Charlie Blackmon proving last year was a mirage
By Tim Haberin
Colorado Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon was one of the surprise breakout players of 2014. He slugged his way to a very strong first half, hitting .305/.349/.479 with 14 home runs and 52 RBI by the midseason break. Those numbers were more than sufficient to earn him a spot on the National League All-Star squad. Blackmon’s production lagged in the second half, but he still finished the year in respectable fashion with a .288 average, 19 homers and 72 RBI.
Heading into the 2015 campaign, many wondered exactly which Blackmon would present himself. Was the first half of 2014 a fluke, or would the 28-year-old regain form after a slow post-All Star period? Thus far Blackmon is lending more and more credibility to the former theory.
Through 47 games in the current season, Blackmon’s batting average has sagged to .254. He has clubbed seven homers and driven in 19 runs, well off the impressive pace he was setting this time last year. Blackmon’s fortunes have been especially poor over the past few weeks. He actually began the season rather promisingly; he was batting .320 on May 6. Since then he has taken a steep nosedive. Across his last 23 games he is hitting a paltry .169 with just two home runs and 5 RBI.
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Blackmon has even started to see his playing time ebb away amid this protracted slump. The Rockies chose to keep him on the bench against Cole Hamels last Friday. It’s hard to argue with that decision, as Blackmon is hitting a meager .154/.228/.269 against lefties. If his struggles continue, it’s conceivable he might have to settle for more platooning going forward. Albeit in only 32 at-bats, utility outfielder Brandon Barnes is hitting .344 and Colorado may look to give him additional opportunities.
As is the case with many players who put on a Rockies uniform, Blackmon really took advantage of playing his home games at Coors Field last year. His 2014 home/away splits were like night and day. In Colorado he hit .331/.391/.524 with 13 homers and 48 RBI. Away from it he managed only a .241/.269/.348 slash line, six home runs and 24 RBI. That disparity contributed to much of the skepticism that followed Blackmon into this season.
The problem for Blackmon this year, however, is that he has struggled to hit anywhere. He is actually performing better away from home (.814 OPS as a visitor), but neither stat line is particularly pretty (.722 OPS at home).
Blackmon has been significantly more judicious at the plate this year, which could either be part of his problem or a cause for future optimism. He is swinging at 40.5% of pitches this season, down from 52.7% last year. He is also chasing less pitches outside of the strike zone. He swung at 39.0% of pitches outside the zone last year, but is offering at only 25.7% of those this season. He was rather successful at chasing pitches in 2014, making contact with over 75% of the pitches outside the zone at which he swung.
Some hitters are simply better suited to a more reckless approach, and one could certainly make the argument that Blackmon’s increased tentativeness does not seem to be helping him much. Despite swinging less, he is actually striking out at a higher rate than he did last season. Aggressiveness can be a double-edged sword, especially for a player mired in a considerable slump.
For now, Blackmon should focus on building off the things he is doing well. He’s drawing more walks than he did in 2014 (7.8% BB rate, up from 4.8%). He is also utilizing his speed more as the Rockies’ leadoff hitter. He has stolen ten bases in 14 attempts, on track to surpass last year’s total of 28.
It remains to be seen whether Blackmon can recover some of the success he enjoyed in the first half of 2014. With his 29th birthday a month away, the book is far from shut on him. But with each passing day, those All-Star months are looking more and more like an overachievement than an indication of Blackmon’s true ceiling as a ballplayer.