MLB Awards Watch: Top 5 NL MVP candidates through May
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Four weeks ago, the top list of contenders for an MLB awards watch in the National League’s MVP race looked like this. Quite a bit has changed with some player’s having had spectacular May’s.
Giancarlo Stanton‘s power was still evident last month. He clubbed nine home runs and drove in 23, but he hit only .185 in May and got on-base at a rate consistently lower than .300. Of course, his Miami Marlins going 10-19 in the month and firing yet another manager probably did not do much for clubhouse serenity, but Stanton is tied for the Major League lead in whiffs (70) at the dish with notorious names like Chris Davis and Chris Carter who place little emphasis on contact hitting for average.
But then again, the two Chris’s don’t have a propensity to leave audiences in awe regularly with mammoth moon shots like the one Stanton hit at Dodger Stadium and afterwards, this one at Marlins Park that is currently the second farthest home run hit all season by true distance according to the ESPN home run tracker. While Stanton’s showmanship is much appreciated by the fans, he’s going to need to raise his batting average (.228) up some. He is a full 39 points below his career mark. Cutting back on the strikeouts should also be a priority.
Another young player making a veteran-like impact this year deserving honorable mention is Joc Pederson. The Los Angeles Dodgers’ phenom must have fans excited. In his rookie season, he ranks inside the top 10 in NL in runs (29), home runs (14), walks (33) and OPS (.931). The center fielder has a WAR of 2.0 after only 50 games and should definitely be in the running for NL ROY honors. In terms of brute power, Pederson’s average true distance on his 14 homers have traveled farther than Stanton’s with a mark of 422 feet.
Other position player’s who are in the running but are currently being held back some by their team’s lack of overall success would have to be Rockies 3B Nolan Arenado (.289-13-37) and Reds 3B Todd Frazier (.287-16-31).
Next: Number 5
5. 1B Anthony Rizzo – .316 BA, 9 HR, 30 RBI, 2.7 WAR
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
With his Chicago Cubs (27-22) currently sitting a comfortable 5.0 games back of the Cardinals in the NL Central and only 0.5 games back of occupying a Wild Card spot, there has to be whispers of postseason play around Wrigley Field these days. First baseman Anthony Rizzo is a large reason behind these speculated whispers.
His plate discipline is amongst some of the best in the league. His SO% is only at 11.4 percent, lower than his walk percentage of 12.3. Rizzo is third in the NL with an OBP of .438 and the big guy even has nine stolen bases on the year, already far surpassing his former personal best mark of six set back in 2013.
Rizzo also plays excellent defense at first base for the Cubbies, which is often an overlooked aspect of the game for players at his position. The 25-year-old will look to keep Chicago in contention in the coming months. With the help of rookies Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and a few other veterans on offense, the Cubs have some work to do. But nothing about Rizzo’s work ethic and emergence as a legitimate superstar in MLB should suggest he’s not capable of carrying this team through the days of summer ahead.
Next: Number 4
4. RF Justin Upton – .302 BA, 12 HR, 37 RBI, 2.0 WAR
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Justin Upton was on this list a month ago. Thanks to a strong May (.343-6-23) and the San Diego Padres playing far better baseball than they were at the same time last year, Upton still deserves consideration. He is the only player in the NL right now to have double digit home runs and stolen bases. While a 40-40 season is a stretch (Upton’s career high for HRs in a season is 31 and SBs is 21), he’s flashing real 30-30 potential.
What’s more, Upton is only 27 and is hitting over .300 despite moving to a pitcher’s park in Petco for his home games. He is actually finding far more success playing in San Diego than he is on the road. His home splits have produced a .356 batting average with nine home runs and 23 RBI in in 28 games. On the road, Upton is hitting only .242 with three home runs and 14 RBI in 24 games. Upton has historically been much better at home than on the road, but there’s still room for improvement here.
Upton also has a tendency to cool down in the second half of campaigns, so that may be something to watch closely. If the Padres hope to be in contention come September, they will need Upton to power up in July and August, with a healthy Wil Myers hitting back in front of him in the lineup surely helping his cause.
Next: Number 3
3. 1B Adrian Gonzalez – .339 BA, 10 HR, 35 RBI, 2.6 WAR
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Sure, Adrian Gonzalez hit five home runs in his first three games, setting fans up for a letdown once he came back down to earth — and he has, hitting only five additional homers in his last 46 contests — but he’s still doing special things for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Despite Clayton Kershaw not being dialed in like he was last season yet and injuries to Carl Crawford and Yasiel Puig causing the two to miss substantial time so far in the outfield, the Dodgers still find themselves in first place in the NL West. The Giants are creeping up on them, so the hope is that an improving Kershaw and a healthy outfield can help separate them from the pack.
Gonzalez ranks top 10 in the NL for home runs, RBI, batting average and OPS. He’s looking a lot like his former self from 2011 with the Boston Red Sox. That season, Gonzalez finished seventh in AL MVP voting and cleaned up all-around during awards season with a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger and his last All-Star appearance.
After a three year hiatus from the Midsummer Classic, A-Gon looks like he has a strong chance to appear at the 2015 festivities once again, this time at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH.
Next: Number 2
2. Paul Goldschmidt – .351 BA, 15 HR, 43 RBI, 3.4 WAR
Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Like Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt is a hulking mass of a first baseman who has the ability to swipe bases. He also has the ability to do everything else on a baseball field at an elite level.
Mired mildly by Arizona’s struggles, it’s almost comical to imagine how bad the D-backs would be if Goldy was not on their roster. In 2013 when he played in 160 games, Arizona won 81 games that same season. Last year, Goldschmidt played in only 109 games due to injury. Coincidentally, the D-backs only won 64 games that season.
After that 2013 season, Goldy was the runner-up to Andrew McCutchen for this award. Only 27, an MVP award seems inevitable in his future. He has the third highest WAR in the league right now behind only Dallas Keuchel and the No. 1 person on this list.
Even if Arizona does not keep things close in the NL West this year, the BBWAA can’t overlook Goldschmidt. He is probably the most exciting player on the least exciting franchise in Major League Baseball.
Next: Number 1
1. RF Bryce Harper – .325 BA, 18 HR, 43 RBI, 4.2 WAR
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Like him or not, the Bryce Harper show has officially arrived. The 22-year-old is the NL yin to the AL’s yang in Mike Trout. Harper is fully breaking out and showing the poise of veteran hitter at the dish. Astonishingly enough, he’s not far off from that status despite his age.
The superstar arrived in the big leagues at age 19 back in 2012. Already in his fourth full year of service, he is yet to be hindered by any injuries in 2015. His Nats are also now leading the NL East after a slow start in April. Harper’s 13 home runs in May and 28 RBI led the Majors and it’s a large reason why his club went 18-9 last month.
On a macro level, Harper leads the NL in free passes, runs, home runs, OBP, SLG, and OPS. He is the only player in the league with a WAR of over 4.0, which currently has him on pace to surpass the 12.0 mark, putting him in the same echelon as none other than Babe Ruth. Another left-handed hitter just like Ruth, it’s scary to think about how good Harper can become once he has been around the game for a decade or so and will still only then be entering his proverbial prime years for most baseball players in their late 20s and early 30s.
Harper flashed his clutch potential last postseason, as well. The playoffs are a different game, but a young and relatively inexperienced Harper still managed to hit .294 with three home runs in the 2014 postseason after playing only four games. If he can capture an MVP and a World Series ring in 2015, he will be the first player to do so since Giants catcher Buster Posey accomplished the feat in 2012.