Shelby Miller, current (and future?) ace
Shelby Miller gave baseball fans something to talk about on an otherwise lazy Sunday afternoon. The Atlanta Braves pitcher came within one out of tossing a no-hitter against the Marlins in Miami, before pinch hitter Justin Bour smacked a first-pitch offering back up the middle for his team’s first base hit. The moment after a potential no-hitter is thwarted often deflates fans and pitchers alike and can result in a loss of focus. After giving up a second hit to the following batter, Miller buckled down and secured the final out. If you can’t have a no-hitter, a complete game shutout isn’t a bad alternative.
It was the type of outing beyond even the Braves’ wildest expectations when they received the young right-hander from the Cardinals in the Jason Heyward trade. Miller’s big afternoon was just the latest sterling performance in what has been a remarkable early 2015 campaign. Sunday’s victory moved him to a 5-1 record. His last six outings have all been quality starts and he has not surrendered more than two earned runs in any appearance. Yesterday’s shutout was actually his second in three starts. Over that span he has thrown 25 innings of one-run ball, allowing just eight hits. He hasn’t needed to labor either, exceeding 100 pitches only once so far.
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Exactly how good will Miller be, this season and beyond? ESPN.com’s Christina Kahrl feels that his flirtation with no-hit glory is a sign of true breakout success for the 24-year-old, and it’s hard to argue with her. Miller was on many radars even before this season, so the results we are now witnessing are not entirely unheralded. In 2013, Miller won 15 games for St. Louis to the tune of a 3.06 ERA. The next year saw somewhat of a regression. His walk rate rose, K/9 dropped and the ERA climbed to 3.74. Not a bad number, but enough to give some pause after his third-place finish in Rookie of the Year voting the season prior.
Miller has been striking out more and walking fewer batters this season, always a recipe for success, but the real eye-catching stat is the minuscule amount of hits he is allowing. In 54 innings he has surrendered just 29, good for a 4.8 H/9. That figure is of course boosted by his recent handful of outings, but Miller has always done well limiting hits: he has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched in every season of his career.
At this point, you wouldn’t need to stretch much to label Miller a “future ace.” In fact, he may very well already be one. He has certainly been setting the pace for the rest of the Braves rotation thus far. On a very young staff with only one member over age 30 (Eric Stults is the grizzled veteran at 35), Miller has pitched himself into a leadership role and all the responsibility that entails.
Miller has a relatively simple repertoire, relying almost exclusively on his fastball (two-seam and cut varieties) and curve. Keeping things straightforward can be a powerful tool for a young pitcher. As Kahrl points out, despite all his recent success Miller is still developing: “On some level he’s still in the process of becoming something special, far from a known quantity or a pitcher possessing finished quality.”
Of course, even Miller’s staunchest advocates would admit that he almost surely will not be as good as his 1.33 ERA throughout the remainder of the season. His opponents’ .183 BABIP will be difficult to maintain. His ground ball rate (50.4%) is up significantly from the last couple years, which has helped him limit home runs (0.5 HR/9, down from 1.08 in 2014). Those figures might certainly adjust toward the mean as the year progresses, but with younger developing pitchers it can be challenging to predict.
Regardless, Shelby Miller is pitching like an ace right now, and if recent performances are any indication, his name might one day be a surefire inclusion in debates concerning the game’s top starting pitchers.