Chicago Cubs’ Epstein went for familiar over unknown with Lester

If the first year of Jon Lester‘s and Max Scherzer‘s mega-deals are a sign of things to come, it looks as though patience really may be a virtue. The Chicago Cubs were eager to add an ace to their rotation, while the Washington Nationals were content with waiting for the market to further deteriorate and at the same time become less diversified.

Theo Epstein made a point of welcoming Lester to the Cubs — a player he had a relationship with from 2006-2011 in Boston — for six years and $155 million. Lester will make an average of $25.83 million per season. Though his contract is structured quite differently than Scherzer’s, the Nationals will get the former Cy Young winner for an additional year and an average of $30 million per year. The commitment is therefore rather negligible when one views it as less than a $5 million difference for an ace quality pitcher.

More from Call to the Pen

• Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
• Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
• Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
• Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
• 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals

Right now, Scherzer is the only one pitching like an ace. Lester has the second highest ERA of anyone in the Cubs’ rotation at 3.80 and is third in wins with only four. His WAR of 0.7 ranks him 10th on the club. Meanwhile Scherzer, coming off perhaps two of the most dominant consecutive starts in the history of MLB, is a bonafide Cy Young candidate chasing a pitching triple crown in the National League and is second only to former wunderkind Bryce Harper on the Nats with 4.6 WAR.

Epstein knew what to expect from Lester both as a player and as a figure in the clubhouse. The fact he is a southpaw might also have further fueled the fire to sign him. Maybe Epstein wanted or thought he was getting his own version of Clayton Kershaw in Lester, even though the Cubs already had a selection of left-handed arms capable of starting in the rotation. Lefties Tsuyoshi Wada and Travis Wood both projected as being able to hold down rotation spots in spring training. Both have started seven games, with Wood working out of the bullpen as of late.

One could ponder how heavily Epstein took weight in the opinions and assessments of his scouts when it came to signing Lester versus Scherzer. The former gets by primarily with his cutter as a secondary pitch, while the latter uses a slider most often to complement his four-seamer. A move to the National League has resulted in great things for Scherzer, but not so much for Lester. Outside his own powers of control, the only gripe Lester could have is that Scherzer’s 4.5 runs per nine inning of support trumps his 3.28.

Scherzer is on another level this season. He has walked only 14 batters through 102.1 innings and his K:BB ratio of 8.79 is beyond comparison. It far and away leads the league, as does his BAA (.181), FIP (1.96), WHIP (0.80) and H/9 (5.98).

More from Chicago Cubs

• Stock Up, Stock Down: Braves, Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox
• Chicago Cubs face a conundrum in 2024 when it comes to Cody Bellinger
• Stock Up, Stock Down: Two teams rising, two falling post-trade deadline
• Chicago Cubs: The 4 players who are on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
• Stock Up, Stock Down: MLB trade deadline winners and losers

Lester has been just okay. It was apparent in the offseason that Scherzer headlined the list of desirable free agent pitchers to sign, followed by Lester and James Shields in most instances. If Cubs fans look at it this way, from their perspectives, it would seem like Epstein settled for second best. That’s not the attitude a front office should be taking on when they are intent on ending a World Series drought over a century in the making.

Lester does have a better postseason track record than Scherzer, though last years Wild Card game outing for him with the Oakland Athletics may have signaled a change in trends. The Chicago Cubs currently reside in a wild card playoff spot. But Scherzer instead of Lester could have been the difference between competing with St. Louis in the NL Central and settling for a wild card race.

If the Cubbies make the postseason and end up facing the Nationals at any point, a Lester versus Scherzer story line will surely highlight that series. Theo Epstein can only hope Lester neutralizes Scherzer’s winning ways. In their careers, the two aces have faced each other four total times: once in 2013, twice in 2014 and once so far in 2015. Max Scherzer is 3-1 in head to head match-ups versus Jon Lester.

Next: No perfect game, but Scherzer has been pretty perfect for Nats