Chris Johnson could be slumping his way off the Braves
By Tim Haberin
Atlanta Braves third baseman Chris Johnson likely imagined himself performing better in the first season of the three-year contract extension he signed in May 2014. The Braves presumably share that sentiment. A hand fracture forced Johnson onto the disabled list at the end of April, limiting him to 29 games thus far on the year. He has been swinging a very lackluster bat, slashing .233/.288/.329 with just a single home run and seven RBI. Since returning from the DL on May 27, he is batting a paltry .167.
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Those numbers are a far cry from the breakout campaign Johnson put together in 2013, his first in Atlanta after coming over in the Justin Upton deal. He posted a .321/.358/.457 batting line while smacking 12 homers and driving in 68 runs. Johnson was a surprise contender for the National League batting title, ultimately finishing second behind Michael Cuddyer (.331 BA). That kind of production excited the Braves enough to sign him to a three-year, $23.5 million extension early in the following season.
2014 proved to be a sobering dose of reality for both player and club, however, as Johnson decidedly fell back down to earth. Though his ten homers and 58 RBI were not too far off the previous year’s pace, his slash line sagged to a much less impressive .263/.292/.361.
Johnson’s struggles in his second year with the Braves were due in part to declining discipline at the plate. According to Fangraphs, he swung at 44.3% of pitches outside the strike zone in 2014, a nearly 5% increase from the season prior. Naturally, this more aggressive approach translated into more strikeouts. Johnson’s strikeout rate jumped from 21.2% to 26.0% between his first two seasons in a Braves uniform. And that tendency appears to be holding, as Johnson has been striking out 27.5% of the time so far in 2015.
Unsurprisingly, Johnson’s ineffectiveness has cut into his playing time as well. Atlanta has been giving the recently acquired Alberto Callaspo and Juan Uribe time at third base in favor of Johnson, and for good reason. Uribe has swung the bat exceptionally well since his swap from the Dodgers, hitting .338 in 21 games. Add utility man Kelly Johnson to the mix (.269 BA, 6 HR, 21 RBI) and things are looking a bit crowded.
CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported today that the Braves have attempted to address the situation by shopping Johnson on the trade market:
"“Atlanta has tried to trade third baseman Chris Johnson, even offering to substantially pay down his contract. Johnson is a solid player, but extending at $23.5 million over three years after acquiring him in the Justin Upton trade was a mistake.”"
While the money might not be too great an issue if the Braves take on the lion’s share, teams probably aren’t lining up for what seems to be a declining player with two and a half years still on the books. Set to turn 31 at the end of the season, it’s increasingly difficult to see a big turnaround in Johnson’s future. Last year’s numbers might be a best-case scenario for him moving forward.
Johnson can play both corner infield spots, which might give him some added appeal to potential suitors. He has also been quite durable throughout his career; this season’s DL stint was his first since 2010. Any team interested in dealing for him, however, will probably hope that a change of scenery in the right situation will get Johnson back on track.
The Giants were seeking third base help during the offseason after Pablo Sandoval‘s departure, and though Matt Duffy has done a good job since taking over the role, San Francisco might view Johnson as an upgrade on the bench over Casey McGehee (.207 BA).
An AL team might be persuaded to take a flyer on Johnson since they could stick him at DH if needed. Detroit third basemen are posting a meager .609 OPS, worst among MLB teams. With the Tigers starting to falter a bit in both the AL Central and Wild Card races, perhaps they would give Johnson a try in place of Nick Castellanos (.221 BA).
In any case, the Braves likely have a tough sell in front of them. With the trade deadline still over a month away, it remains to be seen how actively they try to make a deal happen.