The MLB Draft is a mere few days away. Teams will be making some big decisions on Monday, June 8th for the direction their franchises will head. It is a fun and exciting time.
More from MLB Draft
- Rewriting the MLB rules: Making a case for trading draft picks
- MLB draft preview: 3 teams that could draft Jacob Wilson
- Texas Rangers: Chris Young working the draft to get top arms
- Arizona Diamondbacks: Recapping 2022’s first-day draft picks
- Baseball diversity highlights early stages of 2022 MLB Draft
There is a lot of uncertainty in this year’s MLB Draft. Arguably the two best arms in the draft — last year’s first overall pick Brady Aiken and Duke’s Michael Matuella — are both on the shelf with Tommy John surgery. They are sure to be drafted, but instead of being at the top of the pack, they will probably fall to the end of the first round.
A lot of focus has been on the Houston Astro’s first two picks. They have the No. 2 pick (as compensation for Aiken not signing) and the No. 5 pick. The Astros have bided their time through years of mediocracy, building a contender through the draft. It has started to pay off this season, as they have an American League best record 34-22. It’s hard to question what the Astros have done or will do in the MLB Draft.
Yet, I do. It’s not that the Astros could go wrong with the selections they have early on. They will be getting two of the top rated talents in the nation. The question is, do the Astros go with the best player available, or do they address needs?
Let me explain.
Next: The Shortstops
Mar 8, 2015; Lakeland, FL, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa (76) at bat against the Detroit Tigers at a spring training baseball game at Joker Marchant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Three of the top rated players in this years MLB Draft are shortstops. Many experts saw the Arizona Diamondbacks grabbing either high schooler Brendan Rodgers or Vanderbilt’s Dansby Swanson at No. 1 and the Astros grabbing which ever one is there at their pick at No. 2 in the MLB Draft.
The tides have turned a bit. The Diamondbacks are in desperate need of an elite catching prospect in the system, and lo and behold, Tyler Stephenson — the No. 18 rated draft prospect in the nation — may become the first overall pick. That gives the Astros the hard decision of deciding between the best two draft prospects in the nation.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
Baseball America has them snagging Swanson, USA Today has them snagging Rodgers and MLB.com has them taking No. 4 prospect, LSU shortstop Alex Bregman. It just doesn’t make sense to me.
.327/.400/.596, 10 home runs and 41 RBI. That’s 20-year old Carlos Correa’s 2015 Minor League stat line over two levels. There is no doubting that Correa is the future at shortstop, and that future is most likely to start in the next few weeks as soon as the Super 2 deadline passes. Why would the Astros need depth at shortstop when Correa has over a decade of excitement to offer?
The Astros snagged Mark Appel two years ago who has not quite yet reached the level they would have liked him to, but he is progressing. Aiken spurned them last year. Many feel that the Astros have become disenchanted with taking a pitcher so early. But, what we are learning in Major League Baseball is that you can never have too much pitching.
So who do they take?
Next: Dillon Tate
Jun 1, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez (31) pitches to Houston Astros third baseman Luis Valbuena (18) during the fifth inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Dillon Tate, ranked No. 5, UC Santa Barbara
There is a lot of talk about Tate and a future with the Astros. It is the right move. The 21-year old right hander somewhat slowed down towards the end of the season, but was dominant early on. That’s largely in part due to a transition from bullpen arm to full time starter. Tate succeeded with flying colors and is now atop the draft board. At 21, he can be fast tracked to the big leagues within a couple of years.
More from MLB Draft
- Rewriting the MLB rules: Making a case for trading draft picks
- MLB draft preview: 3 teams that could draft Jacob Wilson
- Texas Rangers: Chris Young working the draft to get top arms
- Arizona Diamondbacks: Recapping 2022’s first-day draft picks
- Baseball diversity highlights early stages of 2022 MLB Draft
Tate already possesses a fastball that tops out at 98 miles per hour, but steadily hits in the low 90s. MLB Pipeline grades it out as a 70. His secondary pitch is a slider, which grades out at 65. It hits in the upper 80s. That’s two pitches that grade out as Major League ready.
