2011 MLB Draft Re-visited: Cole, Fernandez or Gray?

14th overall: Jose Fernandez – MIA

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Fernandez came relatively out of the blue in 2013 as a rookie. At 20, he went 12-6 across 28 starts for the Marlins and posted a minuscule 2.19 ERA, a 2.73 FIP and a strong K/9 of 9.7.

Then at 21, he was mowing the competition down at an even more impressive pace before succumbing to a torn UCL. Before going down, Fernandez had a 2.44 ERA through eight outings. He was lights out with a 12.2 K/9 and a remarkable K:BB ratio of 5.38. It all seemed to good to be true, like a second coming of Dwight Gooden nearly three decades later, destined to with a ROY and Cy Young in his first to seasons.

The reconstructive Tommy John surgery leaves many questions, but all is not lost. Many pitcher’s after undergoing the procedure have gone on to have long, fruitful careers from the mound. John himself is a shining example. He had what was then a risqué procedure in 1974 and made three All-Star games afterwards, pitching for 14 more seasons and logging over 2500 IP with a 3.66 ERA until he was aged 46.

Fernandez has age on his side, as Cole and Gray were both drafted out of college. He will be only in his age 23 season come 2016, assuming no setbacks befall him until then. He may have to alter his mechanics and develop another pitch in order to decrease the number of times he throws his fastball and thus alleviate some stress from his right elbow.

Set to make his 2015 debut sometime before the All-Star Game, Fernandez’s fastball has been clocked as high as 98 mph in bullpen sessions and rehab starts this year. Once the rust is dusted off, if he’s anywhere near as productive as the Mets’ Matt Harvey has been so far post-TJ surgery, the Marlins should be happy. Fernandez has a WAR of 7.4 in only 36 career starts.

Next: Sonny Gray