte (.264-7-18)
Next: No. 5
5. Justin Upton – .300 BA, 7 HR, 21 RBI, .923 OPS
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While Matt Kemp and Justin Upton have both greatly helped the Friars’ offense in 2015, it is Upton who is having the MVP-caliber season.
Kemp has only one long ball on the season, while Upton is tied for the second most in the NL. He’s only a .275 career hitter, so while someone like a healthy Votto (.311) is a stronger bet to be in the top five of this list come September with his impeccable plate discipline, right now Upton gets the nod.
If the Padres finish in first or manage to grab a Wild Card spot in the ultra-competitive NL West and Upton is still playing at the same level he is now at in September, he will likely be the biggest vehicle driving San Diego’s offensive successes and the key contributor to turning the team around from dead last rankings in runs scored and team batting average in 2014.
Upton is a two-time All-Star who played well for his first six MLB seasons with the Diamondbacks amidst fairly thin lineups. Last years .270-29-102 line gave fans a glimpse of what a little protection in the batting order did for Upton’s confidence and production. The benefits of Freddie Freeman, Evan Gattis and Jason Heyward batting alongside Upton came full circle.
Padres fans now hope that Kemp, Wil Myers and Derek Norris‘ skills can rub off on Upton’s success and the 27-year-old can put together his finest of nine seasons as a professional baseball player yet. Upton’s success could be a Catch 22 scenario for the Padres , though. The better he does in 2015, the more likely he may be to test the free agent market in the offseason and split from San Diego after only one season.
Next: No. 4
4. Paul Goldschmidt – .356 BA, 6 HR, 22 RBI, 1.070 OPS
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It’s unfortunate that 2012 was the only season where Paul Goldschmidt and Upton were teammates. Holding onto Upton might have done wonders for the Diamondbacks’ long-term future outlook, but now they should just be thankful Goldy is theirs through 2018.
Embodying the classic paradox of a great player on a bad team, Goldschmidt hopes the D-backs can find a way to get Yasmany Tomas‘ $68.5 million bat into the lineup on an everyday basis. A.J. Pollock and Mark Trumbo are also doing their part right now to return Arizona to their early 21st century fame, but the pitching is sub-par and so the loss totals could pile up again in 2015, hurting Goldschmidt’s chances of winning his first ever MVP.
Historically, the D-backs’ somewhat underwhelming finish in 2013 at 81-81 did just that. Goldschmidt earned his first of two career All-Star appointments that season and led the NL in home runs (36), RBI (125), SLG (.551), OPS (.952) and total bases (332). He even stole 15 bases that season, an impressive feat for a 6-foot-3, 225 pound first baseman.
Goldschmidt ultimately placed second in NL MVP voting and his WAR of 7.1 was bested by eventual winner Andrew McCutchen‘s 8.1. It just so happened that McCutchen’s incredible season fueled the Pirates first postseason baseball experience for the city of Pittsburgh in over two decades.
Goldschmidt currently ranks second in the NL in OPS, second in RBI and fifth in total bases.
3. Giancarlo Stanton – .260 BA, 6 HR, 24 RBI, .870 OPS
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
If the MVP was handed out every year to whomever’s home runs traveled the farthest combined distances, Stanton would likely be a lock to win every season because of the monster shots he hits at such a high frequency.
While 2014 had its setbacks, Stanton has a constant reminder of that with the face guard he now wears in every plate appearance attached to his helmet. That, and his new $325 million contract are probably the only motivators needed by the 25-year-old to close in on what narrowly evaded him last season.
Placing second in MVP voting a year ago, the right-handed phenom was also an All-Star and Silver Slugger in 2014. Currently, he leads the NL in RBI and is pacing himself nicely with six home runs. His batting average should rise from where it currently sits, as Stanton is a career .270 hitter who hit a personal best .288 last year in seasons where he has recorded 500-plus at-bats.
Dee Gordon has been a revelation as a leadoff hitter in Miami. The return of Christian Yelich from the disabled list should only help Stanton’s overall numbers and the clubs success. In a relatively tight NL East race right now, the return of Jose Fernandez in June to the rotation could also be the push the Marlins need to get into the postseason for the first time since 2003 and thus help Stanton in his bid to claim a first MVP.
Next: No. 2
2. Matt Carpenter – .346 BA, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 1.056 OPS
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
An absolute beast in April, Matt Carpenter came firing out of the gates after a down year in 2014. He finished second in the NL for total bases that month, second in OPS and hit an impressive .372 that included 17 multi-hit games.
At 29, Carpenter appears to be finding his power stroke now as well. Never having hit more than the 11 home runs he hit in 2013, his five right now easily pace him for more than 20. Add to that the fact he has been a doubles and run scoring machine throughout his career and the Galveston, TX, native is a large reason why the Cardinals do so well, year-in-year-out.
In 2013 when Carpenter broke out, he finished fourth in MVP voting while simultaneously leading the NL in runs scored, hits and doubles. His 55 doubles tied for ninth most in MLB history at the time. Through 26 games played in 2013 — the same as Carpenter has this season — he had 10 doubles, so his pace is already on track to best that mark.
Carpenter’s base running skills are well above average and the Cardinals are the fourth best in the NL at scoring runs in 2015. It’s a large reason why they boast baseball’s best record right now at 20-6. There are obviously other players shining for the Cardinals as well, but right now none are brighter than the guy manning the hot corner for them.
Next: No. 1
1. Adrian Gonzalez – .361 BA, 9 HR, 22 RBI, 1.179 OPS
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Adrian Gonzalez had an unbelievable five home runs through his first three games of 2015. While that pace has fallen off some, his overall numbers are still elite. He leads the NL in home runs and total bases.
The Dodgers appear poised to capture a playoff spot in the early going of a new season. Given their stacked roster, it would be no surprise to see a Dodger again win this prestigious award.
From 2006-11, A-Gon averaged 31 home runs per season. A bummed shoulder after that dropped his total down to only 18 in 2012 and then 22 in 2013. It now looks like whatever physical ailments might have been plaguing Gonzalez’s power swing are now a thing of that past.
That’s a dangerous thing for the NL West competition, but also those contending against Gonzalez for a possible MVP. He led the NL in RBI last year with 116 driven in despite hitting less than 30 home runs. His current .742 slugging percentage is off the charts right now, second only the Nelson Cruz‘s .766 over in the AL.
Gonzalez came closest to winning an MVP in 2010, his final season in San Diego. He finished fourth that year in voting. A return to his NL West roots is obviously having a positive impact on his game. Should he win the award in 2015, it could mark the first time in MLB history a Mexican-born player wins the award.