James Shields’ deceptive 6-0 start in San Diego
James Shields took the mound at home last night against the Pirates with the opportunity to do something he has never done in his ten-year major league career: begin a season with a 7-0 record. He hurled six solid innings in a no-decision, so he will have to settle with remaining at 6-0 for now. It seems things are going quite well for Shields since signing with the San Diego Padres this past offseason.
While his current 3.69 ERA is certainly respectable, a closer look at Shields’ numbers reveals a few troubling trends which could cause the former All-Star some serious trouble down the line. Namely, the way in which balls are flying off opposing hitters’ bats. Shields has surrendered an MLB-most 15 home runs in 68.1 innings of work. That equates to a swollen 2.0 HR/9 rate, noticeably higher than his previous career-high of 1.5 in 2010.
Shields has allowed at least one homer in nine of his eleven starts this year, and three of those outings have been multi-HR affairs. His worst showing came on May 8 when he served up four long balls in six innings to the Diamondbacks in Arizona (a game he still won, by the way). His previous start wasn’t much better, as he gave up three home runs at home to the Rockies in 5.1 frames.
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The right-hander currently sports an alarming 22.4% HR/FB rate. Traditionally more of a ground ball pitcher, Shields is posting his highest fly ball percentage since 2007. And he’s getting burned by those fly balls much more than usual. He’s actually fortunate that things haven’t been worse for him in 2015. Shields has been quite effective at stranding base runners, as evidenced by his 84.9% left-on-base percentage. If more of those runners start coming around to score, things will take a very ill turn for Shields.
“Big Game” James’ best weapon, however, has helped him escape jams and offset his various weaknesses: the strikeout. Shields has fanned an NL-leading 88 batters, good for an electrifying 11.6 K/9 rate. He has failed to strike out fewer than a batter per inning just once this year, and he has reached double-digit K-totals twice (12 and 11 Ks on April 27 and May 19, respectively).
Mowing down hitters at a solid clip is not a new skill for Shields, but he is certainly setting an unprecedented pace through the first two months of 2015. His strikeout rates had declined over his previous two seasons in Kansas City, sinking from 8.8 K/9 in his last year with the Rays to 7.7 and then 7.1 in 2014. Though this may indeed end up as a rebound season for him in that regard, it’s probably a safe bet that he won’t be striking out almost 12 hitters per nine throughout the entire campaign.
If Shields has made an adjustment in his approach this season, it has been an increased use of his knuckle-curveball. He’s been throwing it nearly as often as his fastball. Since introducing the knuckle-curve to his arsenal a couple years ago (as per Fangraphs’ PitchFx), Shields has increasingly phased it into his attack. It has proved a rather effective pitch for him this year, as opponents are batting .222 against it.
James Shields has always been somewhat of a conundrum to baseball fans during his career. He has the general reputation of an “ace” despite never really showing the consistent dominance expected of those with that distinction. His best season came in 2011 when he put up a 2.82 ERA and MLB-leading 11 complete games. Other than that, he’s been very good at times, if not exactly spectacular.
The 2015 season so far has been a microcosm of Shields’ overall track record. He might pass the initial eye test, but a deeper inspection exposes a pitcher who is not quite the force that some have made him out to be. His six victories place him fourth among National League pitchers at the moment, but he has needed some considerable factors to bend in his favor to make it happen. Shields’ new Padres teammates have shown him plenty of support, backing him with an average of 6.11 runs per start. While San Diego boasts one of the NL’s better offenses, times likely won’t remain so prosperous for Shields going forward.
It remains to be seen whether Shields will continue to do enough to mitigate the harm inflicted by the home runs he allows. Pitching half his games in spacious Petco Park will provide him as good an opportunity as anywhere to get that tendency under control. Though the Padres won’t complain about the 6-0 record, they will hope Shields steps it up a notch and really begins to lead their rotation the way they envisioned he would when inking him to a four-year deal.