MLB Awards: Top 5 AL Cy Young candidates through June
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
While Felix Hernandez has been pretty stout again in 2015 and still has his legions of admirers that will be cheering him to potentially his American League leading 11th win when the Mariners face the Athletics on America’s birthday, June was not kind to the King.
Hernandez entered the month with an ERA of 2.63 and will start July being north of 3.00. He went 2-3 in June, which included the shortest outing of his career on June 12 versus the Astros when he recorded only a single out while allowing two home runs and eight earned runs.
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Felix’s 5.51 ERA was the second worst of any starter in the Mariners’ rotation last month ahead of only Roenis Elias‘ 6.11. If he stays healthy, a strong second half could propel Hernandez back into contention for his second Cy Young.
As it stands now, June was a setback and overall, he just has not been as dominant as he was in 2014. Not only was there the shortest career outing, but Hernandez has not pitched a double digit strikeout game since April 18. At this time last year, he had four starts with 10-plus punch outs and 37 more in total.
First providing May’s edition as a reference, here are the top five AL Cy Young contenders through the first three months of the MLB season.
Next: Number 5
5. David Price – 16 GS, 7-2, 2.62 ERA, 100 K, 2.1 WAR
Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports
David Price has had hotter stretches in his professional career since coming over to the AL Central’s Detroit Tigers. Though he is still one of the finer heads of a rotation in the American League, the southpaw was left off the All-Star squad last season while leading the league in first half strikeouts with 164. Overall, he ended up topping Hernandez and Corey Kluber by leading MLB with 271 whiffs. It was the third highest total of the 2000’s in the AL since Yu Darvish‘s 277 in 2013 and Pedro Martinez‘s 284 in 2000.
Price is off that same pace some in 2015, ranking 15th with 100 through the month of June. With a very healthy 2.87 FIP and a BB/9 exactly where it was last season at 1.7, the Tigers’ ace can be expected to have a strong second half. Detroit is caught amidst a brutally competitive AL Central division this year. Price is no stranger to being able to shoulder the load during a stretch run as he did during his days in Tampa.
Conversely, if the Tigers have a terrible July and fall further back in the standings from the Royals and Twins in the division, the club could sell high on Price and trade him to a contender for a rather healthy bounty. This could make for an interesting development. The 29-year-old was awarded a record $19.75 million salary through arbitration and will become a free agent before the 2016 season.
Next: Number 4
4. Chris Sale – 15 GS, 6-4, 2.87, 141, 2.9 WAR
Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
In spite of playing on a greatly underachieving White Sox team, Chris Sale is soaring like his nickname the Condor would suggest him being capable of.though it’s probably more of a reference to his ridiculous wingspan, the velocity and movement that wingspan affords him is exactly why Sale leads all MLB starters in strikeout percentage at 34.6.
Sale’s 2.17 ERA in 2014 was considerably lower than defending Cy Young pitcher Corey Kluber‘s 2.44 was, but Sale missed most of May and only started 26 games. Even still, he finished third in the American League amongst starters with a 6.6 WAR and placed inside the top 10 of MLB for punch outs.
A 32 start season certainly seems plausible for the Condor in 2015. If he can stay healthy and on a roll, the only thing standing in the way of Sale winning this award over anyone else might be a debate about overall team success. It’s hard to look past his eight consecutive games recording 10 or more strikeouts as well. He’s in good Cy company with that statistic too, joining only Pedro el Grande as two pitchers to have tortured opposing offenses to that extent throughout history.
Next: Number 3
3. Sonny Gray – 16 GS, 9-3, 2.09, 97, 3.9 WAR
Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Oakland Athletics fans’ hearts must have skipped a beat when Sonny Gray was scratched from his last start due to a non-baseball related ailment. Discharged from the hospital on Wednesday after a nasty bout with the stomach flu, he should be considered on track to make his next scheduled start July 5.
Only 25 and with tons of club control left on him, Gray is undeniably the future of the A’s franchise moving forward. Not overpowering but able to use five pitches very well and keep his pitch count under control, it’s more a question of “when” than “if” Gray will win a Cy Young in his future.
His efficiency is on another level in comparison to a lot of starting pitchers in MLB. Since the 2013 season — Gray’s first in the pros — only 18 starters have recorded a lower FIP than his 3.14 over the span of time. When you consider he has dropped his FIP almost a full point from 2014 to this season while increasing his K/9, Gray should only grow more and more into one of the game’s better right arms.
Next: Number 2
2. Chris Archer – 17 GS, 9-5, 2.31, 133, 3.2 WAR
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Up two spots from No. 4 in last month’s instalment, Chris Archer had a lovely June to follow up April and May. He sat down the third most amount of would-be hitters on strikes league-wide this past month with 51. His four wins was also the most for the month of June, going nicely with a tidy 2.63 ERA in the summer’s first month.
The Rays knew what they had with Archer when they traded Price to Detroit last season. On what is easily the strongest rotation in the AL East, Archer’s work has them in the mix for winning the division right now despite Alex Cobb‘s season long absence in addition to Drew Smyly and Jake Odorizzi having missed a significant chunk of time in 2015.
Archer has been on point all season long. Ranking second in strikeouts, tied for second in wins and third in ERA across the American League, the former fifth round pick has blossomed into an ace and has a legitimate shot at a pitching Triple Crown.
Next: Number 1
1. Dallas Keuchel – 17 GS, 10-3, 2.03, 102, 4.6 WAR
Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
The only thing better than Dallas Keuchel‘s pitching so far in 2015 is his ability to grow an outstanding beard that would make any pirate, lumberjack or billy goat envious. With that said, I wonder if the Yankees would ever pursue him, or if Keuchel would entertain signing there… How doesn’t this guy have an official nickname yet?
No surprise, he was in the one spot a month ago and Keuchel is still here. He leads all MLB pitchers in WAR and the AL in wins (10), ERA (2.03) and shutouts (2).
Keuchel makes great use of getting ground ball outs, but he’s also improved his power pitching ways since last season as well. In 2014 at this time, he had 87 punch outs through his first 17 starts. His K/9 is up from 6.6 to 7.4 and his 102 K’s this year rank him fourth in the American League.
No one has thrown more than Keuchel’s 124.1 innings pitched this season either, maintaining that he is an ace capable of working deep into games with high pitch counts for this year’s resurgent Houston Astros. In only two starts this season has he come up short from dealing over 100 pitches in a contest.