There is a beautiful species in this world that unfortunately is becoming endangered. I’m not talking about the sage grouse or the peregrine falcon, although the falcon does bear some similarities to the one I’m about to discuss. You see, as a bird of prey, it relies on its ability to reach speeds in excess of 200 miles an hour to hunt and survive.
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The endangered species I’m talking about is the base stealer, who relies heavily on speed to survive in the majors. Consider: according to Baseball-Reference, in 1987, a MLB game had an average of .85 stolen bases per game. Entering play Thursday, that number was down to .56, the third consecutive year it was under .60. In the number-saturated front offices of today, stolen bases are seen as an unnecessary risk and potentially wasted outs.
That doesn’t mean such an exciting aspect of the game is going to go extinct. The peregrine falcon is making a comeback in places, and players like the Marlins’ Dee Gordon and the Reds’ Billy Hamilton have the youth and speed to filch bags for years to come.
There is another wave of impressive speed demons in the minors. Here are some prospects who are future sack swipers:
Mallex Smith, Atlanta Braves
The centerfielder is a terror on the base paths, as he has stolen 152 bags the past two seasons—he stole 64 in 110 games in 2013 and 88 in 120 games in 2014. Entering play Thursday, Smith had a career 79.4 stolen base success rate—a good stolen base percentage is above 75 percent. So far in 2015, he has 16 stolen bases and has been caught only twice, a very impressive rate. Coupled with impressive offensive numbers that show last season’s offensive strides weren’t a fluke, Smith looks like a top-of-the-order menace in waiting.
Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox
Entering play Thursday, Anderson was tied with Smith for second in the Southern League (Double-A) in stolen bases with 16. Anderson has had modest stolen base numbers the past two seasons—he stole 10 in 15 attempts last season and 24 in 68 games in 2013—but Anderson is turning his athleticism loose in 2015. He’s on pace for 36 stolen bases in 100 games, and his 76.2 percent success rate means he isn’t wasting too many outs.
Jose Peraza, Atlanta Braves
If Peraza and Smith both reach their potential, the Braves could wear out opposing catchers. Peraza is regarded as one of the fastest and most talented players in all the minors, and he has caught the attention of the masses. His combined 124 thefts and 19 triples from 2013-14, career 81.6 percent success rate and career .350 on base percentage mean he’ll have lots of opportunities to swipe bags in the majors.
Roman Quinn, Philadelphia Phillies
Quinn has already surpassed his triple total from last season—he hit three in 2014 and already has five in 43 games in 2015—and is on pace for 45 stolen bases if he matches last season’s 88 games. He’s stolen at least 30 bases in each of his three seasons as a professional baseball player, so you know he loves to run. There is some concern that he will experience significant offensive regression in the coming months as his batting average on balls in play has jumped more than 60 points, but there is evidence the speed will definitely translate.
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Turner has a comparatively modest nine stolen bases in 43 games at Double-A after stealing 23 in 69 games last season. One possible explanation is a Mike-Trout-like shift of focus toward tapping into his power, as he’s already equaled his home run total from last season (five) and is slugging nearly 80 points higher. Turner’s speed is undeniable however, as he stole 26 bases in 30 attempts at North Carolina State in 2014.
I didn’t even mention other phenomenal athletes like GotC Top-50 prospects Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, or other threats like Alen Hanson and Ketel Marte. All of them have the potential to pilfer at least 20 bases if you let them fly.
All stats from MiLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com