His changeup (55) and curveball (45) leave a little to be desired, but we aren’t talking about drafting Tate and having him enter the rotation the next day. At 6 foot 2 and 185 pounds, Tate is remarkably durable, missing only one start the past season.
Tate has two advanced pitches that make him very tantalizing early on in the MLB Draft. Should the Astros pass on him at No. 2, they may still have a shot at him at No. 5. There is no way Tate makes it out of the Top 10.
Tate is considered on of the “Big Three” players in this draft and with Correa ready to take the helms at shortstop, the Astros could be foolish to pass up such a Major League ready arm. The improvements he made in one season in the rotation in college, despite the end of the year fade, is more than promising enough to take a chance on him.
Next: Tyler Jay
Mar 6, 2015; Jupiter, FL, USA; Houston Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow (right) laughs with television analyst Peter Gammons (center) and Astros manager A.J. Hinch (left) prior to a spring training baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Tyler Jay, ranked No. 9, Illinois
People don’t just love young pitching, they love young left handed pitching. Jay, the 21-year old southpaw, certainly fits the build. Jay isn’t huge — 6 foot 1, 175 pounds — but his fastball packs a punch, and he has the tools to succeed.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
Jay is a reliever and it is always a question mark taking a reliever so high in the MLB Draft, especially since his stature doesn’t necessarily translate to a future starter role. Still, Jay is a tough left hander, and if the Astros want to make him a project, he has the talent to at least attempt a conversion to starter. If not, Jay could get to the big league very quickly as a left hander specialist a la Jacob Lindgren or Brandon Finnegan.
Jay is unquestionably the best left hander in this year’s draft, and that makes him worth consideration alone. He doesn’t grade out as high as Tate, but he still has some nice weapons. He has a four-pitch arsenal, and what is very alluring is that he grades out with the best control (60) of any pitcher in the Top 15 ranked MLB draft prospects.
The lefty’s fastball isn’t over powering, but graders out at a 65. He consistently hits the mid-90s, whether on several days rest or in back to back appearances. He tops out, like Tate, at 98 miles per hour. He has a superb slider, even though he seems to rely on his curve more often as his secondary go-to pitch. His changeup is his worst pitch, but MLB Pipeline seems to feel it has enough life and shows promising signs of developing into a Major League change.
Whether the Astros select him as a reliever or a starter, Jay can help the future pitching staff in Houston.
Next: Carson Fulmer
Jun 25, 2014; Omaha, NE, USA; The Vanderbilt Commodores celebrate after defeating the Virginia Cavaliers in game three of the College World Series Finals at TD Ameritrade Park Omaha. Vanderbilt defeated Virginia 3-2 to win the College World Series. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports
Carson Fulmer, ranked No. 3, Vanderbilt
Fulmer is smaller for a pitcher, standing at 5 foot 11 and 195 pounds, but he still packs a punch. He made the conversion from closer to starter in 2015. His rise to success was remarkable.
There is always question marks surrounding the switch from closer to starter. How will they handle more innings per outing? How will they look a second time through the lineup? Fulmer pretty much silenced any concerns when he didn’t allow a single run to cross over his first 29 2/3 innings as a Commodore starter. 2015 was no different as Fulmer captured the SEC Pitcher of the Year Award.
The 21-year old righty has a solid three pitch arsenal which isn’t far from Major League ready. His fastball, which grades out at a 70, hits between 93 and 97 miles per hour. His curveball, which grades out at 60, is what MLB Pipeline refers to as a “power breaking ball” and his changeup, which grades at a 50, is useful.
Still, at Fulmer’s small stature, the question remains on how well he will hold up as a starter in the big leagues. Brandon Finnegan on the Royals has been suffering with finding his identity since joining the big league team last year, and Fulmer could see the same back and forth start to his career. With 3 effective pitches and the moxie to succeed — he pitched Vanderbilt to their first ever College World Series title in their program’s history — Fulmer won’t make it past the Astros second pick. The question is whether the Astros will use one of their two on him.
All pitching grades courtesy of MLBPipeline.com.